Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Inclusive, Just and Resilient

Energy Transition:

GEI Solution and Practices

Global Energy Interconnection Development

and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO)

FOREWORD

The year 2023 is a key milestone in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The Climate

Ambition Summit convened by the United Nations calls for global efforts to accelerate clean

energy development, expand just energy transition, and promote climate resilience. In the context

of global response to climate change, all countries are promoting green and low-carbon energy

transition and striving for greater emission mitigation ambitions. More than 150 countries have

set carbon neutrality goals, and clean energy development is in the ascendant. Moreover, new

challenges emerge for global green and low-carbon energy transition. Intensified geographical

conflicts and extreme weather have affected energy security. Fossil fuel and related energy

consumption industries require industrial development transformation and employment structure

adjustment, and sustainable energy development is facing multiple challenges. The energy system

is in urgent need of an inclusive, just and resilient transition to meet the challenges.

The key to realizing the inclusive, just and resilient energy transiton is to build a modern energy

system that is clean-led, electricity-centered, interconnected, multi-energy collaborative, smart

and efficient, which is essentially the Global Energy Interconnection. GEI is a new power system

with clean energy as the mainstay, strong and smart power grids as the platform, and multi-

energy complementation and mutual supply, coordinated power source-grid-load-storage

interaction, and integration and conversion between electricity and other energy resources as

features. Building GEI can accelerate the transition to clean energy-dominant production, wide-

area and interconnected energy allocation, efficient and clean energy consumption, providing a

basic platform and public carrier for realizing the “three major energy transitions”.

Adhering to the concept of green, low-carbon and sustainable development, the report puts

forward a strategy and solution for global energy interconnection to promote inclusive, just,

and resilient energy transition. Leveraging the Global Energy Internet platform, the “three major

synergies” will drive the “three energy transitions”. This involves the synergistic transition of clean

and fossil energy, energy and industry, and energy and meteorology to promote inclusive, just,

and resilient energy transition. This strategic alignment can effectively build a safe, economic,

intelligent, green, and open modern energy system to achieve sustainable development goals.

Chapter 1

The report is divided into seven chapters.

facing global energy transition and carbon neutrality pathway.

directions and scientific mechanisms of GEI in achieving inclusive, just and resilient transition of

Chapter 3

introduces the new situation and challenges

Chapter 2

elaborates the ideas,

global energy.

analyzes the energy transition pattern of GEI under the goal of global

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Chapter 4

carbon neutrality.

proposes the coordination between clean energy and fossil fuels for

Chapter 5

inclusive energy transition.

proposes the coordination between energy and industry for

proposes the coordination between energy and meteorology for

Chapter 7

Chapter 6

resilient energy transition.

just energy transition.

draws main conclusions.

Based on the GEI carbon neutral solution, the report proposes an innovative, holistic, scientific

and feasible global energy transition scheme, which can coordinate the inclusive, just and

resilient transition of global energy, accelerate the green and low-carbon transition of global

energy, address climate change, and realize sustainable development of humanity. Global

Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO) is looking forward

to working with all sectors of society to promote the inclusive, just and resilient transition of

global energy and make unremitting efforts to achieve the temperature control goals in the Paris

Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

CONTENTS

FOREWORD

New Situation and Challenges of Global Energy Transition��001

1.1 Global Energy Development Situation��002

1.2 New Challenges in Energy Transition ��004

1

GEI Promoting Inclusive, Just and Resilient Transition of Global Energy System��006

2.1 Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition��007

2.1.1 Concepts of Inclusion, Justice and Resilience��007

2.1.2 Connotations of Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition��008

2.2 GEI Advancing Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition��010

2.2.1 GEI Concept��010

2.2.2 Direction of Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition ��011

2.2.3 Principles of Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition��012

2.3 GEI Integrated Assessment Model Framework��013

2.3.1 MESSAGE ��013

2.3.2 Power System Simulation Model��015

2.3.3 Comprehensive Benefit Assessment Model ��016

2

Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway��017

3.1 Global Carbon Neutrality Pathway ��018

3.1.1 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for the Whole Society��018

3.1.2 Mitigation Paths by Sector ��020

3.2 Multi-Energy Complementary Energy Production System with “Wind, Solar, Hydro and

Thermal Power, and Energy Storage”��024

3.2.1 Adequate and Secure Energy Supply��024

3

I

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

3.2.2 Coordinated Transition of Fossil Fuels��025

3.2.3 Energy Production Dominated by Clean Energy��026

3.2.4 Multi-Energy Complementary of “Wind, Solar, Hydro and Thermal Power and

Energy Storage” ��027

3.3 Interconnected and Complementary Energy Consumption System with “Electricity,

Hydrogen, Cooling, Heating and Natural Gas”��030

3.3.1 Accelerated Formation of Electric-Centric Pattern��030

3.3.2 Promotion of Deep De-Carbonization by Green Hydrogen ��031

3.3.3 Efficient and Clean Energy Consumption ��033

3.3.4 Interconnection and Complement of “Electricity, Hydrogen, Cooling,

Heating and Natural Gas”��033

3.4 Energy Allocation System with Multi-Network Integration and Interconnection ��034

3.4.1 Power Configuration System��035

3.4.2 Green Hydrogen Configuration System��039

3.5 Industries and Economic Systems Based on Zero-Carbon Energy ��040

3.5.1 Zero-Carbon Industrial System ��041

3.5.2 Zero-Carbon Economic Development��042

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote

Inclusive Transition��043

4.1 Accelerating Clean Energy Development��044

4.1.1 Development of Clean Energy Bases ��044

4.1.2 Distributed Development of Clean Energy��059

4.2 Fossil Fuel Energy Transition��062

4.2.1 Flexible Transformation��062

4.2.2 Efficient and Clean Utilization��065

4.2.3 Low-Carbon Utilization��066

4.2.4 Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage��069

4.2.5 Scenario Comparison��070

4.3 Construction of Flexible Resource System��072

4.3.1 Development of New-Type Energy Storage Technologies��072

4.3.2 Virtual Power Plant ��077

4.3.3 Electricity-Hydrogen Co-Development��080

4

II

CONTENTS

4.4 Deep Promotion of Novel Electrification��084

4.4.1 Industrial Sector ��084

4.4.2 Transportation Sector��088

4.4.3 Building Sector��092

Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition��094

5.1 Development of Emerging Industries��095

5.1.1 Flourishing Development of New Energy Industry��095

5.1.2 Accelerated Integration of Energy and Information Industry��097

5.1.3 Rapid Growth of Energy Conservation and Environmental

5

6

Protection Industry ��099

5.2 Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries��100

5.2.1 Transformation and Upgrading of High-Energy-Consuming Industries��100

5.2.2 Green Transition of Chemical Industry Driven by Green Hydrogen��103

5.2.3 Regional Industrial Transformation and Upgrading��106

5.3 Interconnection Stimulates Regional Development and Mitigation Synergy��110

5.3.1 Development and Outlook of Global Power Grid Interconnection ��110

5.3.2 Regional Development and Emission Reduction Synergy��113

5.4 Guaranteeing Social Justice��116

5.4.1 Enhancing Energy Economy��116

5.4.2 Improving Energy Accessibility��117

5.4.3 Increasing Decent Jobs��119

Energy-Meteorology Coordination for a Resilient Energy Transition��123

6.1 Climate Change Impacts on Energy and Power Systems��124

6.1.1 Assessment of Climate Resilience Impacts on Energy and

Power Systems ��124

6.1.2 A Mechanistic Framework for Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Energy

and Power Systems ��126

6.2 Coordinated Development of Energy and Meteorology��132

6.2.1 Building Climate-Resilient Power Systems��132

6.2.2 Constructing Climate-Adaptive Energy Systems��137

III

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

6.2.3 Promoting the Integrated Development of Energy and Meteorology

Technologies��141

6.2.4 Establishing Improved Policy and Market Mechanisms��145

Main Conclusions ��148

7.1 GEI Promotes Inclusive Energy Transition��149

7.2 GEI Promotes Just Energy Transition��150

7.3 GEI Promotes Resilient Energy Transition��150

7.4 Comprehensive Benefits of Energy Transition��151

7

IV

New Situation and

Challenges of Global

Energy Transition

1

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

The global energy system is undergoing extensive and profound changes, and

the three elements of the “impossible energy trinity”, i.e., the energy security,

economic viability and sustainability are intricately intertwined^A. In general, the

global green transition is progressing steadily. Under the new situation, inclusive,

just and resilient energy transition is necessary to address new challenges such as

energy security, economic restructuring and climate change.

1.1 Global Energy Development Situation

Energy investment has grown rapidly.

In the post-pandemic era, energy investment fluctuates

because of multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, decoupling and disconnection of global

industrial and supply chains, and rising commodity prices. In recent years, energy investment

has resumed growth across the board, with the electricity sector growing fastest. Global energy

investment reached USD 2.4 trillion in 2022, up 8% year on year^B. Among them, the global

investment in clean energy^Cwas about USD 1.4 trillion, with a growth rate of 12%. Investment in

the electricity sector was close to USD 1 trillion, with renewable power generation, power grid and

energy storage accounting for more than 80%. The investment in energy efficiency enhancement

and end-use energy sectors exceeded USD 600 billion, of which about USD 100 billion was

invested in electric vehicles (EVs). The grid investment was about USD 300 billion.

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Figure 1.1 Global Clean Energy Investment by Sector, 2017—2022

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Source: Xin Bao’an et al., Rethinking the Three Elements of Energy under the Carbon Emission Peak and

Carbon Neutrality Goals, Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42 (9): 3117-3125.

Source: IEA, World Energy Investment 2021, 2021.

A

B

C

Clean energy in this report refers to non-fossil fuels, the same below.

002

1

New Situation and Challenges of Global Energy Transition

Global energy supply remains tight.

After the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict, global energy

prices have risen sharply and the tight balance in the energy market has been aggravated. Energy

security has received unprecedented attention, and many European countries have restarted coal

power generation. Brent crude oil futures hit a new high. The price of TTF natural gas futures in

the Netherlands rose rapidly to its highest level in nearly 10 years. The EU sought new sources

of oil and gas in North America, the Middle East, Africa and other regions, and released the

REPowerEU plan. The UK issued an energy security strategy to accelerate the development of

nuclear power, wind energy, solar energy and hydrogen.

Green and low-carbon transition is set as a clear goal.

Under the framework of the Paris

Agreement, all countries have enhanced their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

to emission mitigation, set carbon neutrality goals, and implemented emission mitigation

requirements through clean energy transition. So far, more than 150 countries have proposed

carbon neutrality goals, covering 88% of global CO₂emissions, 90% of GDP and 85% of

the population. The development of global clean energy is far beyond expectations, and the

proportion of renewable energy capacity continues to rise. In 2022, about 320 GW of renewable

energy capacity was added globally, with a cumulative total of 3380 GW, and the renewable

energy generation reached 8.34 PWh.

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Figure 1.2 Global New Installed Capacity of Renewable Energy

Green and low-carbon technologies are highly active.

Green and low-carbon technologies

have entered an intensive innovation period. Clean, efficient and sustainable energy technologies

have become the symbol of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial

revolution. The phase-out of fossil fuels, large-scale use of clean energy, multi-energy integration,

and re-electrification of end-use energy are accelerating. Wind and solar power generation

technologies are advancing. New energy storage technologies such as compressed air energy

storage, lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries and hydrogen energy storage are highly applicable.

Technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are expected to make breakthroughs. Digital technology

and energy technology are deeply integrated, and carbon capture technology has been

commercialized.

003

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

1.2 New Challenges in Energy Transition

Under the new situation of global development, green and low-carbon energy transition faces

new challenges such as great pressure on energy security and supply guarantee, difficult

transformation of high-emission industries, and aggravated impact of extreme weather.

The rapid growth of new energy brings new challenges to energy supply security.

As the

proportion of clean energy gradually increases and the level of electrification continues to improve,

the focus and mainstay of energy supply guarantee will gradually shift to the power system. The

development of global clean energy is far beyond expectations, and the proportion of renewable

energy capacity continues to rise. In 2021, the global renewable energy capacity accounted

for 38% of the total installed capacity, and the global renewable energy generation accounted

for 28% of the total power generation. In the new stage of low-carbon energy transition, the

mainstay of energy supply has shifted from fossil fuels to clean energy dominated by renewable

energy. The future power system will feature “high shares of renewables and power electronics,

grid load peaks in summer and winter”, while new energy has “large installed capacity and small

power generation” due to its strong dependency on meteorological conditions, which is unable to

maintain power balance and brings challenges to the safe operation of the power grid.

The contradiction in the transformation of energy sector is prominent.

Green and low-

carbon development requires large-scale industrial transformation and upgrading, which brings

severe challenges to the energy sector and high-energy-consuming sectors. Reduced Capacity

and decreased employment caused by industrial restructuring may lead to unbalanced regional

development, and the employment restructuring caused by industrial transformation will further

exacerbate unemployment. Studies have shown that for every job lost in the coal sector, 1.08

jobs are lost in the upstream and downstream industries^A. The global energy transition will lead to

a sharp decline in the number of jobs in the fossil fuel sector from 12.6 million today to 3.1 million

by 2050, with about 80% of these jobs related to oil, gas and coal extraction^B.

Source: Institute of Energy of Peking University, Navigating the Path to a Just Transition: Employment

Implications of China’s Green Transition, 2023.

A

B

Source: Pai S, Emmerling J, Drouet L, et al., Meeting Well-Below 2°C Target Would Increase Energy Sector

Jobs Globally. One Earth, 2021, 4 (7): 1026-1036.

004

1

New Situation and Challenges of Global Energy Transition

Extreme weather poses higher risks to the energy system.

With the large-scale and rapid

development of new energy, climate change and extreme weather have become new threats

to the safe operation of the energy system. The power balance, stable system operation, and

power regulation and management are facing new challenges. The fluctuation, stochasticity and

uncontrollability of renewable energy have affected the safe operation and reliable supply of power

systems. The continuous increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather has led to

a rapid rise in climate sensitivity of power systems. Since 1965, a total of 191 blackouts have

occurred worldwide, 88 of which are related to abnormal weather or changes in meteorological

elements^A. As extreme weather events occur more frequently and affect a wider range, the power

sources, grids, loads and storage infrastructure of new power systems are all more susceptible to

the impact of weather and climate conditions, exacerbating the challenges faced by the security

and stability of energy systems.

Under the new situation, technological and industrial changes, geopolitical conflicts, extreme

weather and other factors will affect the safety, economic viability and sustainability of energy

transition. Therefore, the focus of energy transition should be placed on inclusive, just and resilient

development.

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Source: GEIDCO, Global Energy Interconnection Report 2023, Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2023.

A

005

GEI Promoting Inclusive,

Just and Resilient Transition

of Global Energy System

2

GEI Promoting Inclusive, Just and Resilient Transition of Global Energy System

In the process of implementing carbon neutrality goals and promoting zero-

carbon transition of energy and power system, countries at different development

level need to advance energy transition based on their development stages and

national conditions. It is essential to promote the transition of fossil fuels and

the development of clean energy in a coordinated way, actively address the

transformation of old industries and employment structure adjustment, cope with

climate risks brought by climate extremes, and overcome new challenges in the

process of advancing zero-carbon transition of energy and power system.

2.1 Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition

2.1.1 Concepts of Inclusion, Justice and Resilience

Countries have long paid attention to inclusive, just and resilient energy transition. However,

different international institutions emphasize different aspects in their definitions of the relevant

terms.

Social Inclusion

1

The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) defines “social inclusion” as the

process of improving the terms of participation in society for people who are disadvantaged

on the basis of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion, or economic or other status,

through enhanced opportunities, access to resources, voice and respect for rights. Thus, social

inclusion is both a process and a goal^A.

Just Transition

2

In 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) formally

incorporated the concept of “just transition” into the Paris Agreement, emphasizing that

employment should be prioritized in tackling climate change. Various international institutions have

put forward their own definitions of “just transition”, but there are three common points. First, they

also focus on achieving carbon neutrality, a low-carbon economy and green development goals.

Second, they uphold the people-oriented principle and prioritize employment. They emphasize

that just transition means achieving a green economy in the fairest way possible for all concerned,

creating decent jobs, and leaving no one behind. Third, they emphasize the connection between

green employment and broader economic and social objectives, including the eradication of

poverty, economic development, social governance, and other SDGs.

Source: UN DESA, Leaving No One Behind: The Imperative of Inclusive Development Report on the World

Social Situation 2016, 2016.

A

007

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Table 2.1　Concepts of Just Transition Proposed by International Institutions^A

Institution Concept and connotation

United Nations Framework In the process of addressing climate change, priority should be given to employment.

Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC)

It is necessary to assist developing countries as contracting parties in mitigating the

negative impact of energy transition on the local job markets.

Just transition means achieving a green economy in a manner that is as fair and

inclusive as possible for all concerned, creating decent jobs, and leaving no one

behind.

International Labour

Organization (ILO)

United Nations

Environment Programme

(UNEP)

Just transition should ensure that the shift towards a low-carbon economy is an

equitable, sustainable and reasonable process.

In a national or regional context, just transition is an economy-wide process. It

International Trade Union involves the formulation of plans, policies, and investments to create a future where

Confederation (ITUC)

all employment opportunities are green and decent, with net-zero emissions, poverty

eradication, improved communities, and a robust and resilient economy.

Resilient Development

3

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Climate Resilient

Development Pathways” promote fairness, and enhance adaptability and resilience to the

ongoing climate change by strengthening sustainable development, eradicating poverty, and

reducing inequality. By significantly reducing emissions, climate resilient development can achieve

temperature control goals in the Paris Agreement, and improve the ethics, fairness, and feasibility

required for deep social transformation, in a bid to secure an ideal and livable future for all.

2.1.2 Connotations of Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition

Based on the interpretation of the concepts of inclusion, equity and resilience by international

institutions and academia, this report puts forward the connotations of inclusive, just and resilient

energy transition for zero-carbon transition of energy and power.

Inclusive energy transition

refers to promoting energy transition in a systematic and open

manner, integrating multiple energy sources, development models and technical solutions, and

accelerating global clean development.

Just energy transition

refers to promoting energy transition based on the principles of equality

and win-win situation, coordinating energy with industry, employment and social governance, so

that everyone can enjoy sustainable energy.

Source: Institute of Energy of Peking University, United Nations Development Programme, Navigating the Path

to a Just Transition: Employment Implications of China’s Green Transition, 2023.

A

008

2

GEI Promoting Inclusive, Just and Resilient Transition of Global Energy System

Resilient energy transition

refers to promoting energy transition with innovation and safety

concepts, coordinating the energy system, climate environment and other natural systems, and

enhancing infrastructure resilience to disasters.

Inherent connections among inclusive, just and resilient energy transition:

Inclusive energy transition is a prerequisite.

The key to building a new energy system and a

new power system, both with a focus on clean energy, is to ensure energy security. The core is

to promote the coordinated development of clean energy and fossil fuels, and to ensure synergy

between energy security and energy mitigation during the energy transition process. Therefore,

inclusive energy transition is an important prerequisite for just and resilient energy transition.

Just energy transition is fundamental.

With the people-oriented principle, just energy transition

essentially refers to just transition in employment, fossil fuels and fossil-based industries. It aims to

promote stable development of the fossil fuel industry and the economy and society that develop

based on fossil fuels, and realize clean transition during the development process. Therefore, just

energy transition is the fundamental goal of inclusive and resilient energy transition.

Resilient energy transition is the foundation.

Building a climate-resilient energy system and

improving its resilience will not only help enhance energy security, but also ensure sustainable

energy development. Therefore, resilient energy transition is the physical foundation of inclusive

and just energy transition.

The inclusive development

enhances the climate resilience

The inclusive development

promotes just transition

Resilient

Inclusive

Just

Adequacy

Multi-energy

complementarity

People-centeredness

Coordinated development

Equitable access

Flexibility

Reliability

Interconnection

Efficient interaction

The enhanced resilience booster

clean energy development

The just transition enhances social

equity and clean development

Figure 2.1 The Meaning and Inherent Connection of Inclusive, Just, and Resilient Energy Transition

009

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

2.2 GEI Advancing Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition

Inclusive, just and resilient energy transition is the foundation to ensure green and low-carbon

energy transition and realize carbon neutrality in society as a whole. The core is to build a

new energy system and a new power system dominated by clean energy, and the key lies in

developing Global Energy Interconnection (GEI).

2.2.1 GEI Concept

Energy transition is based on the premise of ensuring energy supply and it aims to achieve green,

low-carbon, and sustainable development. It requires efforts to coordinate development with

mitigation, and ensure security while promoting transition. The goal is to facilitate collaborative

optimization of increasing the use of clean energy and reducing fossil fuel usage. Energy transition

involves the efficient interaction in such links as production, supply, storage, sales and use, the

complementation of wind, photovoltaic, hydro and fossil energy as well as energy storage, and

the integration of electricity, hydrogen, cooling, heating, and gas systems, forming a modern

energy system known as GEI.

GEI is a new energy system dominated by clean energy, centering on electricity, and

characterized by interconnection, multi-energy coordination, safety, efficiency, intelligence and

flexibility. It is also a basic platform and important carrier for large-scale development, extensive

allocation, efficient utilization, flexible conversion, and reliable supply of clean energy. Its core lies

in a new power system with clean energy as the mainstay, strong and smart power grids as the

platform, and multi-energy complementation and mutual supply, coordinated generation-grid-

load-storage interaction, and integration and conversion between electricity and other energy

resources as features. GEI development signifies a lower-carbon energy mix, safer energy supply,

Figure 2.2 Framework of GEI Theory

010

2

GEI Promoting Inclusive, Just and Resilient Transition of Global Energy System

more efficient energy utilization, stronger coordination among all parties, more active technological

innovation, and deeper international cooperation.

GEI development will coordinate all links of production, consumption and allocation to promote

the transformation of the energy system to clean energy-dominant production, extensive

interconnection of energy allocation, and efficient and clean energy consumption. This will

effectively guarantee energy security, enhance energy cost-effectiveness, promote sustainable

energy development, and achieve inclusive, just and resilient transition of global energy

system.

2.2.2 Direction of Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition

The way to promote inclusive, just and resilient energy transition through GEI solution can be

summarized as - leveraging the GEI platform, the “three major synergies” will drive the “three

energy transitions”. This involves the synergistic transition of clean and fossil energy, energy and

industry, and energy and meteorology to promote inclusive, just, and resilient energy transition.

This strategic alignment can effectively build a safe, economic, intelligent, green, and open

modern energy system to achieve sustainable development goals.

inclusive energy transition

, it is necessary to coordinate the synergy between clean and

For the

fossil energy, leveraging the supply security and flexible regulation of fossil energy to expedite the

process of clean transition.

just energy transition

For the

, it is necessary to coordinate the synergy between energy and

industry, utilizing the Global Energy Interconnection platform for industrial rejuvenation, regional

coordinated development, and the improvement of employment and livelihoods.

resilient energy transition

For the

, it is necessary to coordinate the synergy between energy

and meteorology, accelerating the integration and breakthrough of energy and meteorological

technologies, and constructing a climate-adaptive energy power system.

011

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Global carbon neutrality

Goals

Inclusive transition

Just transition

Resilient transition

Collaboration between clean

energy and fossil fuels

Energy and meteorology synergy

Climate-adaptive power system

Climate-adaptive energy system

Energy and industry synergy

Energy

system

Industrial transition and

upgrading

Development of clean energy

Development transition of

fossil fuels

Regional coordinated

development

transition

Development of energy-mete-

orology integration technology

Construction of flexibility

resource systems

Driving decent employment

Construction of new type

electrification

Improving policies and market

mechanisms

Enhancing energy accessibility

Global energy interconnection solution

Multi-energy complementary energy production

system of wind, solar, hydro, thermal and storage

Interconnected energy consumption system of

electricity, hydrogen, cooling, heating and gas

Solution

Concept

Multi-network integration and interconnected

energy allocation system

Industry and economic system based on zero

carbon energy

Global energy interconnection

Integrated

innovation

Clean

production

Electrified

consumption

Platform-based

allocation

Digitalization of

business models

Figure 2.3 The Concept of GEI Promoting Inclusive, Just, and Resilient Energy Transition

2.2.3 Principles of Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition

Inclusive, just and resilient energy transition should follow three principles.

First, it is necessary to coordinate energy security and energy transition.

Security is the

foundation and prerequisite for development. The connotation and requirements of energy security

vary between developed and developing countries, as they are at different stages of development.

Ensuring the security of energy supply is the top priority for developing countries due to the large

energy supply and demand gap. Developed countries need to take the lead in achieving net-zero

emissions in the energy and power sectors. For them, ensuring energy security and stability under

various extreme conditions is a major challenge. Under the requirement of global implementation

of carbon neutrality goals, it is necessary to properly coordinate the relationship between safe

energy supply and clean energy development in the process of promoting clean and low-carbon

energy transition. They need to follow the principle of building the new before discarding the old

and give full play to the role of fossil fuels in guaranteeing basic energy supply and serving as

strategic standbys, so as to better support the development of clean energy.

Second, it is necessary to coordinate energy and industry, as well as employment and

regional development.

Although different countries are at different stages of development and

have different paths for energy transition, they all face their own challenges. Only by making

concerted efforts and strengthening cooperation in an all-round way can the international

012

2

GEI Promoting Inclusive, Just and Resilient Transition of Global Energy System

community promote transition better and faster. It is necessary to leverage the complementary

advantages of various countries in resources, technologies and markets to strengthen cooperation

in infrastructure, low-carbon technologies and green industries, promote global clean energy

development, and expedite the interconnection of energy facilities with power grids as a carrier.

Efforts should be made to replace old growth drivers with new ones in traditional and emerging

industries in various countries, accelerate the replacement of traditional fossil fuel employment

with green and decent employment, promote the coordinated development of regional economy,

society and energy, and provide a solid guarantee for clean energy transition.

Third, it is necessary to coordinate mitigation and adaptation to climate change of energy

system.

Various countries should adhere to the principle of common but different responsibilities,

equity and respective capabilities, fully implement the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement, and

promote the establishment of a fair and reasonable climate governance system featuring win-win

cooperation. At present, the international community emphasizes mitigation of climate change

more than adaptation during climate governance. It is necessary to coordinate energy and power

for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, pay more attention to coping with climate risks

in the process of energy and power planning and operation, and take a green, low-carbon and

sustainable development path together.

2.3 GEI Integrated Assessment Model Framework

The global energy-economy-climate integrated assessment model is used to study the global

energy and power transition, climate change impact assessment and sustainable economic

and social development. Some institutions, including the GEIDCO and the International Institute

for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), have jointly carried out research on GEI carbon neutrality,

forming a comprehensive global climate change assessment platform integrating energy system

optimization, power system simulation, economic and social prediction, climate change impact

and comprehensive benefit analysis. The platform is used for quantitative assessment of the

paths, technologies, costs and benefits of global energy transition.

2.3.1 MESSAGE

The Model of Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts

(MESSAGE) includes an energy demand forecasting model, an energy technology model and an

energy system optimization model.

Energy Demand Forecasting Model

1

The energy demand module is used to forecast the energy demand of end-use sectors such as

industry, transport and building. To study the future electrification development law of energy

use in end-use sectors and link it with the end-use energy demand of the MESSAGE, the

energy demand forecasting module uses S-curve analysis to forecast the per capita industrial

energy consumption and land transport energy consumption of the industry and transport

sectors respectively. It also uses the kernel least mean square algorithm to forecast the energy

consumption of the building sector, and provides a forecast of the energy consumption changes

in the end-use sectors in the future.

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Transport

Residential/Commercial Electricity

Residential/Commercial Heat

Industrial Electricity

Industrial Heat

Coal

Oil

Gas

District Heat

Electricity

Coal

Oil

Gas

District Heat

Electricity

Primary Gas

Primary Oil

Primary Coal

Coal Resources

014

2

GEI Promoting Inclusive, Just and Resilient Transition of Global Energy System

Energy Technology Model

2

Global Renewable-energy Exploitation Analysis platform (GREAN): Large-scale development and

utilization of clean energy requires scientific and accurate quantitative assessment of resources.

GEIDCO has proposed a set of well-defined, systematic, comprehensive and operable algorithms,

and built a clean energy resource evaluation system and a refined digital assessment model.

On the basis of establishing a sound global clean energy resource database, it has realized the

systematic calculation and quantitative assessment of theoretical potential, technical potential

installed capacity and economic potential installed capacity of hydroenergy, wind energy and

solar energy from a global perspective, and formed the GREAN. Besides, GEIDCO has effectively

improved the accuracy and timeliness of global clean energy resource assessment, providing

important support for the large-scale development and utilization of clean energy at country level.

Energy technology model: The innovation and progress of zero-carbon and negative emission

technologies play a decisive role in achieving society-wide carbon emission reduction. They

encompass more than 30 key technologies in seven major areas, including clean replacement,

electricity replacement, energy interconnection, large-scale energy storage, hydrogen energy

and electrofuel raw materials, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), as well as digital

and intelligent technologies. On the basis of the research on the current application status and

typical projects, GEIDCO closely integrates carbon neutrality implementation pathways, proposes

technology development trends and key research and development (R&D) directions, and

assesses economic trends based on technology maturity assessment methods and multiple linear

regression + artificial neural network cost prediction methods.

Energy System Optimization Model

3

The MESSAGE optimizes the global energy system as a whole, with the goal of meeting energy

supply demand and minimizing the costs. Taking climate change, resource potential, energy

supply-demand balance, production capacity and changes in energy system inventory as

constraints, it comprehensively considers various aspects of resource extraction, intermediate

conversion, and end-use energy consumption, and prioritizes the industries, transportation, and

’

building sectors technological efficiency and cost parameters. It aims to establish a framework for

cross-national and cross-continental electricity trade, and form a comprehensive energy system

technology portfolio that satisfies constraints such as climate change.

2.3.2 Power System Simulation Model

GEIDCO has built a comprehensive database of GEI covering multi-dimensional indicators such

as global economy, population, energy and power. With the goal of meeting energy demand in a

green and clean way, GEIDCO takes economic, social, resource and environmental factors into

overall consideration to develop a GEI planning model.

Power Demand Forecasting Model

1

The demand forecasting model mainly includes three parts: energy service demand, final energy

demand and primary energy demand. This model takes into consideration various factors such

as population and economic growth, resource endowment, industrial development and structural

015

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

adjustment, technological innovation and energy efficiency enhancement, energy transition and

electricity replacement, environmental and climate change constraints, energy and power planning

of different countries, and different development stages of different countries and regions.

Combining the “top-down” and “bottom-up” methods, the model comprehensively considers the

impacts of such factors as economic and social development, technological progress, efficiency

enhancement, and energy policies on energy demand, and analyzes and predicts the global,

continental, and national energy and power demand.

Power Source Installed Capacity Planning Model

2

The power source installed capacity planning model aims to minimize the overall social costs,

including construction costs, operating and maintenance costs and fuel costs, during the planning

period. It strives to determine the planned annual installed capacity, various components of the

installed capacity, development timeline, and carbon emissions after considering such constraints

as energy policies, environment, energy resources, and power balance.

2.3.3 Comprehensive Beneﬁt Assessment Model

Climate Impact Assessment Model

1

The climate impact assessment model is used to assess various direct and indirect losses

and systematic impacts caused by climate change. By connecting the Beijing Climate Centre

Simple Earth System Model (BCC-SESM) and the MESSAGE integrated assessment model,

the climate impact assessment model uses the data of emissions, climate, and economic and

social scenarios to study global climate losses by sector, including market sectors such as

meteorological disasters, agriculture, forestry, water resources and energy consumption, as well

as non-market sectors such as ecosystems, sea level rises and human health.

Comprehensive Benefit Assessment Model

2

Comprehensive benefit analysis is an assessment of the integrated impact on the global

economy, society, environment and health, based on the energy transition results and emission

reduction effects.

In terms of the economy and society, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are adopted

to carry out research on the comprehensive benefit generated by the global carbon neutrality

’

solutions in such aspects as policy mechanisms, industrial structure, international trade, people s

well-being and employment.

In terms of the environment and health, the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and

Synergies (GAINS) model is used to calculate the pollutant emission reduction benefit of the global

carbon neutrality scenarios, and the health benefit.

016

Global Energy

Interconnection Carbon

Neutrality Pathway

3

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

The Global Energy Interconnection is a modern energy system dominated by

clean energy and centered on electricity, featuring interconnectivity and multi-

energy fusion, which will promote the transition of energy production to clean

energy-dominated system, of energy allocation to wide-area interconnection,

and of energy consumption to high efficiency and cleanliness. The Global Energy

Interconnection will better promote the energy and power industry and all sectors

of society to realize an inclusive, just and resilient transition in the process of

achieving the goal of global carbon neutrality through the construction of an

energy production system with “wind, solar, hydro and thermal power, and energy

storage” multi-energy complement, “electricity, hydrogen, cooling, heating and

natural gas” interconnected and complementary energy consumption system,

interconnected energy allocation system with multi-grid integration, and zero-

carbon energy-based industrial and economic systems.

3.1 Global Carbon Neutrality Pathway

The whole society will achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in three stages: reaching the carbon

emissions peak as early as possible, rapid mitigation, and comprehensive neutrality. The

mitigation paths for energy production, energy utilization (including industries, transportation,

and construction sectors), industrial processes, agriculture, forest and land use (AFOLU), waste

disposal, carbon removal and other fields^Aare established according to different mitigation

characteristics, which together constitute the global carbon neutrality pathway.

3.1.1 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for the Whole Society

The ﬁrst stage is to reach the carbon emissions peak as early as possible.

In order to peak

carbon emissions in the whole society, the key is to peak energy emissions as early as possible

and control the peak at a reasonable level, and the core is to control the peaking of fossil fuels

consumption. The priority is given to controlling the coal power scale and layout optimization, and

the new energy demand is primarily satisfied by clean energy. The carbon mitigation at this stage

focuses on the growth rate and development scale of clean energy. Besides, the construction of

the Global Energy Interconnection enables the optimal allocation of clean energy and accelerates

the de-carbonization of the energy system. Countries have further reinforced their Intended

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reach carbon emissions peak in the whole society

by 2030, with carbon dioxide emissions peaking at around 44.5 gigatonnes. The carbon dioxide

According to the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

are divided into energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, forestry and other land use, waste,

etc. Among others, energy carbon emissions refer to the GHG emissions in all fields for the purpose of

obtaining energy, and carbon emissions from industrial processes mainly refer to the GHGs generated from the

production processes (such as cement production).

A

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Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

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emissions from energy activities peak at 36 gigatonnes, and global carbon capture demonstration

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The second stage is rapid mitigation.

The key is to transform the energy system and

comprehensively build the Global Energy Interconnection, so as to promote the rapid decline in

emissions in the energy and power sectors and the whole society. By 2050, carbon emissions

from energy activities will be reduced to 9.2 gigatonnes, down about 75% from carbon emissions

peak. The carbon capture technology is applied on a large scale and forestry carbon sinks are

developed. Those major developed countries take the lead in achieving carbon neutrality.

The third stage is comprehensive neutrality.

The key is to accelerate the replacement of

fossil fuels stocks and achieve carbon neutrality for the whole society by 2060. By 2060, carbon

emissions from energy activities will be reduced to 3.8 gigatonnes, down about 90% compared

to the carbon emissions peak; carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes will be reduced

to 2 gigatonnes. With 3.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide to be removed by low-carbon and zero-

carbon technologies, and 3.8 gigatonnes of negative emissions from carbon sinks provided by

agriculture, forest and land use, the world will achieve carbon neutrality for the whole society by

2060. The cumulative carbon emissions of the Global Energy Interconnection carbon neutrality

pathway meet the requirements of global carbon budget and ensure that the global temperature

rise is controlled within the temperature control targets of the Paris Agreement.

Table 3.1 Mitigation Paths by Sector in the Whole Society

Unit: GtCO₂

2021

2025

2050

2060

Energy activities

Industrial processes

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3.75

2.0

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–0.2

44.22

Carbon removal (CCUS, BECCS, and DAC)

Total carbon emissions

–3.5

–1.45

019

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

3.1.2 Mitigation Paths by Sector

Energy production and consumption are the sectors with the largest emissions reduction

potential, accounting for approximately two-thirds of the total emissions reduction.

Compared with the peak year, the carbon emission reductions of all sectors in the whole

society will reach 45.9 gigatonnes by 2060. Among others, the emission reductions of energy

production reach 14.53 gigatonnes, which mainly relies on the rapid development of clean energy

in the power sector. Energy consumption can be divided into three major areas of industries,

transportation, and building, with total emission reductions of 17.62 gigatonnes, which mainly

relies on the electricity replacement to significantly reduce the combustion of fossil fuels and on

the in-depth de-carbonization of green hydrogen in the industrial and transportation sectors. The

carbon removal technologies (CCUS, BECCS, DAC) achieve emission reductions of about 3.25

gigatonnes, including the capture of carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion as well as the

production process of hydrogen energy and biomass liquid fuel in the power sector and industrial

sector, which are key technologies to promote the negative emissions in the energy sector. The

agriculture, forest and land use has emission reductions of 8.5 gigatonnes, which mainly relies

on the year-on-year reduction of carbon emissions due to change in land use and the increase

in forest carbon sinks, providing negative emissions in the energy sector and promoting the

realization of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions for the whole of society. The emission reductions

of industrial processes reach about 1.8 gigatonnes, with the incremental increase in carbon

dioxide emissions basically offset by carbon capture; and the emission reductions of waste is

about 200 million tonnes.

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Figure 3.2 Prospects for the Global Mitigation Process by Sector

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3

Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

Emission Reduction in the Energy Production Sector

1

The energy production sector will peak carbon emissions by 2030, reduce carbon emissions

to 2.54 gigatonnes by 2050, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 by such initiatives as

strictly controlling total energy consumption and reducing energy intensity, accelerating the

implementation of clean energy replacement, and building the Global Energy Interconnection.

Power production has the fastest de-carbonization rate and the largest de-carbonization scale in

the energy production sector. The carbon emissions from power production will peak by 2030,

and reduce to 2.13 gigatonnes by 2050, with net-zero emissions to be achieved by 2060. The

power system will contribute more than 80% to the process of carbon neutrality. Apart from its

own emission reduction, the power system can also promote the electricity replacement in energy

consumption and help emission reduction from energy consumption. The hydrogen energy

produced by electrohydrogen production can be applied to fields that are difficult to be directly

electrified such as chemical industry, metallurgy, and aviation, thus achieving in-depth electricity

replacement.

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Emission Reduction in the Industrial Sector

2

The industrial sector will peak carbon emissions by 2030, and reduce carbon emissions to about

1.4 gigatonnes and 200 million tonnes by 2050 and 2060, respectively, by such initiatives as

promoting the industrial structure upgrading, accelerating the low-carbon energy consumption,

facilitating the recycling of resource utilization, advancing the clean production process, and

establishing a green manufacturing supporting system.

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Emission Reduction in the Transportation Sector

3

The transportation sector will peak carbon emissions by 2030, and reduce carbon emissions to

about 2.2 gigatonnes and 600 million tonnes by 2050 and 2060, respectively, by such initiatives

as speeding up the electricity replacement and substitution of green fuels, improving the efficiency

of energy utilization, optimizing the transportation structure, and developing new technologies and

modes of travel.

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Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

Emission Reduction in the Building Sector

4

The building sector will reduce carbon emissions to about 800 million tonnes and 200 million

tonnes by 2050 and 2060, respectively by such initiatives as implementing in-depth electricity

replacement, improving the efficiency of energy utilization, and developing green consumption

standards to promote the gradual decline in carbon dioxide emissions in the construction

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Emission Reduction in the AFOLU Sector

5

The agriculture, forest and land use sector will achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions around

2035, and realize net negative carbon dioxide emissions of 3.2 gigatonnes and 3.8 gigatonnes

in 2050 and 2060, respectively by such initiatives as improving farmland and animal husbandry

management, reinforcing ecosystems, increasing forestry carbon sinks, and enhancing soil

carbon sequestration potential to achieve a significant shift from carbon source to carbon

sink.

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3.2 Multi-Energy Complementary Energy Production System with “Wind,

Solar, Hydro and Thermal Power, and Energy Storage”

Efforts have been made to build the Global Energy Interconnection to realize the goal of carbon

neutrality, which will accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system,

and the transition of energy production needs from fossil fuels-led system to a clean energy-

dominated energy production system with “wind, solar, hydro and thermal power, and energy

storage” multi-energy complement. The emphasis is placed on the large-scale development,

wide-range allocation and high-efficiency utilization of clean energy. In the future, the clean

and zero-carbon energy supply system will be characterized by secure and adequate energy

supply, orderly transition of fossil fuels, transition of energy production to a clean energy-

dominated system with “wind, solar, hydro and thermal power, and energy storage” multi-energy

complement.

3.2.1 Adequate and Secure Energy Supply

Primary energy production meets the needs of economic and social development.

In

2022, the total primary energy production in the world was 20.6 gigatonnes of standard coal

equivalent^A, which will reach a peak of about 22.9 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent

by 2030, and decrease to 19.3 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent and 19 gigatonnes of

standard coal equivalent (using the thermal equivalent method) by 2050 and 2060, respectively,

with per capita energy consumption exceeding 1.9 tonnes of standard coal equivalent, ensuring

adequate energy supply and energy security. In terms of the energy supply, in-depth substitution

of clean energy will be achieved, and coordinated development of clean energy including

hydropower, wind power, PV power and energy storage will be conducted to promote the global

consumption of clean electricity. It is estimated that the global clean energy resources exceed

100 PW, which can meet global energy needs if only 5% of them are developed.

Source: Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2023, 2023.

A

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Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

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3.2.2 Coordinated Transition of Fossil Fuels

The consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas has successively peaked and decreased.

In 2022, the total consumption of fossil fuels in the world was about 16.85 gigatonnes, which is

expected to peak at about 17.7 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent by 2025. After reaching

its peak, the total consumption of fossil fuels will rapidly decrease to about 5.7 gigatonnes

of standard coal equivalent and 2.8 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent by 2050 and

2060, respectively. Among others, the total coal consumption has entered the plateau phase

and is gradually decreasing. By 2050 and 2060, the coal consumption will decrease to 1.12

gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent and 570 million tonnes of standard coal equivalent (Mtce),

respectively. The total oil consumption will reach its peak of about 4.9 gigatonnes by 2025. After

reaching its peak, the oil consumption will rapidly decrease to 1.45 gigatonnes and 760 million

tonnes by 2050 and 2060 respectively. Besides, the total consumption of natural gas will reach

its peak of about 4.1 trillion cubic meters around 2030. By 2050 and 2060, the natural gas

consumption will decrease to 1.9 trillion cubic meters and 0.9 trillion cubic meters, respectively.

The shift of power generation from fossil fuels is advancing stably.

In the near to medium

term, the installed capacity of coal-fired plants will increase to a certain extent. By 2035, the

installed capacity of coal-fired plants will increase by 12% to 2,480 GW from the installed capacity

of 2,210 GW in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of less than 1%. After 2035, the

transition of coal power will accelerate, with an average annual exit rate of about 3%, and the

installed capacity will fall to 1,580 GW by 2050. The natural gas power generation is mainly used

as peak-shaving power sources, and its installed capacity will increase first and then decrease

in the future. By 2035, the installed capacity will increase to 2,280 GW from 1,820 GW in 2021,

and then decrease to 2,100 GW in 2050. In the future, the power generation from fossil fuels will

mainly play a role of secure supply, flexible adjustment and emergency reserve guarantee, with

the utilization hours and power generation to be significantly reduced. By 2035 and 2050, the

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Figure 3.9 Global Fossil Fuels Phase-Out Paths and Milestones

coal-fired power generation will decrease to 7.3 PWh and 3.4 PWh respectively from 9.5 PWh

in 2021, while natural gas power generation will decrease to 5.6 PWh and 4.8 PWh respectively

from 6.3 PWh in 2021.

3.2.3 Energy Production Dominated by Clean Energy

Clean energy is gradually becoming the dominant energy source.

In terms of the energy

supply, in-depth substitution of clean energy will be accelerated, and coordinated development

of clean energy including hydropower, wind power, PV power and energy storage will be

conducted to enable clean energy to quickly become the dominant energy source. Around 2040,

clean energy will overtake fossil fuels to become the main source for energy supply. By 2050,

the proportion of clean energy in primary energy will reach 70% (using the thermal equivalent

method), with hydropower accounting for 7%, nuclear energy accounting for 9%, biomass energy

accounting for 18%, and other renewables such as wind and PV accounting for 36%. By 2060,

the proportion of clean energy in primary energy will reach 85% (using the thermal equivalent

method), with hydropower accounting for 7%, nuclear energy accounting for 10%, biomass

energy accounting for 21%, and other renewables such as wind and PV accounting for 47%. The

proportion of clean energy in power generation will gradually increase to 73.5% by 2035 from

38.8% in 2021, and further increase to 90.5% by 2050.

026

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Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

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Power Capacity Structure by 2050

(Left: Primary Energy Structure, Right: Installed Power Capacity Structure)

3.2.4 Multi-Energy Complementary of “Wind, Solar, Hydro and Thermal Power and

Energy Storage”

A multi-energy complement pattern of “wind, solar, hydro and thermal power and energy

storage” will be formed for the power production.

Currently, power production is dominated

by thermal power. In 2021, the installed capacity of coal power, natural gas power and other

thermal power accounted for more than half of the total installed capacity, reaching 55%, and the

proportion of wind power, solar power and hydropower was 10%, 10% and 15%, respectively.

In the future, thermal power will shift from “power-type” to “capacity-type”, and its proportion

is declining in installed capacity, which mainly plays a role of secure supply, flexible adjustment

and emergency reserve guarantee, with the number of hours of utilization of power generation

equipment dropping significantly, and power generation capacity decreasing. By 2035 and

2050, the total installed capacity of global power supply will increase to 20.5 TW and 37.3 TW

respectively from 7.9 TW in 2021 and the proportion of thermal power will drop to 24% and

10% in terms of installed capacity, respectively. With the coordinated development of clean

energy such as wind power, PV power and hydropower and energy storage, its installed capacity

continues to rise. The proportion of installed power capacity using clean energy will increase

to 76% and 90% respectively by 2035 and 2050. By 2050, the installed capacity of pumped

storage and electrochemical energy storage will reach 740 GW and 3,030 GW, respectively. A

certain amount of installed power capacity using fossil fuels will be retained as emergency power

sources, which is capable of ensuring the security of power supply under extreme weather

conditions.

027

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

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Figure 3.11 Projection of Global Installed Capacity and Structure

Column 3.1

National Demonstration Project of Wind Power, PV Power,

Energy Storage and Power Transmission in China

The national demonstration project of wind power, PV power, energy storage and power

transmission in China, which was invested and constructed by State Grid Corporation of

China, is the world’s largest comprehensive utilization demonstration project of new energy

that integrates wind power, PV power, energy storage, and intelligent power transmission.

This demonstration project focuses on wind and PV power generation control and energy

storage system integration technology. Through joint operation and optimal scheduling, it

realizes the control objectives of new energy power generation such as smoothing output,

planned tracking, peak shaving and valley filling, and frequency regulation, which provides

solutions to the problems of large-scale centralized development and integrated application

of new energy. Since it was put into operation, the project has registered a total on-grid

energy of over 10 TWh. The demonstration project was developed in two phases. In the

first phase of the project constructed were 98.5 MW wind power, 40 MW PV power, 20

MW energy storage, and a 220 kV intelligent substation, which were put into operation

in December 2011. In the second phase of the project constructed were 350 MW wind

power and 60 MW PV power, which were put into operation successively in 2013 and

2014. Besides, 50 MW intelligent wind power equipment was put into operation at the end

of 2021, while 3 MW cascade utilization energy storage and 10 MW virtual synchronous

generator for energy storage commenced production in 2018; the remaining part of the

energy storage is being actively promoted.

028

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Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

In this project, it is planned to construct 500 MW of wind power, 100 MW of PV power,

and 70 MW of energy storage, which will be connected to the Zhangbei 1000 kV Ultra-

High Voltage Substation and transmitted through the Zhangbei-Xiong’an Ultra-High

Voltage Project. A total of 186 wind turbines of eight types are applied in the project, with

a total installed capacity of 500 MW. Besides, photovoltaic equipment of five types and

with 5 tracking methods, as well as fixed photovoltaic equipment are used in the project,

with a total installed capacity of 100 MW. In this project, various energy storage systems

such as lithium iron phosphate, flow battery, lead-acid battery, lithium-titanate battery,

cascade utilization battery, and virtual synchronous generator for energy storage have been

utilized. The first phase of energy storage has been completed, with a total capacity of 20

MW/83,500 kWh, and partial energy storage in the second phase has been completed

with a capacity of 13 MW/12,300 kWh.

Currently, this project is the world’s largest demonstration project of wind power, PV

power, energy storage and power transmission that has been put into operation. In

terms of wind power, PV power and energy storage, it is also the China’s largest source-

connected wind power plant, China’s largest multi-type grid-connected photovoltaic

power station, and the world’s largest multi-type chemical energy storage power station.

In terms of power transmission, the project is the first to apply the wind, PV, storage and

transmission joint load generation control and dispatch mode. It also developed the new

energy dummy synchronizers of wind fan, PV and power plant energy storage, the first

application of dummy synchronizer technology to large grid, leading the new energy sector

towards adjustable and controllable development.

Figure 1 National Demonstration Project of Wind Power, PV Power,

Energy Storage and Power Transmission in China^A

Source: China Electric Power News, Embracing Wind and Solar, Storing Green for the Future - A Documentary

on the Creation of a 'New Highland' for Clean Energy Development and Utilization by North China Power,

https://www.cpnn.com.cn/news/nytt/202210/t20221011_1558757.html

A

029

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

3.3 Interconnected and Complementary Energy Consumption System with

“Electricity, Hydrogen, Cooling, Heating and Natural Gas”

The Global Energy Interconnection promotes the electrification of final energy consumption,

so as to form an “electricity, hydrogen, cooling, heating and natural gas” interconnected and

complementary energy consumption system centered on electricity. Clean energy hydrogen

production from water electrolysis (green hydrogen) will gradually become economically

competitive, which will promote the de-carbonization of final energy utilization, and gradually

form an energy consumption pattern centered on electricity, with synergy of electricity, hydrogen,

cooling, heating and natural gas, direct utilization of renewable energy and synthetic fuels as the

supplement. In the future, the clean and efficient energy consumption system will exhibits four

characteristics: the accelerated formation of electric-centric pattern, the promotion of deep de-

carbonization by green hydrogen, the shift to efficient and clean energy consumption, and the

interconnection and complement of “electricity, hydrogen, cooling, heating and natural gas”.

3.3.1 Accelerated Formation of Electric-Centric Pattern

An electric-centric pattern is formed for energy consumption.

In 2020, the total final energy

consumption in the world registered 13.7 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent. The combined

influence of population and economic growth, energy efficiency improvement, and other factors

have driven global final energy consumption to rise first and then fall. By 2035, the total final

energy consumption will reach its peak of about 16.7 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent, and

the global electricity consumption will reach about 50 PWh, with an electrification level (including

hydrogen production electricity) of 34%. By 2050, the total final energy consumption will drop

to 15.1 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent. Since the electricity is a clean and efficient

secondary energy, accelerating electrification allows for promoting the global consumption of

clean electricity. The global electricity consumption will rise to 82 PWh, with an electrification level

(including hydrogen production electricity) of 63%, and hydrogen energy accounts for nearly 10%.

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030

3

Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

Traditional electricity consumption, direct electricity replacement, indirect electricity

replacement, and the “non-energy utilization” of electricity promote the rapid de-

carbonization in final energy consumption. Traditional electricity consumption

refers to

fields that have already been electrified and need to be widely popularized, such as household

appliances of electric lighting and cooking. At present, electrification has been basically achieved

in lighting and other fields. The electricity consumption scale of lighting is expected to reach

7-8 PWh by 2050, and its proportion in total electricity consumption will drop to around 10%.

Direct electricity replacement

refers to fields that have conditions for electrification but require

technological progress to improve economy, such as electric kilns, electric furnace metallurgy,

electric vehicles, electric steam boilers, induction cookers, etc. The electricity replacement created

by electric heating (cooling) technology and electric traction technology mainly for electric vehicles

is expected to become the main growth point of electricity demand in the near to medium term.

By 2050, the electricity consumption scale of electric traction is expected to reach 30-35 PWh,

and its proportion in total electricity consumption will decrease to around 40%, which will still be

the largest electricity load. By 2050, the electricity consumption scale of electric heating (cooling)

is expected to reach 15-19 PWh, accounting for about 20% of total electricity consumption.

Indirect electricity replacement

refers to fields that are currently difficult to be electrified

directly, such as aviation, navigation, chemicals, high-end heating, etc. The key to realizing

de-carbonization in these fields is the use of technology of electrosynthesis of fuel, including

Non-energy utilization of electricity

electrohydrogen production.

refers to the technology of

electrosynthesis of raw materials, which uses clean electricity to convert carbon dioxide, water,

nitrogen, etc. into methane, methanol, and ammonia. It can not only be used as fuel for energy

systems, but also as chemical raw materials that can be deeply integrated with existing chemical

production systems to produce various essential materials for human life. Electrochemical

technology, especially the indirect electricity replacement and non-energy utilization of electricity

brought by electrosynthesis of materials and raw materials (P2X) represented by electrohydrogen

production, will further expand the field of electricity consumption, showing huge development

potential. It is expected that the electricity consumption scale will reach 10-20 PWh by 2050,

accounting for about 20%. The scale of information electricity consumption is expected to be 7-9

PWh, accounting for about 10% of the total electricity consumption.

3.3.2 Promotion of Deep De-Carbonization by Green Hydrogen

Hydrogen energy is a highly efficient energy source that can be utilized directly at the end-

user, which can be produced by clean energy, and will play a vital part in the process of clean

energy transition. Hydrogen energy mainly has three major functions in the transition of energy

consumption: deep de-carbonization, flexible energy storage, and providing raw materials.

Realizing the deep de-carbonization.

It is difficult to directly apply electricity to achieve de-

carbonization in such fields as aviation, navigation, industrial high-quality heating, chemical

industry, and metallurgy. The electrification in these fields can be achieved indirectly by producing

hydrogen gas through clean electricity. Hydrogen also plays a key role as a link between clean

energy and final energy consumption fields that are difficult to use electricity directly. Global

demand for green hydrogen is expected to reach 360 million tonnes by 2050, with final hydrogen

consumption accounting for about 10% of the total.

031

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

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Ensuring flexible adjustment in full time scale.

As a kind of flexible load, electrohydrogen

production responds to second-level, minute-level, and hourly power adjustments in the power

system and functions as a general short-term energy storage. Meanwhile, in addition to the final

direct energy consumption, the surplus of hydrogen and its derived synthetic fuels are stored

for a long period of time, which are converted back into electricity through power generation

equipment such as fuel battery or gas turbine in case of electricity shortage, making it easier to

achieve large-scale long-term energy storage compared to direct electricity storage. By 2050, the

global electricity consumption of hydrogen production is expected to account for 20% of the total

electricity consumption in the whole society. There is about 60 million tonnes of hydrogen that

can be used as weekly and monthly long-term energy storage to cope with balance of supply and

demand in the power system over a longer period of time, which is also an important guarantee

for the power system to respond to extreme weather events. Electrohydrogen production

technology can coexist harmoniously with power generation using clean energy, which vigorously

promotes the development of clean energy.

Providing industrial raw materials.

Apart from being used as an energy source, hydrogen is also

a vital industrial raw material, which can be widely used in chemical, petrochemical, electronics,

metallurgy and other fields. The technology of electrosynthesis of fuel and raw material (P2X)

such as electrohydrogen production is an important way to reduce carbon emissions in these

sectors. With the use of raw materials such as water, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen, and with

clean electricity as the driving force, P2X technology can be used to produce chemical products

including methane, methanol, ethylene, and benzene, which can also achieve carbon solidification

and effective utilization, further promoting the deep de-carbonization in the whole society.

Hydrogen not only acts as a link between energy production and energy consumption, but also

contributes to realize the deep integration of the energy system and social production. Green

hydrogen is the central link of this “energy-matter conversion system”. It is estimated that about

70 million tonnes of hydrogen will be used to provide industrial raw materials by 2050.

032

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Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

3.3.3 Efﬁcient and Clean Energy Consumption

The efﬁciency of energy consumption has been continuously improved.

Energy conservation

and efficiency improvement are the “first energy”, and promoting energy transition, achieving

carbon neutrality, improving energy using efficiency, and reducing carbon emissions from the

source are the priority among priorities. With the new technologies, new processes and new

standards adopted, advancement in energy efficiency in key areas such as industries, building,

transportation, and residential life has been constantly improved, and energy consumption has

been developed towards clean, electrified, and reduced. With low-carbon and energy-saving

production and transformation carried out, through advocating the whole society, the people’s

awareness of conservation has been continuously improved, and a low-carbon and green

production and lifestyle has been gradually formed. By 2030, the energy intensity will be reduced

from 2.2 tons of standard coal per 10,000 US dollars in 2020 to 1.9 tons of standard coal per

10,000 US dollars (constant price in 2020). By 2050 and 2060, the energy intensity will be further

reduced by 50% and 65% based on 2030 levels. The per capita energy consumption intensity

will also gradually decrease. By 2050 and 2060, the per capita energy consumption will drop

from the current 2.6 tons of standard coal per person per year to 2.0 tons of standard coal per

person per year and 1.9 tons of standard coal per year per person per year, respectively. Under

the joint effect of energy saving and efficiency improvement and making full use of high-efficiency

energy such as electric energy, the per capita energy service will be greatly improved compared

with the current level by 2060, and the use of less energy will meet the greater demand for energy

services.

3.3.4 Interconnection and Complement of “Electricity, Hydrogen, Cooling, Heating

and Natural Gas”

Energy consumption will form an interconnected and complementary pattern of “electricity,

hydrogen, cooling, heating and natural gas”.

Taking electricity as the center and multi-

energy complementarity and flexible conversion such as “electricity, hydrogen, cooling, heating

and natural gas” are the trend, and a high degree of electrification will become a prominent

feature of the future economy and society, and will exert an increasingly important effect. Clean

energy water electrolysis hydrogen production (green hydrogen) will gradually have economic

competitiveness, which promotes the de-carbonization of final energy consumption, and gradually

forms an energy consumption pattern with electricity as the center, electricity collaboration with

hydrogen and cold and hot gas, and direct utilization of renewables and synthetic fuels as the

supplement. It is estimated that by 2035, the electrification rate of the whole society (including

electricity for hydrogen production) will be about 34%, and hydrogen energy will account for about

2% of final energy consumption, with natural gas accounting for about 19%. The electrification

rate of the whole society (including the electricity for hydrogen production) will increase to 63% by

2050, and the proportion of hydrogen energy will increase to about 10%, with the proportion of

natural gas dropping to about 8%.

In the industrial sector,

with the continuous advancement of global economic development,

energy efficiency improvement and electric energy substitution, the energy consumption of the

industrial field (excluding non-energy utilization) first rises and then falls. It is estimated that by

2025, electric energy will become the largest energy variety for industrial energy, accounting for

about one-third of industrial energy, and natural gas accounts for more than one-fifth of industrial

energy. The industrial electrification rate will further increase to 57% by 2050, and the proportion

of natural gas will increase modestly. Hydrogen energy will be gradually promoted and used in

033

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industries, accounting for about 10%. The industrial electrification rate will be nearly 60% by 2060,

and the proportion of natural gas will drop to 4%, with the proportion of hydrogen energy further

increasing.

In the building sector,

with the development of global urbanization, energy consumption in

the building sector has been characterized by a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.

It is estimated that by 2025, the energy consumption of construction will still be electricity-

oriented, and the electrification rate will account for about 40%. With the further development

of urbanization, the demand for electric cooling and electric heating in the building sector will

continue to increase, and it is estimated that the electrification rate of construction field will

increase to 68% and 75% respectively by 2050 and 2060. With the electric energy substitution

continuous advanced, the use of natural gas in the construction field first rises and then falls.

In the transportation sector,

the energy consumption structure will gradually shift from fuel-

oriented to electric hydrogen-oriented in the future, and the energy consumption structure of

the transportation field will be more diversified by electric energy substitution, biomass energy

substitution, hydrogen energy substitution, and energy efficiency improvement. It is estimated that

by 2025, the electrification level of the transportation field will exceed 3%, and the proportions of

hydrogen and biofuels will reach 1% and 4%, respectively. Electrification level will be close to 40%

by 2050, with the proportions of hydrogen and biofuels increasing to 13% and 20%, respectively,

and electrification level will exceed 45% by 2060, with the proportions of hydrogen and biofuels

increasing to 18% and 27%, respectively.

3.4 Energy Allocation System with Multi-Network Integration and

Interconnection

The Global Energy Interconnection carbon neutrality pathway promotes the large-scale

development and consumption of clean energy, accelerates the development of intelligent

interaction of power grids, and realizes multi-energy complementarity and optimal allocation by

building a global energy allocation platform with ultra-high voltage power grid as the backbone

034

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Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

grid and the integrated and coordinated development of power grids at all levels. Due to

the continuous improvement of people’s awareness of clean, low-carbon and sustainable

development and the technological progress of the whole hydrogen energy industry chain, the

value of hydrogen energy in the energy transition is becoming more obvious, and a pattern of

combining on-site preparation and utilization and large-scale optimization will be formed in the

future.

3.4.1 Power Conﬁguration System

The Global Energy Interconnection carbon neutrality pathway relies on a strong wide-area

backbone grid to build an electric-centric, interconnected, and wide-area interconnected

energy allocation platform.

Infrastructure connectivity is an important foundation for promoting

resource sharing and complementing each other’s advantages and promoting clean energy

transition. Relying on advanced technologies such as ultra-high voltage and smart grids, the

Global Energy Interconnection has built a global power channel, transformed energy allocation

from local balance to trans-regional and trans-national global allocation, realized multi-energy

trans-regional delivery, cross-time zone complementarity, and cross-seasonal mutual aid, and

promoted the trans-nationalization of energy production, allocation, and trade. Based on the

resource endowment, energy and power demand and climate and environmental governance

needs, on the basis of the backbone grid and transnational networking of various countries, the

intercontinental networking has been further strengthened. The Global Energy Interconnection

backbone grid will be built in 2050, and a new pattern of global development, allocation and use

of clean energy will be formed. In addition, 660 GW of trans-regional and trans-continental power

flow will be carried, including 110 GW of trans-continental power flow.

The energy allocation has shifted to wide-area interconnection, and the overall power

allocation has changed from the current local balance to transnational, transcontinental

and global allocation.

Fully considering the resource endowment and demand distribution of

each continent, multi-energy complementarity and large-scale mutual aid, local development

and long-distance power supply, the overall situation is subject to domestic interconnection,

intracontinental interconnection and global interconnection in an orderly manner. It is estimated

that by 2035, according to the order of first easy and then difficult, the interconnection of power

grids within all continents and the trans-continental interconnection of Asia, Europe and Africa

will be basically realized. The rapid development of trans-national interconnected power grids

has realized the complementarity and mutual aid of power resources in different regions, different

seasons, different time periods and different types of power resources in various countries,

and improved the efficiency and economy of the energy system. It is estimated that by 2050,

the main interconnection channels of Asia, Europe, Africa and the Americas will be built, the

power grids of various continents and countries will be interconnected. In addition, the multi-

type power resources between continents will complement each other, and the benefits of trans-

continental power mutual aid by using time difference will be more significant. The Global Energy

Interconnection will be fully completed and become a global platform for the optimal allocation of

clean energy.

The power grid will be characterized by a pattern dominated by large power grids and

the coexistence of multiple power grid forms.

AC and DC hybrid power grids are still the

leading force in the optimal allocation of energy resources. In addition, microgrids, distributed

energy resources, and local DC power grids will develop rapidly, and will be interconnected and

coordinated with large power grids to support the efficient development and utilization of clean

035

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036

3

Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

energy and friendly access to various loads. The role of the power grid as a hub platform is further

highlighted, effectively supporting the development and utilization of various clean energy, and

realizing convenient access and “plugging for playing” of various energy facilities.

The distribution grid has been continuously upgraded and improved to boost the intelligent

level and efficiency of energy utilization.

With the implementation of smart grid, smart city

and integrated energy service strategy accelerated, application of distributed power generation,

electric vehicles, and user-side energy storage is conducted, and the distribution grid is evolving

from the traditional passive network to the two-way active network. In addition, the function and

form will undergo significant changes, and the requirements for safety, reliability and adaptability

are getting higher and higher. Distribution grids, local power grids, small and micro grids,

and virtual power plants will develop rapidly around the world in the future. With the gradual

improvement and upgrading of the distribution grid and the promotion of various flexible and

applicable distribution forms, the global access to electricity will be further improved, and the

problem of the population without electricity will be solved. The construction of smart distribution

grids, the development of smart buildings, smart homes, etc., will effectively promote the flexible

interaction and efficient use of energy on both sides of supply and demand, and improve the

comprehensive efficiency of the final energy system.

Column 3.2

Development and Prospect of China’s Energy Interconnection

Based on the development of energy resources and the pattern of power consumption,

China will accelerate the construction of a strong smart grid with the ultra-high voltage

power grid as the backbone grid and the coordinated development of power grids at

all levels, strive to improve the security level and operational efficiency of the power

grid, achieve a wider range of optimal allocation of resources, promote the large-scale

development and efficient utilization of clean energy, and support carbon emission

reduction in all aspects of energy production and use through interconnection, thus

providing safe, high-quality and sustainable power supply for economic and social

development and people’s better life. Regional development is promoted with sufficient

and reliable clean electricity to ensure the realization of carbon neutrality goals.

The inverse distribution of China’s power demand and resource endowment determines

the national electricity flow pattern of “West-to-East Power Transmission” and “North-

South Power Supply”. China’s trans-regional and trans-provincial electricity flow will reach

460 GW by 2030. Among them, there is 340 GW of trans-regional electricity flow, including

133 GW from the northwest, 113 GW from the southwest (including Yunnan), 64 GW from

Western Inner Mongolia and Shanxi in North China, and 15 GW from the northeast. The

trans-provincial electricity flow is 120 GW, including 70 GW from Western Inner Mongolia

and Shanxi in North China, and 6 GW from Sichuan in southwest China to Chongqing.

China’s trans-regional and trans-provincial electricity flow will reach about 810 GW by

2050, and the trans-regional electricity flow will reach 610 GW, of which 288 GW will be

sent from the northwest region, 157 GW from the southwest (including Yunnan), 92 GW

from north China, and 27 GW from the northeast. The trans-provincial electricity flow is 200

GW, mainly including 90 GW from Western Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Hebei Bashang in

the North China, which meets the electricity demand of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong

037

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

and other load centers in North China, and electricity flow from Sichuan in southwest China

to Chongqing is 30 GW. China’s trans-regional and trans-provincial electricity flow will be

further expanded in 2060, reaching 830 GW, and the trans-regional electricity flow will be

620 GW, of which the scale of electricity transmission in the northwest, southwest (including

Yunnan) and northeast will be the same as in 2050. 100 GW will be delivered from North

China, and large wind power bases such as Alxa, Ulanqab and Ordos in Inner Mongolia will

further increase the scale of delivery, with 210 GW of trans-provincial electricity flow.

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Figure 1 Framework of Trans-National, Trans-Regional and

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China’s domestic power grid interconnection will focus on the construction of synchronous

power grids in the east and west, and promote the large-scale development and efficient

consumption of clean energy through the construction of ultra-high voltage backbone

grids, forming an overall grid pattern of “west-to-east power transmission, north-south

power supply, multi-energy complementarity, and transnational interconnection”. In 2030,

the emphasis will be laid on accelerating the construction of ultra-high voltage backbone

channels, coordinating and promoting the construction of outgoing ultra-high voltage DC

channels and ultra-high voltage AC main grids for energy base transmission, improving

channel utilization efficiency and trans-regional and trans-provincial electricity exchange

capacity, improving the safe operation level of power grids and the ability to resist serious

faults, and initially forming a two-dimensional synchronous power grid pattern in the east

and west with “nine horizontal and five vertical” in the east and “three horizontal and two

vertical” in the west. A strong and reliable synchronous power grid in the east and west will

be built in an all-round way by 2050. The synchronous power grids in the east and west

will be further strengthened and updated by 2060, and the resource allocation capacity will

be greatly enhanced.

038

3

Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

3.4.2 Green Hydrogen Conﬁguration System

The development of green electricity and green hydrogen has the same source and

complementary applications, and for the configuration of green hydrogen, a pattern of

combining on-site preparation and utilization with large-scale optimization is formed.

Green

hydrogen comes from green electricity, which belongs to the “tertiary energy”, and hydrogen

can also be used to generate electricity through fuel cells or hydrogen-fired turbines. Compared

with other energy sources, hydrogen is easier to achieve two-way conversion with electricity, and

couples with each other to form an electricity-centered integrated energy system. Green hydrogen

is an important supplement to final energy consumption, and can achieve deep electric energy

substitution in fields that are difficult to directly replaced by electric energy such as aviation,

navigation, and metallurgy. The development and layout of global green electricity hydrogen

production bases will be accelerated in the future, and the allocation of green hydrogen will form

a pattern of “combining on-site preparation and utilization with large-scale optimization”.

Figure 3.16 Framework of Global Green Hydrogen Supply, Demand and

Transmission Scale in the Long Term

Combined with different transmission and application scenarios, the forms of hydrogen

energy storage and transportation are diversified.

There are different hydrogen storage

methods such as high-pressure gas hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, and hydrogen-carrying

compounds, and there are various hydrogen transmission methods suitable for various scenarios.

Long-tube trailers and tank cars are the main mode of road hydrogen transportation for short

and medium distances, with flexibility arrangement, and are suitable for small-scale hydrogen

distribution in the vicinity. Pure hydrogen pipelines have high investment, with large transportation

volume, low operating costs and low energy consumption, which is an important way to realize

large-scale long-distance transportation of hydrogen. The use of hydrogen blending and mixed

transmission in the existing natural gas pipeline grid can greatly reduce the investment in

039

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

hydrogen transmission equipment, which is the development trend of long-distance hydrogen

transmission in the short term. Hydrogen transmission by shipping will generally be used for ultra-

long-distance transmission in the future, and hydrogen production and hydrogen use sites should

be close to ports, with supporting infrastructure such as hydrogen conversion and gasification

required.

The transmission of hydrogen through power transmission lines is an important way to

realize large-scale and long-distance transmission of hydrogen, offering the advantages

of technological maturity and economic viability.

Apart from direct hydrogen transmission,

the power grid is used to transmit electricity and then the on-site production of hydrogen is

conducted in the hydrogen using center, which is also an important way to achieve hydrogen

energy transmission in the future. The technology of electricity transmission replacing hydrogen

transmission is mature. Compared with other direct hydrogen transmission technologies,

the electricity transmission technology has many years of mature construction and operation

experience. Depending on the transmission distance and capacity, technologies such as 330

kV, 500 kV AC, ± 500 kV, ± 800 kV, ± 1100 kV DC can be selected. The economy of electricity

transmission replacing hydrogen transmission is good. In the case of a transmission distance

of 2,000 kilometers, the ± 800 kV ultra-high voltage DC project is equivalent to the hydrogen

transmission capacity of 10 billion cubic meters pipeline, and the electricity transmission cost

is about 0.06 RMB/kWh, which is lower than the pipeline hydrogen transmission cost of 0.096

RMB/kWh. It is estimated that by 2060, the total amount of trans-regional hydrogen transmission

between regions will be 35 million tons (about 47% of green hydrogen demand), of which 1.1

PWh will be transmitted by electricity replacing hydrogen transmission, equivalent to 27 million

tons of hydrogen, accounting for more than 75% of the total transmission volume.

It is estimated that by 2050, there will be a rapid growth in demand for green hydrogen in

power generation and green hydrogen-based industries, leading to its widespread and

large-scale adoption.

Hydrogen energy has achieved a transcontinental and intra-continent

trans-regional large-scale optimal allocation, with a transmission scale of about 50 million tons,

accounting for 10% of the total global demand for hydrogen energy. North Africa and West Asia

are relatively close to European energy centers, and about 17.6 million tons of green hydrogen

can be delivered annually through hydrogen transmission pipelines and sea transmission. In

addition to delivering to Europe, about 5.4 million tons of surplus green hydrogen are delivered by

sea from West Asia to South and East Asia. Oceania is far away from energy-using centers such

as East Asia and South Asia, and port infrastructure is sound. About 13.3 million tons of liquid

hydrogen or hydrogen compounds are delivered by sea. South America abounds in clean energy

resources and has good conditions for the development of green hydrogen, with about 5.5 million

tons of green hydrogen being delivered to North America and 8.1 million tons to East Asia by sea.

3.5 Industries and Economic Systems Based on Zero-Carbon Energy

The Global Energy Interconnection leads the transformation of energy production and

consumption through the transformation of energy and power infrastructure, and promotes the

establishment of an industrial and economic system based on zero-carbon energy. On the one

hand, the establishment of the clean energy industrial system has been accelerated and has

become a new economic growth point, and the development of the clean energy industrial system

has led to the industrial upgrading of the whole society. On the other hand, the development of

circular economy has realized the recycling of resources, reduced the demand for raw materials,

and enhanced the sustainability of economic development.

040

3

Global Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality Pathway

3.5.1 Zero-Carbon Industrial System

Accelerating the establishment of a clean energy industrial system.

The establishment of a

clean energy industrial system with clean energy development and utilization, grid interconnection,

and clean and low-carbon utilization of fossil energy as the main body will be accelerated in the

future. Compared with the traditional energy industry chain, the clean energy industry chain has

the characteristics of long chain, large scale, wide layout and large number of employees. The

parts and components and equipment manufacturing industry in the upstream of the industry,

the clean energy production industry in the midstream, and the sales and application industries

in the downstream will accelerate their development, mainly including wind power, photovoltaic

and other clean energy equipment manufacturing, ultra-high voltage AC and DC transmission

equipment manufacturing, smart grid, distribution grid equipment manufacturing, green hydrogen

preparation equipment manufacturing and fossil energy combustion carbon dioxide capture,

transmission, utilization, etc., and the corresponding energy engineering consulting, design,

construction and other supporting industries will also develop rapidly, mobilizing the establishment

and improvement of the entire clean energy industry system.

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Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute, Foresight 2022: An in-depth understanding of the market

status, competition pattern and development trend of China’s clean energy industry in 2022, https://

bg.qianzhan.com/trends/detail/506/221101-2b7bfc93.html

A

041

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Promoting zero-carbon upgrading of the entire industrial system.

The clean energy industrial

system drives the zero-carbonization development of the entire social industrial system. On the

one hand, the energy consumption in all fields of the whole society is dominated by clean and

efficient zero-carbon electricity, and on the other hand, the development of the clean energy

industry system comprehensively drives scientific and technological innovation and drives

the zero-carbon upgrading of the industrial system in other fields. In the industrial field, the

substitution of electric energy driven by clean energy has promoted the further green upgrading

of traditional high-energy industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and

petrochemical industries, and accelerated the development of green industries such as hydrogen

steelmaking and electrolytic aluminum. In the manufacturing sector, universal production methods

such as sustainable materials and efficient manufacturing driven by the zero-carbon energy

industry will be widely used. In the field of transmission, clean energy power generation drives the

rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, presenting a trend of zero- carbonization,

sharing, and intelligence. In the building sector, the convergence of information flow, big data,

technology and services has given rise to a large number of new ways of value creation.

Accelerating the development of a resource-based circular economy.

A green, low-carbon

and circular development economic system is established, and the efficient utilization and recycling

of material resources are promoted such as mineral resources, carbon-based resources and water

resources, with the formation of a circular economy development model of “resources, products,

and renewables”. The needs for raw materials and carbon emissions in the production process

are reduced by recovering and recycling waste and by-products. For example, for electric arc

furnace short-process steelmaking, recycled scrap steel is adopted as the main raw material and

electricity as the energy source to replace coal with electricity, with a significant carbon reduction

effect. The electric fuel and raw materials industry will be combined with energy consumption,

chemical production, resource recovery, and carbon capture industries, taking carbon and hydrogen

as energy carriers to achieve recycling and net-zero emissions driven by renewable electricity.

3.5.2 Zero-Carbon Economic Development

Building a new paradigm for green development.

The traditional economic growth paradigm

takes material wealth as the sole criterion, fossil energy as the main driving force, and linear

expansion and reproduction as the production mode, which neither considers the resource

limitations of fossil energy, nor does it consider the various drawbacks brought by this model to

the earth’s climate and environmental system and human society. The zero-carbon energy system

will foster a new economic development paradigm, with the development goal from a single

economic growth to economic, social and environmental multi-goal coordination. Energy driving

force is from zero marginal cost, zero emission clean renewables, and the source of economic

development is mainly from innovation-driven technological progress. The energy consumption

system based on green electricity and green hydrogen energy will reconstruct the economic

system and industrial structure to achieve the harmonious coexistence of man and nature.

Enhancing the sustainability of global development.

From the perspective of the United Nations

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), carbon emissions, biodiversity, environment and other

dimensions, the high-carbon economic development model is not sustainable. The clean energy

transition promotes the decoupling of economic and social development from carbon emissions

and solves the problems of limited fossil energy resources, carbon emissions and environmental

pollution. In addition, it promotes the coordinated development of the three subsystems of

the global economy, society and ecological environment, and boosts the comprehensive

transformation of global economic and social development to a sustainable development model.

042

Coordinated Development between

Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to

Promote Inclusive Transition

4

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

The key to the energy inclusive transition is the coordinated development between

clean energy and fossil energy. For promoting an energy production pattern

where clean energy leads and multi-energy (i.e., wind, solar, hydro, thermal

power, and storage) complement with each other, the centralized and distributed

energy should be developed jointly. More, for accelerating the transition of fossil

energy, the fossil energy should be utilized via efficient and clean methods, flexible

transformation, low-carbon utilization with carbon capture. Further, for promoting

the formation of energy consumption system with electricity as the center and

electricity-hydrogen-cooling-heating-natural gas systems are connected and

complement with each other, the electrification and multi-energy conversion should

be developed.

4.1 Accelerating Clean Energy Development

The clean energy resources such as PV power, wind power, hydropower, and nuclear power

around the world are abundant and embrace huge development potential. Based on sufficient

clean energy, the promotion of large-scale development of clean energy and the energy

production pattern with clean energy as the mainly supplier are the key to build the Global Energy

Interconnection and speed up the carbon neutrality.

4.1.1 Development of Clean Energy Bases

A systematic, comprehensive, efﬁcient and accurate assessment of clean energy resources

can provide important guidance and reference for large-scale development and utilization

of clean energy.

The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization

(GEIDCO) has established the Global Renewable-energy Exploitation Analysis platform (GREAN)

which, through the construction of a global resource-geography-society basic database as well

as a multi-dimensional assessment system and a refined digital assessment model, realizes

the systematic calculation and characteristic analysis of key indicators such as the theoretical

reserves, technological exploitable potential, and development cost of clean energies including

wind power, PV power and hydropower in any selected countries and regions in the world^A,B

.

This effectively improves the accuracy and timeliness of resource assessment for wide range, and

gives systematic answer for a series of key questions such as “how much”, “where” and “how

economical” about the global clean energy, thereby providing scientific and quantitative data

Source: GEIDCO, Research on Global Clean Energy Development and Investment, Beijing: China Electric

Power Press, 2020.

A

B

Source: Wu J W, Xiao J Y, Hou J M, et al, A Multi-Criteria Methodology for Wind Energy Resource Assessment

and Development at an Intercontinental Level: Facing Low-Carbon Energy Transition, IET Renewable Power

Generation, 2023, 17, 480-494.

044

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

base and model support for clean power development, transmission and consumption^A,B,C. In

October 2022, the GREAN platform, as an excellent case of global meteorological energy services

that promotes renewable energy development, was included in the annual report of the World

’

Meteorological Organization, contributing China s experience and solutions to the clean energy

development around the world^D.

Assessment of wind

and PV resources

Original GIS information (surface features,

Raw resource data

(wind, PV)

traffic, waters, geological & seismological,

nature reserves, rock formations,

population, satellite images, etc.)

Data collection

Vector data

Raster data

Uniform data type

Conventional

meteorological

data, through

the numerical

simulation

Data collation

technology

to review and

revise the

wind and PV

resources data

Multi-

resolution

Data resolution fusion

After

fusion

Final data

Final GIS information (surface

features, traffic, waters, geological

& seismological, nature reserves,

rock formations, population,

satellite images, etc.)

Final resource data

(wind, PV)

Global

features

Global

traffic

Global

Geological &

Nature

reserves

Global rock Elevation Global satellite

formations images

Wind resource

data

Solar resource data

waters seismological

Establishment

and calculation

by resource

Technical

development

capacity

Economic

development

capacity

Theoretical

reserves

evaluation model

Output of wind

turbine generator unit

Scope of

resources

Area

occupied

Output of solar PV cell

Global power

grid

Global

Economic data: transportation

cost, equipment cost, land

acquisition cost, operation

and maintenance cost, grid-

connection cost, financing

cost, policy subsidies and

other factors affecting the cost

of electricity

power plant population

(a) Assessment of Wind and Solar Power Resources

Source: GEIDCO, Research on the Development of Clean Energy Bases in China, Beijing: China Electric Power

Press, 2023.

A

B

C

D

Source: Liu Zehong, Zhou Yuanbing, Jin Chen, Research on the Optimal Allocation Strategy of Power Supply

Portfolio Supporting New Energy Base Power Delivery, Global Energy Interconnection, 2023,6(02):101-112.

Source: Zhuo Z Y, Du E S, Zhang N, et al, Cost Increase in the Electricity Supply to Achieve Carbon Neutrality

in China, Nature Communications, 2022, 13, 3172.

Source: World Meteorological Organization, 2022 State of Climate Services: Energy, 2022.

045

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

(b) Assessment of Hydropower Resources

Figure 4.1 Clean Energy Resource Assessment Model

Column 4.1

Global Renewable-energy Exploitation

Analysis Platform (GREAN)

The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO

for short) has carried out systematic measurement and quantitative analysis to the

theoretical reserves, technological exploitable potential and economical exploitable

potential of clean energy from a global perspective, and built the Global Renewable-energy

Exploitation Analysis platform (GREAN).

The characteristics of the GREAN platform are as follows: (1) Build an accurate,

comprehensive and complete information database and quantitative model. Based on the

data about hydropower, wind power and solar power around the world, the platform builds

a basic resource assessment database for 20 clean energy resources in 32 categories

046

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

covering geographic information and human activity data. The data in the database features

hour-level time resolution and 100-meter spatial resolution, providing information on AC

and DC transmission grids of 110 kV and above in 147 regions and countries around

the world. The quantitative model is accurate, set with unified calculation parameters,

integrated with GIS, engineering measurement and other crossing fields, and applied with

innovative algorithms including parallel computing framework, ant colony, neuron network

and other, and thus it is capable of state-level resource assessment and calculation on line.

(2) Propose a scientific and systematic site selection plan for the power plant base. This

platform supports quantitative assessment of hydropower, wind power and soalr power

around the world from three aspects including resource reserves, technological exploitable

potential and exploitation economy. This can generate a set of scientific, systematic and

comprehensive assessment results of clean energy resources around the world; builds the

model and tools for site selection planning of large-scale clean energy power bases, and

proposes the site selection planning methods and digital solutions for hydropower, wind

power and PV power stations.

Based on the GREAN platform, GEIDCO has completed the assessment of the theoretical

reserves, technological exploitable potential and economical exploitable potential of

hydropower, wind power and solar power around the world, as well as the site selection,

development scale evaluation and resource characteristic analysis of 35 hydropower

bases, 94 large-scale wind power bases and 90 large-scale PV power bases in the world,

providing guidance and reference for the large-scale development and utilization of clean

energy around the world.

Figure 1 Global Renewable-energy Exploitation Analysis Platform (GREAN)

047

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

PV Power

1

The theoretical reserves of PV power in the world is above 2 TWh, able to provide

inexhaustible energy for human beings.

Based on the global basic information database, the

GREAN platform achived assessing the theoretical reserves^Aof PV power theoretical reserves

of the whole world and all continents. Wherein, the theoretical reserves of PV power in Africa

’

and Asia are 640 GWh and 590 GWh respectively, accounting for 31% and 28% of the world s

total, and ranking the top among all continents, with the PV power richly distributed in northern,

southern and eastern Africa, and in Western Asia.

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The resource endowment and development conditions of PV power determine a

development mode dominated by base development and supplemented by distributed

development.

With resources and various factors affecting technology development fully

considered, the installed capacity of PV power suitable for centralized development in

the world is about 2.6 PW, and the annual power generation capacity is 5,000 PWh. The

utilization hours is an important indicator to measure the advantages and disadvantages of

PV technical exploitable conditions in a region, and its global distribution is shown below.

The technical exploitable areas of PV power in the world are mainly distributed in western

and central Asia, northern and southern Africa, southwestern North America, western South

America, and central and northern Australia.

Source: GEIDCO, Research on Global Clean Energy Development and Investment, Beijing: China Electric

Power Press, 2020.

A

048

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

049

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Table 4.1 PV Power Assessment Results on Six Continents

Annual power

generation

capacity

Theoretical

reserves

(PWh)

Centralized

development

scale (TW)

Proportion

of available

area (%)

Average

LCOE (cents/

kWh)^A

Utilization

hours

Continent

(PWh)

Asia

Europe

Africa

59,100

9,550

606

10

1100

14

1816

1358

1942

35.26

8.58

1.78

2.28

2.07

63,465

1375

2670

54.16

North

America

24,552

34,295

114

277

204

505

1780

1819

12.65

22.58

1.84

1.68

Central

and South

America

Oceania

Total^B

17,364

264

508

1929

41.04

2.46

208,325

2647

5001

1890^C

33.74^D

2.00^E

PV power development goals. In the carbon emission peak stage,

the total installed capacity

of PV power continues to rise with the large-scale development and utilization of PV power, and is

In the carbon neutrality stage,

expected to rise above 1.8 TW in 2025.

PV power becomes the

’

world s largest power source, and it is expected by 2050 the total installed capacity of PV power

will leap to 17.1 TW, and reach 20.4 TW in 2060.

Layout of 90 world’s major large-scale centralized PV power bases.

Taking into account the

characteristics and development conditions of resources, the overall layout of 90 centralized PV

power bases around the world is proposed, which are mainly in Asia, Africa and South America.

’

The total installed capacity of the world s large-scale PV power base is about 1 TW, the annual

power generation capacity is 1.9 PWh, the total investment is about 400 billion US dollars, and

the average LCOE is about 1.69 cents/kWh.

The value given herein is the average LCOE and the annual power generation capacity in 2035, so is the

average LCOE of wind power mentioned in this chapter.

A

B

The data of Asia includes the assessment results of Asian part of Russia and Egypt but does not include the

assessment results of the European part of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan; the data of Europe includes

the assessment results of the European part of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, but does not include the

assessment results of the Asian part of Russia and the assessment results of Greenland; the data of Africa

does not include the assessment results of the Asian part of Egypt; and the data of North America includes the

assessment results of Greenland.

The global installed available hours of PV power is the ratio of the global annual total power generation capacity

to the total centralized development scale.

C

D

E

The global available area of PV power is the ratio of the total available area of each continent to the global total

area.

The global average LCOE of PV power is the weighted average of the average LCOE and annual power

generation capacity of each continent.

050

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Table 4.2 Technical and Economic Indicators of Large-scale PV Power Bases on Six Continents

Installed

capacity

(GW)

Annual power

generation capacity

(TWh)

Number of

bases

Total investment

Average LCOE

(cents/kWh)

Continent

(Billion US dollars)

Asia

38

21

688

94

1318

181

266

35

1.70

1.68

Africa

North

America

10

15

105

88

198

180

43

44

1.84

1.52

Central

and South

America

Oceania

Others

Total

5

1

20

0.7

995

39

1.3

8.6

0.004

397

1.64

1.76

1.69

90

1917

Wind Power

2

The theoretical reserve of global wind energy resource is 2000 PWh, showing a huge

B

development potential^A

. The GREAN platform is used to calculate the theoretical reserves

of wind energy in the world and on all continents based on the wind speed data at a height of

100 m. Among them, the theoretical reserves of wind power in Asia, North America and Africa

are 595 PWh, 488 PWh and 366 PWh respectively, accounting for 30%, 24% and 18% of the

’

world s total, and ranking the top among all continents, with the wind power richly distributed

in Northeast Asia, Central Asia and West Asia, eastern and central North America, and parts of

eastern, northern and southern Africa.

0DFBOJB

ꢄꢂ

$FOUSBMꢅBOEꢅ

4PVUIꢅ"NFSJDB

"TJB

ꢀꢁꢂ

ꢈꢂ

/PSUIꢅ

"NFSJDB

ꢆꢇꢂ

&VSPQF

ꢃꢃꢂ

"GSJDB

ꢃꢄꢂ

Figure 4.4 Theoretical Reserves of Wind Power on Six Continents

Source: GEIDCO, Research on Global Clean Energy Development and Investment, Beijing: China Electric

Power Press, 2020.

A

B

The total wind power reserves in the world does not include Antarctica.

051

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

The resource endowment and development conditions of wind power determines that

centralized development is more suitable.

With resources and various technical restrictions

fully considered, the installed capacity of wind power suitable for centralized development in the

world is about 130 TW, and the annual power generation capacity is about 350 PWh. The wind

power resources suitable for centralized development in the world are mainly distributed in Central

Asia, the North Sea region in Europe, the Sahara of Africa to the northern area of Mediterranean

coast, the central, eastern and northern North America, the southern coast of South America and

the northeastern Atlantic coast.

Table 4.3 Wind Power Assessment Results on Six Continents

Theoretical

reserves

(PWh)

Centralized

development

scale (TW)

Annual energy

generation

(PWh)

Proportion

of available

area (%)

Average

LCOE

Utilization

hours

Continent

(cents/kWh)

Asia

Europe

595

213

366

488

37

4

94

11

2517

2707

2699

2609

21.39

9.11

2.68

2.72

3.09

3.41

Africa

52

15

141

40

37.62

10.30

North America

Central and

South America

184

7

20

2916

9.94

2.39

Oceania

Total^A

155

16

41

2650

38.87

3.95

2001

131

347

2642^B

23.17^C

3.00^D

Wind power development goals In the carbon emission peak stage

, the total installed capacity

.

of wind power continues to rise with the large-scale development and utilization of wind power, and

In the carbon neutrality stage,

is expected to rise above 1.5 TW in 2025.

wind power becomes the

’

world s second largest power source after PV power, and it is expected that by 2050 the total installed

capacity of wind power will leap to 9.9 TW, and reach 11.7 TW in 2060.

Layout of 94 world’s major large-scale centralized wind power bases.

With the

characteristics and development conditions of resources fully considered, the overall layout of 94

The data of Asia includes the assessment results of Asian part of Russia and Egypt but does not include the

assessment results of the European part of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan; the data of Europe includes

the assessment results of the European part of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, but does not include the

assessment results of the Asian part of Russia and the assessment results of Greenland; the data of Africa

does not include the assessment results of the Asian part of Egypt; and the data of North America includes the

assessment results of Greenland.

A

The global installed available hours of wind power is the ratio of the global annual total power generation

capacity to the total centralized development scale.

B

C

D

The global available area of wind power is the ratio of the total available area of each continent to the global

total area.

The global average LCOE of wind power is the weighted average of the average LCOE and annual power

generation capacity of each continent.

052

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

053

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

centralized wind power bases around the world is proposed, which are mainly in Asia, Europe

and North America. The total installed capacity of large-scale wind power bases in the world is

about 720 GW, the annual power generation capacity is 2.5 PWh, the total investment is nearly

600 billion US dollars, and the average LCOE of onshore and offshore wind power bases are 2.37

cents/kWh and 4.60 cents/kWh respectively.

Table 4.4 Technical and Economic Indicators of Large-scale Wind Power Bases on Six Continents

Total

Generating

capacity

(TWh)

Average

LCOE

Base

Installed capacity

(GW)

investment

(Billion US

dollar)

Continent

Quantity

(cents/kWh)

Onshore, 2.38

Offshore, 4.57

Asia

39

288

874

202

Onshore, 2.13

Offshore, 4.56

Europe

Africa

17

12

158

21

680

68

189

18

Onshore, 2.23

Onshore, 2.95

Offshore, 4.69

North America

138

469

120

Central and

South America

9

5

100

14

364

49

56

10

Onshore, 1.99

Onshore, 2.55

Offshore, 4.49

Oceania

Total

Onshore, 2.37

Offshore, 4.60

94

720

2505

595

Hydropower

3

The large-scale hydropower development in the world is expected to be mainly distributed

in Africa, Asia and Central and South America in the future.

The total hydropower reserves

of all rivers in the world except Antarctica are 46 PWh, of which the hydropower reserve of 205

river basins with high hydropower development potential is 39.6 PWh, accounting for about

85% of the total. Based on this, the digital quantitative assessment model is used to estimate

the hydropower resources of 64 major river basins with a total area of 52.9 million km², which

’

accounts for 68% of the world s major rivers, and covers the major hydropower resources to be

developed in all continents. Then, it is estimated that the theoretical reserves of hydropower in

64 major river basins in the world is 28 PWh in total, mainly distributed in Asia, Central and South

America and Africa where the theoretical reserves account for 47%, 23% and 13% of the global

total respectively, and thus the hydropower shows a great development potential.

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

055

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Table 4.5 Theoretical Reserves of Hydropower in Major River Basis on Six Continents

Continent

Asia

Number of river basins Area of river basin (Million km²) Theoretical reserves (TWh)

14

13

9

14

4

13127

1944

3790

2137

Europe

Africa

12

9

North America

11

Central and South

America

9

12

6552

Oceania

Total

8

2

526

64

53

28076

Hydropower development goals. In the carbon emission peak stage,

the total installed

capacity of hydropower increases steadily with the further development and utilization of

hydropower resources, and it is estimated that by 2025 the installed capacity of regular

hydropower will rise above 1.3 TW and that of pumped storage hydropower will rise above 250

In the carbon neutrality stage,

GW.

hydropower has become the third largest power source in

the world following PV power and wind power, and it is expected that the total installed capacity

of regular hydropower will rise to about 2.5 TW by 2050 and above 2.53 TW by 2060, and that of

pumped storage hydropower will rise to 600 GW by 2050 and to about 670 GW by 2060.

Layout of 35 world’s major large-scale hydropower bases.

With the resource characteristics and

development conditions fully considered, the overall layout of 35 large-scale hydropower bases around

the world is proposed with a total of 229 cascades to be developed, a total installed capacity of about

320 GW and an annual power generation capacity of 1.7 PWh, mainly including 10 hydropower bases

in 10 river basins including the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Mahakan rivers in Asia with 88 cascades

to be developed, a total installed capacity of 92 GW and an annual power generation capacity of

432 TWh, and 8 hydropower bases in the 4 river basins including the Congo River, the Nile River,

the Zambezi River and the Niger River in Africa with 48 cascades to be developed, a total installed

capacity of 140 GW and an annual power generation capacity of 827 TWh.

Table 4.6 Hydropower Indicators of Main River Basins to be Developed around the World

Cascade scheme to be developed

Theoretical

Installed

capacity

Annual Electricity

Generating capacity

(TWh)

Continent

reserves

(TWh)

Quantity of Number of power

base

stations

Load (GW)

Asia

1560

1770

10

8

88

48

92

432

827

Africa

139

Central and

South America

2048

14

74

65

330

Oceania

Total

143

3

19

24

110

5521

35

229

320

1698

056

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Column 4.2

Development Cases of Global Wind/PV Power Bases

1. Development of Wind Power and PV Power in Desert, Gobi and Desertiﬁcation Areas

of China - Ningxia Tengger Desert Wind/PV Power Base

In April 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National

Energy Administration (NEA) issued the Planning and Layout Plan for Large-scale Wind/

PV Power Bases Focusing on Desert, Gobi, and Desertification Areas to build large-scale

wind/PV power bases mainly in deserts in Kubuqi, Ulanbuh, Tengger and Badain Jaran,

which brings about the upsurge of development of new energy bases in desert, gobi and

desertification areas, and marks that the wind/PV power development in the desert, gobi

and desertification areas will pay an important role in the energy transition of China, and will

also shoulder the important mission of ecological restoration and governance.

Ningxia Tengger Desert Wind/PV Power Base, with a total planned installed capacity

of 13 GW and a total planned investment of more than 85 billion yuan, is China’s first

UHV transmission channel focusing on the development of desert PV power bases and

the transmission of new energy, and is an important part of the “Ningxia Electricity into

Hunan” project. The project is the first 10 GWh power base project in the desert, gobi and

desertification areas that has been put on record, started and put into production, and was

constructed by the National Energy Group.

The Phase 1 of the Tengger Desert Power Project (1 GW PV power), with a total area of

28000 acres and a total investment of about 5.3 billion yuan, was started for construction in

September 2022, and was officially connected to the grid in April 2023; the Phase 2 (2 GW

PV power) was started for construction in October 2023. This project is China’s largest wind/

PV power base project in the desert, gobi and desertification areas till now. The Phase 2 is

Figure 1 Tengger Desert Wind/PV Power Base Project in Ningxia, China

057

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

located on the southeast edge of the Tengger Desert, and built with 2 booster stations and 1

energy storage power station, and after constructed and connected to the grid, it is expected

to provide 3.96 TWh of clean power each year, which meets the electricity consumption of

3.3 million families for a year, and contributes to an annual energy saving of 1.207 Mtce and

a CO₂emission reduction of about 3.2938 million tons. At the same time, the Tengger Desert

Wind/PV Power Base is also an attempt to explore a new path of “new energy construction,

protection and restoration of the ecosystem in desert, gobi and desertification areas”, and with

the “green energy and ecological governance” as the core goal, it is committed to develop

into a demonstration base project integrating ecological protection, technological innovation,

science polarization, tourism and culturing.

2. Development of New Energy Bases in Egypt, Africa

Benban Solar Park in Aswan, Egypt. Aswan in southern Egypt is one of the area with

richest solar power resources in the world, with the total annual solar radiation up to 2400

kWh/m². It is in this area that the Aswan Benban Solar Park is located, which is a power

complex composed of 41 solar power plants covering an area of up to 37 km², and is

expected to become the world’s largest solar park after its construction is completed. The

Benban Solar Project features an installed capacity up to 1.8 GW, and contains multiple

small PV power plants developed by different companies with a total investment of up to

4 billion US dollars, and it will contribute to a CO₂emission reduction of 2 million tons per

year when being put into full operation.

Suez Bay Onshore Wind Farm Project in the Red Sea, Egypt. The Suez region along the

coast of Red Sea in Egypt is rich in onshore wind power resources, and a 500 MW Suez

Bay Wind Farm Project is planned in Ras Ghareb city in the Suez region, with a total area

of 69.4 km², and an expected construction cost of about USD 550 Million. The project was

started for construction in the first half of 2023 and is expected to be put into COD in the

second quarter of 2025, for which PowerChina and Envision Energy provide construction

services and wind turbine generators respectively. When completed, the project will be the

largest wind power project throughout the African continent.

Figure 2 Benban Solar Power Park Project in Egypt

058

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Nuclear Power

4

Nuclear power is an efﬁcient and stable clean energy.

Compared with fossil energy, nuclear

power generation emits no atmospheric pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides,

and greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Compared with wind power and PV power

generation, nuclear power generation features high unit capacity, stable operation and higher

available hours, allowing for high-power stable generation, and making it more suitable as the

base-power supply. Nuclear power has a certain peak shaving capacity, and in recent years,

nuclear power generators have moderately participated in daily peak shaving in the United States,

Germany, France and other countries. As a stable clean energy, nuclear power is an integral part

of low-carbon energy system, but its large-scale development is restricted by many factors in

economy, society and environment. In the future, with increasing renewable energy connected

to the power system, nuclear power generator is expected to play a supporting role in promoting

clean energy consumption and maintaining the safe and stable operation of the power system.

Develop nuclear power properly while ensuring safety

. Considering the importance and

sensitivity of nuclear power, as well as the features of nuclear power including high investment,

long construction period and high safety requirements, governments of all countries play a very

important role in promoting and supporting the development of nuclear power. Countries are in

different development stages of nuclear power, and are different in the urgency of energy demand

and concerns, as well as the attitude towards nuclear power. For example, the North America and

Western European countries are developed in economy and pay more attention to safety, and

even some countries have adopted nuclear abandonment programs; but in East Asia, South Asia,

Eastern Europe and other regions where economy is growing fast, nuclear power has become

an important choice to meet the growing energy demand while controlling carbon emissions. For

the development of nuclear power, it is required to, while improving its utilization efficiency as an

important base-power supply, guarantee its safety, pay attention to the ability of nuclear power in

peak shaving, and ensure a better cooperation with volatile new energy sources to jointly provide

reliable power supply for the system.

4.1.2 Distributed Development of Clean Energy

Nowadays, the process of urbanization in the world, especially in Asia and Africa, is accelerating,

the level of industrialization is constantly improving, the electricity consumption is growing rapidly,

and the land resources in densely populated areas such as cities and towns are becoming

increasingly short. Therefore, for the development and utilization of clean energy resources

represented by PV power and wind power, centralized large-scale bases shall be avoided in

densely populated areas with high value-added land, and considering that the decentralized

wind power and distributed PV power feature small footprint and flexible installation, wind power

generation in farmland, industrial parks, and open areas scattered among mountains, and roof PV

power generation are suitable to fully improve the efficiency of land resource utilization.

Specifically, the distributed development of wind power and PV power is mainly suitable for areas

with low resource endowment, and the decentralized wind power development and distributed

wind power development are to be carried out in combination with local land development and

utilization conditions and the distribution of main ground cover for land resources that are not

suitable for centralized development such as cultivated land, farmland, forest land, urban open

parks, ponds and lakes by rationally using areas such as ridges, roofs of buildings, open spaces

059

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

in industrial parks and fish ponds through various means including agriculture-PV complementary

development and fishery-PV complementary development. Based on the estimation of GREAN

platform, the types of ground covers that are suitable for distributed but not centralized wind/

PV power development on all continents in the world and their area proportion are shown in the

figure below.

Figure 4.7 Proportion of Forests, Cultivated Land, Cities, Ice, Snow and Water on Six Continents

Through comparison, nearly 80% of the surface area in Europe is covered by forests, cities,

cultivated land, ice and snow, which, together with the high land cost and other factors, make

the development of large-scale wind/PV power bases very difficult, and therefore, centralized

development is not suitable, and PV power and wind power are more suitably developed in a

distributed way by using buildings and available open spaces. In Asia, Central and South America

and North America, about 50% of the surface area are not suitable for centralized development

and construction of wind/PV power bases, especially in East and Central China, India, Thailand,

Indonesia, the central and northern parts of the United States, and other countries and regions

with dense population, concentrated urban distribution and good cultivated land and forest

resources, and in these areas, distributed development model is more suitable. Africa and

Oceania are subject to few limitations in terms of land nature, and embrace better conditions for

centralized development, but for Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and other island countries, the

distributed development model has a greater positive effect when power interconnection and

consumption is comprehensively considered.

The aims in the future are as follows: by taking into account factors such as resource

endowments, construction conditions, and consumption capabilities in various regions of the

world, adopt both centralized development model and distributed development model, optimize

the regional layout of clean energy represented by wind power, and accelerate distributed PV

power development and decentralized wind power development in urban and rural areas to

gradually realize large-scale layout, accelerate clean energy transition, and achieve carbon peak

and carbon neutrality goals around the world as soon as possible.

060

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Column 4.3

Application of Distributed Renewable Energy

Consumption Technology in Jinzhai, Anhui

The project is located in Jinzhai, Anhui Province, China, and is a distributed renewable energy

power generation and grid connection demonstration project with largest regional scale and

highest penetration rate. The Project focuses on the three key scientific and technical issues

including orderly access, flexible grid connection and optimal dispatching of large-scale

distributed power generation clusters, and the research on the optimal planning and design

method of high-permeability distributed power generation clusters, efficient and flexible grid

connection technology and hierarchical cluster control and dispatching technology, innovating

cluster planning methods, breaking through key technologies of grid connection and operation,

and developing key equipment and systems.

This Demonstration Project was put into operation in 2018 with an area of more than 800

km², and the installed capacity of distributed renewable energy is 413 MW, of which the

total installed capacity of PV power is 217 MW. 225 sets of various high-performance grid-

connected equipment and intelligent measurement and control terminals were deployed,

and PV grid-connected equipment based on SiC power devices were successfully applied.

It realizes 100% distributed energy consumption in the demonstration area, an increase of

the power generation capacity in the demonstration area by more than 30%, a reduction of

the harmonic current distortion rate by 5%, and a reduction of power loss by 8%, with the

achievements widely applied to power grids and industrial enterprises in 17 provinces and

cities such as Anhui and Zhejiang, and exported to Japan, Maldives, Thailand, etc.

After the Project was put into operation, the problems of low power generation and high

power grid loss of distributed power supply in the demonstration area were effectively

solved. The average annual power generation capacity increase in the demonstration

area is 32 GWh, bringing a revenue of about 31 million yuan higher. Through cluster

scientific planning and collaborative source-grid-load optimization, the line loss of low-

voltage substation area was reduced by 3%, which effectively improved the power quality

Inter-cluster regulation system

Distribution regulation center

Substation tele-regulation interface

Distributed power generation cluster regulation system

Cluster control

sub-station

Dynamic regulation

Steady regulation

Interface of

measurement

and control

equipment

Interface of measurement and

control equipment

Interface of measurement and

control equipment

Capacitive reactance

measurement and control device

Measurement and control

equipment for energy storage

Measurement and control

equipment for inverter

Figure 1 Overall Design Architecture of Renewable Energy

Power Generation and Grid Connection System

061

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

index of power grid and reduced the damage and maintenance cost of farmers’ electrical

equipment caused by excessive line voltage. The breakthrough in key technologies for

grid connection of large-scale distributed power generation clusters greatly improves the

regional distributed power consumption capacity of power grid, alleviates the pressure of

grid peak shaving, reduces the investment in distribution network, improves the energy

conversion efficiency, reduces the grid loss, and promotes the technology upgrade of

distributed power generation and grid connection devices.

4.2 Fossil Fuel Energy Transition

The increasing of installed capacity of intermittent power supplies such as wind power makes

the balancing between supply and demand in the power system and the supply support more

difficult. In the construction of new energy system in the future, by strengthening the efficient and

clean production and utilization of fossil energy, accelerating the flexible transformation and low-

carbon transition of coal power, and configuring CCS devices, continuously reducing the carbon

emission intensity of coal power, and giving full play to the role of coal power in flexible regulation

in the near future and the role of supply guarantee and emergency backup in the long term, so as

to realize the coordinated development of clean energy and fossil energy.

4.2.1 Flexible Transformation

The core of flexible transformation of coal power is to increase the depth of peak shaving. After

flexible transformation, the automatic generation control (AGC) and primary frequency regulation

capability of coal-fired power generation units can be further optimized and improved. Generally,

the technical output of peak shaving depth in pure condensation period and heating season can

be increased from 50% of rated load to 20% of rated load, thus comprehensively improving the

deep peak shaving service capability of coal-fired power generation in the regional power auxiliary

service market. In addition, taking into account the thermal power contradiction between heating

and peak shaving in winter, the safe and stable operation of systems with a high proportion of

clean energy is supported through heat-power decoupling and improvement of “peak shaving +

heating” capacity. The flexible transformation of large coal-fired power generation units should be

based on the energy supply of entire system and implemented by evaluation of operation status

of the main auxiliary devices, optimization of system operation performance, intelligent operation

of the system and the optimization of control ability, so as to improve the stability, environment

friendliness and economy of the coal-fired boiler under such conditions as low-load operation,

rapid start/stop and load rise/drop.

In terms of combustion stability,

the pulverized coal burner is the key device to the combustion

stability of the boiler, and the main technical measures to improve the low-load combustion stability

of the pulverized coal burner include: strengthening the efficient concentration of pulverized coal and

high-temperature flue gas reflux, optimizing the structure and operating parameters of the swirl burner,

and setting combustion characteristics under each load section. In addition, the adaptive adjustment

of pulverized coal fineness and uniformity by appropriately improving the concentration of pulverized

coal and adjusting the speed of dynamic separator can also effectively promote the timely ignition and

stable combustion of different types of coal under low load, and the gradual application of small fuel

nozzle-based micro-oil combustion-supporting technology.

062

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

In terms of auxiliary device adaptability,

the auxiliary devices tend to deviate from the design

parameters when the coal-fired power generation units run under low load condition for a long

time, which will directly affect the operating state and efficiency of the auxiliary device system.

Therefore, based on the operating characteristics of the main auxiliary devices under each load

section, it is required to improve the adaptability and reliability between the main auxiliary devices

(including coal mill, fan, denitration device, desulfurization device, dust removal device, steam-

water system, etc.) and the boiler, and strengthen the monitoring, analysis and management of

the operating state of the devices.

In terms of heat-power decoupling,

the constraint on heating & power generation unit in

heating season that the power output is determined based on heating demand (that is, when

the output of the heating & power generation unit increases, the excessive heat is stored, and

when the output of the heating & power generation unit decreases, the heat is output to make

up the heat shortage) should be decoupled to effectively alleviate the contradiction between the

deep peak shaving of the heating & power generation unit and the heating demand in heating

season. The core of the heat-power decoupling technology is to directly convert electrical energy

into thermal energy or chemical energy through electric heating and electricity replacement and

store the energy for output when needed. At present, the representative heat-power decoupling

technologies include heat supply by heat storage tank and heat pump, compensated heat supply

by turbine bypass line of heat storage boiler turbine, and cut-off of heat supply of low-pressure

cylinder and so on.

In terms of economy and environmental protection,

the operation efficiency of boiler and

various auxiliary devices is far lower than the design as the operating conditions of the boiler

under deep peak shaving condition deviate a lot from the design, resulting in a significant

increase in coal consumption of the power generation unit for power supply. In view of

this, the most effective means is to improve the burn-off rate of pulverized coal, and main

measures for this purpose include: appropriately reducing the primary air supply, reducing

the fineness of pulverized coal, deepening the staged combustion of air in the furnace, and

increasing the temperature of air and pulverized coal at the inlet of the burner. Another

effective way to improve economy is to reduce the power consumption rate of the main

auxiliary devices in the plant, and the relevant measures for this purpose include reduction

of the number of coal mills in operation by reasonable rotation, fan-side operation and

regular soot blowing of heating surface to improve the heat absorption capacity of heating

surface, and reduce flue resistance and fan power consumption. The peak shaving cost will

increase for handling additional pollutants caused by low-load operation. When the power

generation units work in low (variable) load, the increase of air-coal ratio will increase the

oxygen consumption and NOx emission of the boiler, and will also cause the increase of NOx

and SOx emission in case of combustion stabilizing by oil dosing. In view of such pollutants,

on the one hand, the generation of NOx in the furnace can be suppressed by adopting low-

nitrogen burners with strong combustion stability, optimizing the graded air distribution in the

furnace, and flue gas recirculation, and on the other hand, ultra-low load denitration of the

power generation unit can be realized by increasing the flue gas temperature at the inlet of

SCR reactor, or by adopting the combination of boiler start-up technology and economizer

grading technology .

063

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Column 4.4

Heat-Power Decoupling Practice of Traditional Coal Power

1. Practice in China

In 2017, Dalian ETDC power station started its flexible transformation for 350 MW

supercritical coal-fired power generation units with the proposed transformation scheme

that the high/low-pressure bypasses of the power generation units are applied to deliver

the steam from the boiler superheater outlet to the heater of the heat supply network to

heat the circulating water in the heat supply network, which ensures the boiler evaporation

while reducing the steam into the turbine, and thereby realizes power-heat decoupling.

After transformation, the power station has successfully realized international-leading

heat-power decoupling capacity featuring stable operation under 19.4% of rated load,

continuous external heat supply capacity of 228 tonnes of steam per hour, low-load

heating capacity of 3.5 million m²; and an increase of peak shaving capacity to 80%, which

is greatly higher than power generation units of same class in the regions.

Figure 1 No. 2 Power Generation Unit of Dalian ETDC Power Station

2. Practice in Europe

The Europe often incur to negative electricity prices due to the rapid development of wind

power and PV power and deep marketization of electricity price, especially in Northern

Europe and Germany. Therefore to increase the economy, many thermal power plants

selected a solution to produce hot water for heating through electric boilers when the

064

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

electricity price is negative. The thermal power plants in Northern Europe are largely applied

with high-power electric boilers, which can effectively increase the thermal power flexibility

of thermal power plants, and helps realize fast deep peak shaving, peak-valley balance

and wind/PV power consumption without interfering the boiler turbine system of the power

generation unit. The electrode steam boiler can also be used as a start-up aid for cold

start-up of nuclear power plants and regular thermal power generation units together with

superheaters to provide hot steam required for the start-up and warm-up of small turbines.

Heat storage tank technology has also been successfully applied in some enterprises in

northern Europe, such as the Fyn Power Station in Denmark, where the hot water tanks

can accommodate 13.5 trillion joules of heat energy, accounting for more than 70% of the

full-load heating power of the power station.

4.2.2 Efﬁcient and Clean Utilization

Coal

1

Clean and efﬁcient coal mining. Improve the cleanliness of coal raw material.

Strengthen the

pretreatment of low-quality coal, increase the proportion of coal selection by washing, promote

advanced coal washing technologies such as dry washing and improve the refinement and intelligence

Improve

of washing and processing process to reduce the supply of low-quality coal from the source.

the utilization rate of coal by-products.

Build a coal-based circular economy industrial chain to

promote the recycling and industrial utilization of coal gangue, coal slime, mine (pit) water and other

Promote

by-products pf coal and accelerate the development and utilization of coalbed methane.

low-carbon coal production

. Develop PV power plants by using squares and roofs of the coal

industry, and make use of the rich geothermal resources in the mine to promote the power generation,

heating and civil use of geothermal power to increase the supply of low-carbon energy, achieving a

low-carbon production mode of “coal production without coal”.

Promote the transformation and upgrading of coal consumption. Accelerate the

management of scattered coal.

Give priority to industrial waste heat, CHP, geothermal power

and other ways to replace scattered coal combustion for heating, speed up the popularization

rate of energy-saving stoves, rule out inefficient products, and encourage the use of biomass, “solar

energy +”, water source heat pumps and other means for heating to phase out small coal-fired

Promote the conversion of

boilers and kilns within the coverage of the heating pipe network.

coal utilization from fuel to “fuel + raw material”.

Steadily promote the modern coal chemical

industry with the environment carrying capacity fully considered. Promote the extension of the

coal industry chain to the downstream industries as well as the extension of products to high-end

professional chemicals, special oil products, and new chemical materials to increase added value.

Oil & Gas

2

Promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in oil & gas production.

Accelerate the

electrification of fuel/gas/coal-fired devices for oil & gas production, and increase the proportion

of electricity in the energy supply of offshore oil & gas platforms. Accelerate the integration of oil &

gas exploration and development with new energy development, develop wind power, PV power

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and geothermal power relying on gas fields, refineries and other resources, actively promote

the construction of “green oil fields”, “green factories” and “green refineries”, promote clean

replacement of energy in the oil & gas production process, and increase the grid connection and

use of green power.

Promote the efficient utilization of oil and gas.

In the production allocation link, accelerate

the transformation of traditional production modes in refining and chemical industry, gradually

promote the “oil reduction and chemical increase” transformation of refining and chemical

industry to increase the supply of chemical products, chemicals, hydrogen fuel cell materials and

other products, and extend the petrochemical industry chain. In the oil refining link, strengthen

the promotion and application of energy-saving technologies in oil refining to further reduce the

energy consumption; promote the comprehensive utilization technologies of complementary

energies such as by-product heat and pressure, LNG cold energy and others to improve the

comprehensive utilization of resources. In the final consumption link, continuously improve the

energy efficiency standards of fuel vehicles, improve the efficiency of internal combustion engines,

popularize advanced energy-saving technologies for fuel vehicles, and reduce the carbon

emission intensity of fuel vehicles.

Promote the substitution of high-carbon energy by natural gas.

In urban gas, industrial

fuel, transportation and other sectors, promote the substitution of coal by natural gas to reduce

carbon emissions. Based on national conditions and resource endowments, develop natural gas

power generation scientifically and appropriately, and give full play to the advantages of flexible

regulation and rapid response of natural gas power generation to promote the grid connection

and consumption of clean energy at a high proportion.

4.2.3 Low-Carbon Utilization

The low-carbon utilization technologies of coal-ﬁred power generation units mainly include

solid biomass direct blending, gasiﬁed biomass indirect blending, and blending of green

ammonia.

The low-carbon transition of coal-fired power generation units can maximize the use

of existing coal-fired power generation facilities, reduce asset idling, and reduce emissions per

kilowatt hour of coal-fired power generation. The direct solid biomass blended power generation

uses the similar main equipment as the traditional coal-fired power generation, but due to the

special characteristics of biomass during combustion, it has higher technical requirements for

the boiler. The indirect gasified biomass blended power generation technology requires the

biomass to be gasified into syngas for blending with coal to participate in power generation. This

technology can prevent biomass ash from entering the boiler, solve the problems of coking and

high temperature corrosion, and thus it exerts less impact on the combustion of the original boiler,

and can maintain the high working efficiency of the large power generation units to the greatest

extent, and in addition, such technology can simplify the raw material pretreatment process and

expand the scope of sources of biomass. Green ammonia blending is a kind of technology in

which the combustible ammonia is blended to replace a certain proportion of pulverized coal for

co-firing in the boiler. At present, the biomass blending technology has been maturely developed

and widely applied at home and around, while the green ammonia blending technology is still

under experimental research and small-scale demonstration.

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The core differences between biomass blended power generation and the traditional coal-

ﬁred power generation lies in the combustion system, mainly including the feeding system

and the boiler.

The key technologies required for biomass transformation include raw material

pretreatment technology, applicability technology of various raw materials to steam boilers, and

efficient combustion technology.

Raw material pretreatment technology.

The main obstacles to power generation by biomass

combustion are the nature and quality of biomass raw materials, including (1) the biomass fuel

features low melting point, rich potassium and sodium content, and easy formation of eutectic

with low melting point, and sticking with sand particles, and thus strict temperature control of

circulating combustion system is required in the process of boiler design; (2) Biomass fuel features

change with season and change of calorific value by type, which increases the difficulty of the fuel

supply system. Therefore, the solid biomass fuel needs to be pretreated by calcination^Abefore

combustion to meet the demand of boiler combustion.

Transformation of feeding system and combustion system.

Since both coal and sawdust

will be crushed before delivered into the boiler, the boiler is not very selective for fuel powder. By

transformation of existing chain boiler, oil-fired boiler or pulverized coal boiler into new boilers applied

with bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) technology or circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology, coal-fired

power generation units can usually realize biomass blending. BFB boilers support combustion of

100% biomasses, including bio-particles and forestry waste such as wood chips; and CFB boilers

support combustion of 100% biomass, 100% coal, or a mixture of biomass and coal.

Column 4.5

Practice of Low-Carbon Utilization of Coal Power

1. Practice in Europe

Europe is witnessing a trend of transforming coal-fired power plants into biomass power

plants, represented by biomass-coal co-firing solution in central and eastern Europe

and high-proportion biomass modification solution of coal-fired power generation unit in

the western Europe. The UK, Denmark, Finland and Poland rank the top in terms of the

proportion of the power generation capacity from biomass transformation of coal-fired

power generation units, which are 3%, 8%, 6% and 5% respectively. Drax Power Station

in the UK is at the forefront of technology research and practice in biomass transformation

of coal-fired power stations. It started the coal-to-biomass transformation in 2003, when

wood particles such as willow wood and crop shells such as sunflower seeds were

blended with coal for power generation, with a blending ratio of about 5%. Since then, the

biomass blending proportion has continued to increase, and by 2013, Drax Power Station

had achieved 100% biomass transformation of the 4 of 6 coal-fired power generation

Calcination is in essence a pyrolysis process, in which the biomass raw material is heated to 400-600°F

(205-315°C) in a low-oxygen environment to remove moisture and some light volatile substances, and also

decompose the cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin fibers in the biomass into more fragile substances for the

convenience of grinding in the subsequent process.

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units of 660 MW. Also in 2013, the coal power generation in UK reached a peak, with the

proportion of coal power generation falling from 40% to less than 5% year by year, and the

proportion of biomass power generation increased to 13%. Drax Power Station currently

embraces a biomass power generation capacity of 13.7 TWh/a, with an annual wood pellet

fuel consumption of about 13 million m³.

Figure 1 Coal-to-Biomass Transformation of Drax Power Station in the UK

2. Practice in the United States

From 2016-2017, Portland General Electric conducted four tests at its Boardman coal

Plant to transform the fuel of 585 MW pulverized coal power generation to biomass fuel.

The test results show that in addition to the continuous testing of biomass fuel calcination

and grinding process to find the biomass powder most suitable for boiler combustion, the

air-fuel ratio of the combustion furnace needs to be optimized to adapt to the humidity

changes of biomass fuel in different seasons.

3. Practice in China

In recent years, a number of biomass blended power generation projects have been

put into demonstration and operation in China. For example, the Huadian International

Shiliquan Power Plant is one of the power plants that applied biomass blending technology

earlier, which started straw blending power generation transformation in 2025, for which

straw storage, crushing and transportation devices and two special straw burners were

added on the basis of the original system and parameters of the boiler, and the air supply

system and related control systems were modified accordingly. Practical experience

shows that the straw blending with a proportion not more than 40% has little effect on

the properties of boiler fly ash, and will not cause heavy corrosion, blockage and wear

on the heating surface at the tail of boiler, and the normal power generation of the power

generation unit is ensured. The Guodian Changyuan Biomass Reburning Project is

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

adopted with the biomass gas reburning technology, in which the biomass is gasified by

high-speed circulating fluidized bed biomass gasification process into gas of low calorific

value efficiently with rice husk of water content less than 15% as raw material and then the

gas is delivered to a 600 MW boiler for blending with pulverized coal for power generation.

The energy utilization efficiency of such power generation is above 34%, far higher than the

energy utilization efficiency of 21% ~ 23% of direct biomass blending power plants.

4. Practice in Japan

In Japan, the 6th Strategic Energy Plan clearly puts forward the goal to achieve 20%

ammonia blending with coal by 2030, and plans to gradually increase the proportion of

blending, and build pure ammonia power plants by 2040. In 2017, the Mizushima Power

Plant achieved ammonia-coal co-firing for the first time with 0.6-0.8% of ammonia added

to the 155 MW coal-fired boiler, which exerted no impact on thermal efficiency and NOx

emissions and helped reduce the CO2 emissions. In October 2021, the Hekinan 1 GW

Thermal Power Plant finished the 20% ammonia blending test. The Mitsubishi Heavy

Industries (MHI) is developing a 40 MW ammonia gas turbine which achieves 100%

ammonia-fired power generation and combines selective catalytic reduction technology

with new combustion technologies to reduce NOx produced by incomplete ammonia

combustion.

4.2.4 Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture, utilization and storage

(or CCS/CCUS for short) refers to

the process of capturing, directly utilizing or storing carbon dioxide after the carbon dioxide is

separated from emission sources to achieve carbon dioxide emission reduction, which mainly

includes carbon capture, transportation, utilization and storage technologies. CCUS can realize

large-scale sustainable low-carbon utilization of fossil energy and help build a low-carbon

industrial system, and thus is an indispensable part of the carbon neutrality technology system.

CCUS technologies are developing rapidly, and some technologies are commercially

applicable. Carbon capture technology

is transitioning from the first generation to the second

generation, and the third generation is also rising up. The traditional post-combustion chemical

absorption technology and pre-combustion physical absorption technology have undergone

engineering demonstration and put into commercial operation, and the chemical absorption

technology, chemical adsorption technology, chemical chain combustion technology based on

In terms of carbon transportation technology,

the new absorbent are still under development.

the global CO₂land tank truck transportation technology and inland ship transportation

technology are relatively mature, the land pipeline transportation technology is the most potential

and economical, while the submarine pipeline transportation technology is still in the conceptual

In terms of carbon storage technology,

research stage.

technology has been applied in large scale, and oil & gas reservoir storage and marine storage

carbon utilization technology

deep salt water reservoir storage

technologies are developing rapidly. The

is extending from

the geological utilization for increased energy resource exploitation (such as CO₂enhanced oil

recovery (CO₂-EOR) and enhanced coalbed methane exploitation (CO₂-ECBM)) to chemical

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utilization and biological utilization, gradually realizing the green carbon utilization such as high

value-added chemical synthesis and biological product conversion.

CCUS technology will embrace continuous breakthroughs and the industry will be

ushered into rapid growth.

With the advancement of CCUS technology and the progressing of

demonstration projects, a new generation of carbon capture technology featuring low cost and

low energy consumption is developing rapidly, and gradually transitioning from pilot to industrial

demonstration. New ideas of CCUS technology continue to emerge and be verified. CCUS

demonstration projects are gradually developing from single-step application of technology to

integrated application of whole process and multiple links, with the demonstration scale and

application scenarios increasing continuously.

CCS is the main technical method for existing thermal power plants to achieve zero

emissions under the carbon neutrality goal.

The application of CCS to thermal plant, with

multiple requirements of power system including rapid emission reduction, and maintaining of

flexibility and reliability fully considered, is an important technical means to achieve near-zero

carbon emissions, provide stable, clean and low-carbon power supply, and balance the volatility

of renewable energy power generation, and in addition, CCS plays an important role in inertial

support and frequency control in response to seasonal or long-term power shortages. It is

A

estimated that more than 1 GtCO₂in the global power system will achieve net zero emissions

by CCS in 2050.

CCS is a feasible technical solution for industries incurring difficulty in carbon emission

reduction, such as steel and cement.

Taking China as an example, a remaining carbon

emissions of 34% and 48% are still expected in steel industry and cement industry in 2050 after

the application of regulation carbon emission reduction measures, and net zero emissions ^Bneed

to be achieved through CCS technology.

4.2.5 Scenario Comparison

Two groups of scenarios are designed to compare the impact of different coal-fired installed

capacity on the safety and economy of the power system: reference scenario (i.e. global energy

interconnection and carbon neutral scenario in this report), and comparison scenario (low coal-

fired installed capacity scenario). In the comparison scenario, in 2050, the global coal-fired

installed capacity is reduced from about 1.6 TW to about 0.5 TW, and the installed capacity of

hydrogen-fired power generation is increased equally to keep the installed capacity of regulatory

power supply unchanged; and meanwhile, the installed available hours of coal power is kept

unchanged, and the reduced power generation by coal power due to reduced installed capacity

is supplemented by the increase in hydrogen-fired power generation capacity, and the wind/PV

power generation capacity and the corresponding installed capacity are doubled accordingly;

other conditions remains unchanged.

Source: GEIDCO, Global Carbon Neutrality Road, Beijing: Electric Power Press, 2021.

Source: Cai Bofeng, Li Qi, Zhang Xian, China Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Annual

Report (2021)-China CCUS Path Study, 2021.

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Table 4.7 Global Electricity Scenarios in 2050

Installed capacity (GW)

Power generation (TWh)

Installed

Reference

scenario

Comparison

scenarios

Reference

Comparison

scenarios

capacity/power

scenario

generation capacity

Coal power

1578

9919

17149

872

504

3388

25550

26005

1554

1082

27856

28311

3860

Wind power

PV power

10170

17349

1946

Hydrogen-fired power generation

According to the forecast of power generation capacity and power generation cost of various

power sources, the combined electricity cost under different CCUS and hydrogen-fired power

generation costs are compared. For this purpose, 9 “CCUS+hydrogen” cost combinations

are formed by defining the cost into three levels for each, namely low, medium and high, and

the combined electricity cost in 8 combinations (except for the “low hydrogen + high CCUS”

combination) is lower than that in the reference scenario, and in the “low hydrogen + high CCUS”

combination), the cost difference is very large. Specifically, the combined LCOE in reference

scenario is 1.6% lower than that in the comparison scenario and the total electricity cost is USD

70 billion lower.

Table 4.8 Comparison of Combined Electricity Cost

LCOE in

Total electricity

LCOE in

reference

scenario

LCOE in

comparison

scenario

reference

scenario

cost in reference

scenario lower than

comparison scenario

( billion USD)

Cost combination

cents/kWh

lower than

comparison

scenario

(cents/kWh)

Low hydrogen + Medium CCUS

(Hydrogen: 5.7, CCUS: 2)

5.41

5.44

5.46

5.42

5.47

5.52

0.02%

0.54%

1.05%

9

Medium hydrogen + Medium CCUS

(Hydrogen: 6.4, CCUS: 2)

239

469

High hydrogen+ Medium CCUS

(Hydrogen: 7.1, CCUS: 2)

Due to the economic advantages brought by the life extension of built coal power plants, under

the conditions that CCS (with carbon emissions unchanged) is configured and the installed

capacity of regulatory power supply is kept unchanged (with safety and reliability of power supply

ensured), the reference scenario in which more coal power generation units are maintained has a

lower combined electricity cost compared with the comparison scenario in which more hydrogen-

fired power generation units are newly built to replace the coal-fired power generation units.

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To sum up, for developing countries with a high proportion of coal-fired installed capacity such as

China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa, it is a better choice in most cases to maintain the coal-

fired power generation units to ensure safe and reliable power supply by using their capacity value

and adjustment capabilities while configuring CCS to reduce or even eliminate carbon emissions.

4.3 Construction of Flexible Resource System

Flexibility improvement of the power system is the key to the large-scale clean energy

consumption, the safety and stability of the power system and normal operation of economy.

Flexible resources for traditional power system are mainly thermal power and pumped storage

hydropower. With the development of technologies such as new energy storage and virtual

power plant and the continuous improvement of demand response mechanisms, a diversified and

flexible power-grid-load-storage resource system will be established progressively to ensure the

real-time dynamic balance and safe and stable operation of the power system.

4.3.1 Development of New-Type Energy Storage Technologies

There are various energy storage technologies with different technical and economic

characteristics and obvious differences in application scenarios. As technologies go more

mature and the cost declines, new-type energy storage technologies except pumped storage

are gradually applied to the power system. In the future, various energy storage technologies are

expected to become an important part of the flexible resource system.

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Lithium-iron (sodium-ion) Battery Energy Storage

1

Among various new energy storage technologies, the electrochemical energy storage technology

has the fastest progress and the greatest development potential. Lithium-ion battery energy

storage technology has good comprehensive performance. As various material systems can

be selected and rapid technological progress is made, the lithium-ion battery energy storage

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

technology is the mainstream of electrochemical energy storage technology currently. At present,

a lithium-ion battery energy storage has reached to 5000 to 6000 cycles, with the energy density

of 200 Wh/kg. Constrained by the cost of positive and negative materials, electrolyte, system

components, etc., the total cost of system construction is about $200/kWh.

Battery safety and cycle number improvement and cost reduction are the focus for the

development of the lithium (sodium) ion battery energy storage technology. It is estimated

that by 2030,

non-lithium electrochemical batteries with lower cost and wider material sources,

such as sodium ion batteries, will become important large-scale energy storage devices in power

systems, and new all-solid electrolyte lithium ion batteries will be commercialized. The battery

safety will be significantly improved, the number of cycles will be increased to 7000-8000, the

energy density will be increased to 250 Wh/kg, and the system construction cost will be reduced

It is estimated that by 2050,

to about $150/kWh.

the lithium-sulfur battery and metal-air battery

with new structure will be applied on a large scale, the safety problem will be effectively solved,

the cycle number will be increased to 1~14,000, the energy density will be increased to 300~350

Wh/kg, and the system construction cost will be reduced to $70~90/kWh^A.

Compressed Air Energy Storage

2

The compressed air energy storage technology has the advantages of numerous cycles and long

service life. It can be an effective supplement to mainstream energy storage technologies and has

certain development potential. China has built up 60-MW advanced adiabatic compressed air

and 1.5-MW cryogenic liquefied compressed air demonstration projects. As for compressed air

energy storage, the installed capacity can be up to megawatt, the service life is about 30 years,

the number of cycles is about tens of thousands, and the energy conversion efficiency is about

50%~60%^B. Constrained by the cost of key equipment such as air compressor, turbine, and air

storage tank, the total cost of the compressed air energy storage system is about 7000~9000

yuan/kW.

System efficiency improvement and cost reduction are the focus for the development

of the compressed air energy storage technology.

In the future, key research directions are

the wide-range high-temperature centrifugal compression technology, multi-stage re-thermal

expansion technology, nano-micro-structure composite heat and cold storage materials, system

integration and test technologies, the standardization of new equipment, air energy storage

technology under new systems such as isothermal compression and isobaric compression, and

gas compression energy storage technology using other working fluids (such as carbon dioxide).

It is estimated that by 2030,

for the compressed air energy storage system, the efficiency will

be increased to 55%~65%, the continuous discharge time will exceed 30 hours, and the cost will

It is estimated that by 2050,

be reduced to 4000~7000 yuan/kW.

the efficiency of the system

will be increased to 70%, the continuous discharge time will reach 100 hours, and the cost will be

reduced to 3000~5500 yuan/kW.

Source: The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, The Development

Roadmap of Large-scale Energy Storage Technology, Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2020.

Source: Chen Laijun, Mei Shengwei, Wang Junjie, etc., Large-scale Compressed Air Energy Storage

Technology for Smart Grid, Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy, 2014, 33(6): 1-6.

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Hydrogen Energy Storage

3

Hydrogen is a physical substance that is easier to store on a large scale than electricity. The hydrogen

energy storage technology involving electrohydrogen production, hydrogen storage container and

hydrogen power generation equipment is the most promising long-term energy storage technology in

the future. At present, electrohydrogen production mainly adopts the alkaline electrolyzer technology

with the efficiency of about 60%~70%; hydrogen storage mainly adopts the high-pressure gaseous

hydrogen storage technology, with the hydrogen storage density of about 10~15 mol/L and the

continuous discharge time of less than 1 day; hydrogen power generation is mainly achieved

through the fuel cell technology, and the overall conversion efficiency of the hydrogen energy storage

technology is about 30%~40%^A. In terms of economy, the cost of the hydrogen energy storage

system is about 10,000~15,000 yuan/kW due to the constraints of various factors such as equipment

cost, hydrogen storage method and equipment utilization rate.

Conversion efﬁciency and hydrogen storage density improvement and cost reduction are

the focus for the development of the hydrogen energy storage technology.

For hydrogen

energy storage, the key research and development directions are reactor, electrode and

diaphragm material improvement, electrolyzer design and manufacturing process optimization,

low-cost highly-reliable high-pressure gaseous and cryogenic liquid hydrogen storage equipment,

new liquid organic and metal hydrogen storage technologies, new fuel cells, hydrogen gas

It is estimated that by 2030,

turbines and other hydrogen application technologies.

the efficiency

of the hydrogen energy storage system will be increased to 35%~45%, the hydrogen storage

density will be increased to 15~20 mol/L, the continuous discharge time will reach more than 100

It is estimated that by

hours, and the system cost will be reduced to 7000~10,000 yuan/kW.

2050,

the efficiency of the system will be increased to 60%~65%, the hydrogen storage density

will exceed 30~35 mol/L, the continuous discharge time will reach more than two weeks, and the

system cost will be reduced to 6000~8500 yuan/kW.

Thermal Storage

4

Thermal storage technology has low cost and easy expansion capacity. It can achieve large-scale

storage, but the efficiency of heat-electricity conversion process is low. As a thermal storage medium,

molten salt has stable working state, high thermal storage density and long thermal storage time. It is

suitable for large-scale medium and high temperature thermal storage, and a single power generator

can achieve a thermal storage capacity of more than 100 MWh. At present, the molten salt thermal

storage technology has been well applied in the field of photothermal power generation, and the cost

of the thermal storage system is about 200~250 yuan/kWh.

In the future, the electricity-heat-electricity conversion efficiency and thermal storage

density improvement, cost reduction and new application scenarios will be the focus for

the development of the thermal storage technology.

The key research directions will be new

thermal storage materials with higher temperature such as high temperature ceramics and phase

change materials, complete design and construction technologies for large-capacity cross-season

thermal storage, wide application of phase change thermal storage and chemical thermal storage

Source: Hua Zhigang, Key Technologies and Business Operation Models for Energy Storage, Beijing: China

Electric Power Press, 2019.

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

in clean electricity heating, mobile thermal storage and other scenarios, and the application of

gigawatt electricity-heat-electricity high-temperature thermal storage as energy storage in power

It is estimated that by 2030,

systems.

electricity-heat-electricity conversion efficiency will be increased to 60%, and the cost will be

It is estimated that by 2050,

the thermal storage density will increase by 30%, the

reduced to less than 140 yuan/kWh.

the thermal storage density

will increase by 50%, the electricity-heat-electricity conversion efficiency will reach more than

65%, and the cost is expected to drop to 60~70 yuan/kWh.

Establishment of New-Type Energy Storage System

5

In the future, with clean energy accounting for a high proportion of the energy storage system,

numerous energy storage devices will form a comprehensive energy storage system suitable for

the development of modern energy system from various dimensions including time scale and

configuration link, providing flexible adjustment ability.

From the perspective of time scale, the ultra-short-time energy storage (discharge duration of minutes

or below) is mainly used to stabilize the rapid random fluctuation of new energy power generation

or power load, or to participate in the primary frequency regulation of the system; short-time energy

storage (discharge duration of hours) mainly provides power adjustment capability for the system,

which is an important guarantee for system flexibility and the backbone of the future energy storage

system; long-term energy storage (discharge duration of weeks and above) mainly provides energy

regulation capacity for the system, which is essential in the development of the energy system from

high proportion to ultra-high or even 100% of clean energy.

From the perspective of configuration link, the power side is properly developed with the

regulatable concentrating solar power generation, taking dominating electrochemical energy

storage for short-term energy storage, and compressed air, hydrogen energy storage, etc. for

long-term energy storage; the grid side is configured with short-term energy storage based on

pumped storage hydropower, electrochemical energy storage, etc.; the user side uses a large

number of connected electric vehicles for short-term energy storage, and P2X-based hydrogen

(ammonia) energy storage for long-term energy storage.

From the perspective of establishment process, the establishment of the energy storage

system is closely related to the process of energy transition, and the energy storage on

the power grid side, power generation side and user side will develop in turn.

When the

proportion of new energy is low, we should give full play to the regulation capacity of regular

power supply, build pumped storage facilities on the power grid side, and actively explore the

engineering application of new power storage technologies to basically meet the system demand.

With the increasing proportion of new energy, energy storage on the power grid side alone

cannot provide sufficient flexibility, and it is necessary to configure energy storage facilities on the

power generation side to stabilize the randomness and volatility of new energy power generation.

On the user side, electric vehicles are connected to the grid in the form of V2G, gradually playing

’

the role of energy storage. As the proportion of clean energy keeps increasing, the system s

demand for long-term cross-seasonal adjustment capabilities increases accordingly. Relying on

P2X technologies such as electrohydrogen (electroammonia) production, multiple energy systems

are interconnected to integrate and optimize the energy storage capabilities scattered in different

systems and establish a “generalized energy storage” system to solve the seasonal supply and

demand difference issues of the system with the overall energy demand unchanged.

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

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Column 4.6

Fengning Pumped Storage Power Station

Fengning Pumped Storage Power Station is the largest pumped storage power station

in the world. It is located on the main stream of the Luan River in Fengning Manchu

Autonomous County, Hebei Province, adjacent to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Load Center

and the 10 GW-level new energy base in northern Hebei.

In this project, a total of 12 300-MW single-stage reversible water pump turbine generator

sets have been installed, with a total installed capacity of 3.6 GW, being the largest

pumped storage power station in the world. The full utilization hours of 12 generator sets

reach 10.8 hours, which can provide the maximum regulating output equivalent to 1/3 of

that of the Three Gorges Hydroelectric Power Station in case of emergency. It is the only

pumped storage power station with weekly regulating performance in North China, with

the highest energy storage capacity in the world. The power station also systematically

conquered the key construction technologies of super-large underground cavern groups

under complicated geological conditions for the first time in the world, providing technical

support and engineering demonstration for the large-scale development and construction

of pumped storage in the future.

Main achievements of the project are as follows:

Firstly, promote the clean energy accommodation and emission reduction. The Fengning

Power Station can store nearly 40 GWh of new energy electricity and consume 8.7 TWh of

new energy annually. It can save 480,000 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide

emissions by 1.2 million tons, equivalent to planting more than 24,000 hectares of forest.

Secondly, drive investment and employment in the new energy sector. The construction of

the Fengning power station will improve local transportation and basic living infrastructure,

drive investment and the development of related industries, and stimulate local GDP

growth by over 42.2 billion yuan.

076

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Figure 1 Reservoir of Fengning Pumped Storage Power Station

4.3.2 Virtual Power Plant

Virtual power plant achieves aggregation, coordination and optimization of massive distributed

new energy facilities, energy storage systems, controllable loads and electric vehicles through

advanced information communication, monitoring and control technologies. They serve as

special power plants to participate in the operation of the power grid and the power coordination

management in the power market, like a controllable power supply. They can not only work as a

“positive power plant” to supply power and release the peak of the system, but also as a “negative

power plant” to fill the valley through the load side response to match the system. They can not

only respond to instructions quickly, cooperate to ensure system stability and obtain economic

compensation, but also can be equivalent to a power plant participating in various power markets

such as capacity, electricity and auxiliary services to obtain economic benefits.

Global Development Status

1

In recent years, the practice of virtual power plants around the world is increasing, and

experiments and demonstrations have been carried out in many countries such as the United

Kingdom, the European Union, the United States, Australia and China, and virtual power plants

have gradually entered the stage of commercial operation. In 2022, the total installed capacity

European Union

of virtual power plants in the

is close to 50 GW, mainly in France, Germany,

United

etc. The total installed capacity of virtual power plants built and put into operation in the

States

has exceeded 30 GW, of which about 24% are located in California. The total installed

United Kingdom

capacity of virtual power plants in the

has reached 13 GW. The total installed

Australia

capacity of virtual power plants in

is close to 2 GW. The total installed capacity of virtual

China

power plants in

is close to 2 GW. Overall, virtual power plants in the global scope are still

in the initial stage of development, with low proportion in the total installed capacity of all power

077

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

generation facilities, only about 1%. In China, the United States, the European Union, etc., the

proportion is generally less than 5%.

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Figure 4.10 Proportion of Virtual Power Plants Installed Capacity in Total Installed Capacity of

Various Countries^A

Energy Electrification and Cleaning

2

With the rapid growth of distributed wind and solar power generation, energy storage systems

and controllable loads, virtual power plants can aggregate and optimize such resources, thereby

improving the safety and reliability of the power grid and enhancing the accommodation ability

Firstly, virtual power plants help the power system in safe and stable

for clean energy.

operation.

By integrating, optimizing and controlling various resources such as distributed

power supply and flexible load, virtual power plants respond to the demand for safe operation

of the power system and provide various flexible services such as peak regulation, frequency

regulation and demand response, which can significantly improve the balance and dynamic

adjustment capacity of the power system and help reduce the instability brought by large-scale

Secondly, virtual power plants

renewable energy-to-grid connection to the power system.

help the system cleaning and low-carbon transition.

A virtual power plant can aggregate

new energy, traditional energy, user-side flexible loads and energy storage devices to form a

unified whole, showing stable power output characteristics to large power grids under intelligent

collaborative regulation and decision support, helping the power grid accommodate more volatile

new energy resources, especially suitable for the development of distributed renewable energy.

Thirdly, Virtual power plants help the system achieve cost reduction and beneﬁt increasing.

Virtual power plants promote fair and diversified market competition and ensure systematic price

stability.

Source: GEIDCO, Bloomberg.

A

078

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Application Prospect

3

Virtual power plants will gradually become an important supplement in building the

regulation ability of the power system.

Exploiting the regulation potential on the load side is an

important part in building the regulation ability of the future power system. It is estimated that by

2050, about 10%~15% of the global total power load will be adjustable and controllable (about 3.3

TW), of which about 1.5 TW is the regulated capacity aggregated in virtual power plant mode. In

terms of the total installed capacity of virtual power plants, it is estimated that by 2050, the global

installed capacity of virtual power plants will exceed 3.8 TW, accounting for nearly 10% of the

total installed capacity, and the proportion in China, the European Union, the United States, etc.

will be close to 20%.

Column 4.7

Next Kraftwerke Virtual Power Plant in Germany

Next Kraftwerke, which was founded in 2009, is a large-scale virtual power plant operator

and also an energy trader certified by the European Power Exchange (EPEX), which

participates in spot market trading of energy.

As of 2022, a total of 15,346 distributed energy units with a total capacity of 11.2 GW have

been aggregated in the Next Kraftwerke Virtual Power Plant Project, with an annual traded

electricity volume of 15.1 TWh, involving 17 types of resource technologies, including

biogas power generation, CHP, hydropower, PV, battery energy storage, power-to-gas,

electric vehicle, demand response, etc. The aggregation analysis software NEMOCS is

developed, which enables traders to reduce the deviation between the day-ahead forecast

and the actual power generation in real time through the software platform, and reduce the

deviation risk. Through the monitoring and analysis function of NEMOCS, the prediction

accuracy of this project can reach 95%.

The main achievements of the Project are as follows: Firstly, reduce the loss caused by

prediction deviation in new energy generation. By optimizing and integrating the randomly

fluctuating wind power, PV power, and synchronous generator outputs from distributed

resources such as gas turbines and biomass, it participates in electricity market transactions,

helping clean energy generation companies achieve deviation assessment in the electricity

market, and avoiding losses from market penalty due to inaccurate forecasts on wind power

generation and PV power generation. Secondly, enhance the profit potential by participating

in market transactions. By adjusting the output of virtual power plant through the electricity

market’s trading windows every 15 minutes (96 times per day), low-valley electricity

consumption and peak-time electricity sales are achieved to maximize profits. Thirdly,

obtain revenue from grid auxiliary services. By coordinating the operation strategy of the

resource pool for power generation and consumption, participation in grid balancing

ancillary services is optimized; the demand for various resources is adjusted according to

the grid conditions, to obtain income from participating in grid regulation.

079

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Figure 1 Diagram for Next Kraftwerke Virtual Power Plant Project

4.3.3 Electricity-Hydrogen Co-Development

Both electricity and hydrogen are zero-carbon energy forms that can be used directly in final

energy consumption. They will play an important role in the energy consumption system aimed

at the goal of carbon neutrality. It is estimated that by 2050, the rate of electricity consumption in

total final energy consumption (including electricity for hydrogen production) will reach 63%, and

the rate of hydrogen consumption in total final energy consumption will reach about 10%.

The electricity-hydrogen co-development has a good technical foundation and great

development potential.

Compared with other energy forms, electricity and hydrogen, especially

green electricity and green hydrogen, are more closely related. The development of their

production originates from the same sources, i.e., all clean primary energy sources such as

water, wind and sunlight. Their applications at the consumer end are complementary. In many

final energy consumption fields with difficulties in direct use of electricity such as chemical

industry, water transportation sector and metallurgic industry, green hydrogen plays an important

role, which can achieve de-carbonization. Electricity and hydrogen can be easily converted

into each other through hydrogen power generation technologies such as water-electrolytic

hydrogen production technology, fuel cell and hydrogen gas turbine. Electricity is an invisible

energy form. It can be transmitted at the speed of light with the help of transmission equipment,

but can be hardly stored directly and needs to be converted into other forms of energy through

energy storage technologies, such as pumped storage and electrochemical battery. Hydrogen

is a tangible substance. Compared with electricity, hydrogen can be easily stored directly or

converted into other compounds such as ammonia and methanol to achieve long-term and large-

080

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

scale storage. However, the loss or energy consumption of hydrogen in the transmission process

is large, and the transmission speed is much lower than that of electricity. The establishment

of a zero-carbon energy system with electricity-hydrogen co-development can give full play to

the advantages and good economy of mature electricity transmission technology and the long-

term large-scale energy storage function of hydrogen storage, improve the utilization efficiency

of new energy power generation, hydrogen production, electricity transmission and hydrogen

transmission equipment, enhance the diversified adaptability, supply reliability and operation

flexibility of the energy system, and reduce the overall investment in the energy system.

The electricity-hydrogen co-development has important comprehensive value.

As for the

flexibility value,

in short-term scale (hours to days), electrohydrogen production is a flexible

load, which can not only complement the traditional electricity load and reduce the peak-

valley difference, but also better match the fluctuating new energy power generation, so as to

significantly improve the utilization rate of new energy; in long-term scale (months to quarters),

the hydrogen storage equipment capacity required by the green hydrogen industrial chain itself

can be used to achieve cross-season large-scale storage of new energy sources such as wind

and sunlight, the seasonal fluctuations of new energy power systems with a high proportion can

power supply guarantee value,

be effectively suppressed. As for the

with the characteristics of

electricity-hydrogen two-way conversion, electrohydrogen production can be used as a flexible

load to provide the power system with adjustment capacity, and hydrogen power generation

equipment can provide power support for the power system if necessary, so as to effectively

improve the toughness of the power grid on both power and load sides. Especially there is

no wind and sunlight or little wind and sunlight in several consecutive days, hydrogen power

system security

generation can effectively improve the guarantee of power supply. As for the

value,

the hydrogen gas turbines are a synchronous generator set, which can effectively improve

the moment of inertia and dynamic reactive support capacity of the system. Hydrogen gas

turbines arranged in receiving-end area are one of the important means to prevent the “hollowing”

phenomenon of the receiving-end power grid, which is of great significance to the safety and

emission reduction value,

stability of the power system. As for the

the zero-carbon energy

system with electricity-hydrogen co-development creates conditions for the development and

application of green hydrogen, which promotes the deep de-carbonization of the whole society.

Green hydrogen will play a key role as a link between clean energy and final energy consumption

areas that are difficult to use electricity directly, and promote the deep de-carbonization in non-

electric energy consumption areas such as chemical industry and metallurgic industry. Electricity

and hydrogen will be closely coupled to build an interconnected modern energy network to

achieve a clean, low-carbon and sustainable energy system in the future.

081

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Column 4.7

Electricity-Hydrogen Co-Development and

Configuration Scheme Case

1. Electricity-Hydrogen Co-Development in China

Due to the uneven distribution of natural resources, clean energy resources in China are

geographically distributed in the opposite direction of energy demand. Objectively, it is

necessary to carry out long-distance and large-scale transmission of green electricity

and green hydrogen. The western China is rich in renewable energy resources, and the

production cost of green hydrogen is about 50% of that in the eastern and central China.

Solving the problem of energy transmission is an important foundation for promoting the

wide application of green hydrogen and accelerating the carbon neutrality in the whole

society.

A zero-carbon energy system with electricity-hydrogen co-development can achieve

the optimal configuration of green hydrogen. The combination of direct hydrogen

transmission and electricity transmission replacing hydrogen transmission can give full

play to the advantages and good economy of mature electricity transmission technology

and the long-term large-scale energy storage function of hydrogen storage, improve the

utilization efficiency of new energy power generation, electricity transmission and hydrogen

production equipment, and reduce the overall investment in the energy system. It is

estimated that by 2060, the total amount of inter-regional hydrogen transmission in China

will be 35 MtH₂(accounting for about 45% of the total demand), of which 8.5 MtH₂will

be transmitted directly by pipelines, 9 MtH₂will be transmitted by ammonia, methanol or

natural gas pipelines with mixed hydrogen, and about 70 GWh (equivalent to 17.5 MtH₂,

Figure 1 Framework of Combined Electricity-Hydrogen Configuration in China

082

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

accounting for 50% of the total transmission volume) will be transmitted by electricity

transmission instead of hydrogen transmission. At the same time, compared with a single

energy transmission method, diversified energy transmission methods can improve the

flexibility, reliability and anti-risk ability of energy allocation and effectively control the safety

risks of the energy system.

2. Electricity-Hydrogen Co-Development in Asia, Africa and Europe

Asia, Africa and Europe are vast together, connected by mountains and rivers, with high

energy consumption potential and different clean resource endowments. It is of great

significance to coordinate the clean energy resource endowments and the electricity and

hydrogen demand characteristics in Asia, Europe and Africa, build backbone channels for

energy transmission, and achieve the complementary and efficient utilization of multiple

types of energy, so as to promote the integration of regional energy governance, improve

energy availability and promote the global clean energy transition.

Using the electricity-hydrogen co-optimization model based on multi-time scale and time

series production simulation, the expansion planning analysis of the combined electricity-

hydrogen energy system including clean energy power generation, hydrogen production,

electricity transmission and hydrogen transmission, energy storage and hydrogen power

generation equipment among sub-regions of Asia, Europe and Africa (northern Saharan

Africa) in 2050 is carried out with the goal of optimal economy. The results show that in the

future, an energy allocation pattern with large-scale developed renewable energy in energy

source centers, i.e., Western Asia, Northern Africa and Central Asia, transmitted through

both electricity transmission and hydrogen transmission to energy consumption centers on

the east and west sides of the continents, i.e., Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and European,

should be established.

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083

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

4.4 Deep Promotion of Novel Electrification

Improving the electrification rate of the energy system and reducing the total energy consumption

and the energy consumption side carbon emissions are an important point of inclusive energy

transition and an inevitable requirement for carbon neutrality. We should accelerate the promotion

of electricity replacement in major fields such as industries, building and transportation, improve

the electrification rate of the final energy consumption, enhance the energy usage efficiency, and

promote the coupling and coordinated development of electricity, hydrogen, cold, heat and gases

through multi-energy complement methods such as heat complementation by electricity, cold

complementation by electricity and heat complementation by gases, so as to achieve diversified

energy utilization methods and promote the establishment of an energy consumption system

centered on electricity and supported by electricity, hydrogen, cold, heat and gases.

4.4.1 Industrial Sector

Iron and Steel Industry

1

The energy structure of the iron and steel industry is dominated by coal. As the coal consumption

in global steel production accounts for more than 60% of the total final energy consumption in

this industry, there is still much room for improvement in the electrification rate. Steel is a major

material in the building sector, transportation sector, manufacturing sector and consumer goods

sector, and is essential to economic development. With the development of economy, there is

still a lot of room for growth in global steel demand, and the development of emerging economies

will drive the continuous growth of steel demand. At present, the iron and steel industry is facing

challenges such as locked high-carbon industrial path, unbalanced industrial development, and

insufficient low-carbon industrial competitiveness. It is necessary to accelerate the electrification in

the iron and steel industry, mainly including electricity replacement and hydrogen replacement.

Promote electricity replacement.

For electricity replacement, electric furnace steelmaking

and electrolysis steelmaking are mainly developed. In the electric furnace steelmaking process,

steel scrap is taken as the main raw material, electricity is used as the main energy, and steel

scrap is melted for direct steelmaking. The electrolysis steelmaking can be a flexible way to

participate in the regulation of the power system, with significant energy-saving advantages^A. The

capacity building of electric furnace steelmaking should be reasonably planned, the application

of electrolysis steelmaking process equipment should be promoted, and the electric furnace

Establish

steelmaking and electrolysis steelmaking should be promoted in an orderly manner.

a scrap recycling system.

The scrap trading mechanism should be optimized to promote

the development of the scrap industry, fully tap the potential of scrap resources and improve

Establish an electricity-based steel industry system.

economy.

The research, development

and promotion of advanced electric furnace steelmaking and electrolysis steelmaking equipment

and processes should be continuously strengthened, in order to promote the development of

large-capacity high-power intelligent electric furnaces and improve the energy efficiency and

In the electrolysis steelmaking process, iron ore is mainly used. It is immersed in silica and calcium oxide

solution at 1,600°C, and decomposes when the current passes through the electrolyte solution. With real-time

controlled electrolysis speed, electrolytic steelmaking can be used as a flexible load for interactive coordination

with the power supply, so as to achieve optimization and coordination with renewable energy power generation

and enhance the regulation performance of the power system.

A

084

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

economy of electric furnace steelmaking.

Development path of electricity replacement.

In the carbon emissions peak stage, the

electricity consumption and electrification rate should be increased rapidly. By 2030, the electricity

consumption in the global steel industry will reach 200 million tonnes of standard coal equivalent

carbon neutral stage,

(Mtce), and the electrification rate will increase from 21% to 24%. In the

the output of electric furnace steelmaking will increase steadily, and the electrification rate will

be further improved. By 2050, the electricity consumption will be increased to 260 Mtce and the

electrification rate to 36%.

Promote hydrogen replacement.

Hydrogen as a reducing agent reacts with iron ore

to produce iron and water, which is a clean carbon-free metallurgical process that can

completely decarbonize the steel production. Global hydrogen metallurgy technology is still

in the research, development and experiment stage. With the energy efficiency improvement

of electrohydrogen production and hydrogen steelmaking and the reduction of equipment

Strengthen policy

cost, hydrogen steelmaking can be gradually promoted on a global scale.

support.

Steelmakers should be promoted orderly to perform hydrogen steelmaking to replace

traditional long steelmaking processes, the proportion of hydrogen steelmaking should be

gradually increased, supporting policy mechanisms such as green hydrogen subsidies should be

established, and the coordinated development of hydrogen steelmaking and hydrogen industrial

Establish a sound hydrogen energy development industrial chain.

chain should be promoted.

The coordinated development of clean energy power generation, water-electrolytic hydrogen

production and hydrogen steelmaking should be promoted, the hydrogen energy preparation,

transportation and storage mechanisms should be improved to reduce the hydrogen energy cost

Make breakthroughs to core technologies.

and improve the hydrogen production efficiency.

The study of the reaction mechanism in the furnace and the change of the characteristics of the

furnace burden should be deepened as focus, and the technological innovation of the hydrogen

blast furnace steelmaking technology, hydrogen-resistant high-temperature and high-safety

materials, hydrogen explosion and leakage prevention, etc. should be promoted to improve the

capacity and output of hydrogen steelmaking equipment.

Development path of hydrogen replacement.

carbon emissions peak stage,

the

In the

accelerated development of hydrogen steelmaking should be promoted. By 2030, the output

of hydrogen energy steelmaking will reach 0.13 billion tonnes, accounting for 3% of total steel

carbon neutral stage,

production. In the

hydrogen steelmaking should be applied in a large

scale. By 2050, the output of hydrogen steelmaking will reach 0.8 billion tonnes, accounting for

30% of total steel production.

Chemical Industry

2

The chemical industry is the largest energy-consuming industry in the industrial field. The

proportion of fossil fuel consumption in global chemical products is close to 90%, and the

electrification rate is only less than 10%. With the accelerated development of emerging countries,

the overall global demand for chemical products will maintain a growth trend, and the new

demand will gradually tilt to Southeast Asia, Africa and South America. The chemical industry

should focus on the electricity replacement and electrical raw material replacement, and its

dependence on fossil fuels should be gradually reduced.

085

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Promote electricity replacement.

Promoting the electricity replacement in production processes

in the chemical industry and improving the electrification rate of chemical process equipment

are the key to reducing the dependence of the chemical synthesis process on fossil fuels. There

are two main methods: (1) replace the traditional fossil fuel combustion with electric heating; (2)

Make

replace the traditional high temperature reaction process with electrochemical process.

breakthroughs to key technologies and equipment for electrification.

Cooperation with

electric heating equipment enterprises should be strengthened, and economic and efficient

heating equipment suitable for chemical production such as heat pump and electric heating

reactor should be developed to upgrade the technical level of electric heating processes.

Promote the development of electrification industry.

Major chemical producing countries

should orderly promote chemical enterprises to use electric heating equipment to replace

traditional fossil fuel heating equipment, and vigorously promote the commercial application of

electric chemical technologies.

Development path of electricity replacement.

carbon emissions peak stage,

electric

In the

heating applications should be promoted as the focus. By 2030, the electricity consumption in

global chemical industry will reach 210 Mtce, and the electrification rate will increase to 10%. In

carbon neutral stage,

the

new electrochemical processes should be developed as the focus.

By 2050, the electricity consumption will reach 350 Mtce, and the electrification rate will increase

to 16%.

Promote the electrical raw material replacement.

With electricity as energy, carbon element

in carbon dioxide, hydrogen element in water and nitrogen element in air are reduced and

recombined to generate organic or inorganic raw materials that can be used. In short and medium

terms, developed countries with strong chemical industry foundations, i.e., Europe and the United

States, have the conditions to develop and lead electrical raw material industry. In medium and

long terms, with the large-scale development of clean energy, the sharp decline of electricity price,

technological progress and energy efficiency improvement, electrical raw material technologies

Break technological bottlenecks.

will be gradually popularized in the world.

The research on the

reaction mechanism and kinetics of chemical processes should be strengthened, new catalysts

should be developed and produced, the conversion efficiency and rate of electrical raw materials

should be improved and the process flow should be improved and optimized to reduce the

Actively promote demonstration projects.

energy consumption and process cost.

In areas rich

in clean energy resources and carbon dioxide resources, integrated scientific and technological

demonstration projects such as high-efficiency electroammonia production and large-capacity

carbon dioxide hydrogenation methanation and methanation should be actively promoted to lay

Establish a

the foundation for the commercial application of electrical raw material technologies.

sound industrial chain.

The upstream electrohydrogen production and carbon capture related

industrial chains should be cultivated and improved, the large-scale production of low-energy

and high-efficiency reactor devices should be promoted to reduce the cost of raw materials and

devices and realize the large-scale commercial application of electric fuels.

Development path of electrical raw materials.

carbon emissions peak stage,

the

In the

demonstration application of electroammonia production should be promoted. By 2030, the scale

carbon neutral stage,

of electroammonia production will reach millions of tonnes. In the

electrical

raw materials should be promoted to become the main sources of chemical raw materials. By

2050, the output of electroammonia production and electromethanol production will reach 160

million tonnes and 310 million tonnes respectively.

086

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Column 4.8

Shell Refhyne Power-to-Hydrogen Project in Germany

The Refhyne Electrohydrogen Production Project is located in the Shell Energy and

Chemicals Park Rheinland in Germany. It is currently the largest proton exchange

membrane (PEM) water electrolysis hydrogen production project in Europe. The project

was jointly built by Shell and ITM Power, a British electrolyzer producer, and the green

hydrogen produced is currently mainly used for refining operation.

The project covers an area of over 600 square meters, with 10 MW PEM electrolyzer

already completed for Phase 1, producing 1,300 tonnes of green hydrogen annually. The

Refhyne II project is planned to expand the scale of electrolyzer to 100 MW. Compared

with alkaline electrolyzers, the proton exchange membrane electrolyzers used in this project

allow faster and more efficient reactions, which is of great significance for exploring the

large-scale industrial application of proton exchange membrane electrolyzers. At present,

the hydrogen produced is directly supplied to refineries through pipelines as raw materials

for refining, and the coupling of hydrogen production and petroleum refining is realized. It is

planned that the hydrogen produced is used in the transportation sector, building heating

sector and other fields in the future.

The main achievements of the Project are as follows: 1. Establish a low-carbon

development model for the petrochemical industry. The petrochemical industry is an

industry with high carbon emissions and difficult decarbonization. In the process of

achieving climate neutrality, the properties of crude oil materials will become increasingly

prominent, while the carbon emission intensity of chemical-type refineries is higher than

that of fuel-type refineries. The project uses green hydrogen to replace some of the hydrogen

used in refining, establishing a low-carbon development model for the petrochemical

industry, and the experience can be promoted worldwide. 2. Reduce fossil energy

dependence. The hydrogen used in European refineries for refining is mainly produced

by steam reforming of natural gas, which is an important energy source for maintaining

the operation of refineries. In the context of the energy crisis in Europe, exploring the

development model of “green hydrogen + refining” will help reduce the dependence of the

refining industry on natural gas, thus ensuring energy security.

Figure 1 Hydrogen Plant of Shell Refhyne Project in Germany

087

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Construction Material Industry

3

The construction material industry is a high energy-consuming industry, mainly using coal. The

global production of construction materials has entered a platform stage. The cement production

in China has ranked first in the world for more than ten consecutive years, and the annual

cement production accounts for more than 50% of the global total. The Asia-Pacific region is the

main production area of cement. With the continuous growth of the global population and the

improvement of the rate of urbanization, the global demand for cement will remain at a high level,

driven by both infrastructure construction and real estate. The construction material industry is

facing challenges such as locked high-carbon industrial path, insufficient low-carbon industrial

competitiveness and uneven development level. We should focus on promoting the electricity

replacement in the construction material industry, and accelerate the transition of the energy

consumption structure based on fossil fuels and the construction material production system

centered on kilns.

Promote electricity replacement.

The application of electric heating furnaces should be

promoted in the cement, glass and ceramic production. With the rapid decline in the cost of clean

energy power generation, electric heating furnaces will have the cost and cleanliness advantages.

Improve the economy of new technologies and equipment.

The structural design, technology

research and development and refractory materials of electric heating furnaces should be further

broken through to improve the energy efficiency of equipment, accelerate the improvement of

the economy of electric heating furnaces for cement and glass production and break through the

technical bottlenecks of electric heating furnaces for ceramic production to realize the commercial

Establish an electricity-based

application of large-capacity electric heating furnaces.

production system.

The electric heating furnace demonstration project in the construction

material industry should be promoted, the cost of electric heating furnaces and other equipment

should be further reduced through large-scale development, a fossil fuel kiln phase-out schedule

should be established, and high-energy-consuming and high-emission fossil fuel calcination

equipment should be gradually phased out to establish an electricity-centered construction

material production system.

Development path of electricity replacement.

carbon emissions peak stage,

the

In the

electricity consumption and electrification rate will gradually increase. By 2030, the electricity

consumption in the construction material industry will reach 110 Mtce, and the electrification rate

carbon neutral stage,

will reach 25%. In the

the electric heating furnaces will be popularized and

applied, and the electrification rate will be rapidly increased. By 2050, the electricity consumption

will reach 120 Mtce, and the electrification rate will reach 34%.

4.4.2 Transportation Sector

Road

1

The road transportation has become a widely used mode of transportation in various countries.

It is also the dominant source of energy consumption and emissions in the transportation sector.

The oil consumption accounts for more than 90% in global road transportation, dominating the

energy consumption of road transportation. There is great potential for the development of road

transportation. The road transportation is facing challenges such as the continuous growth of

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

transportation demand and vehicle quantity, the lock-in effect of high energy consumption and

high emissions, and the necessity of technical performance improvement of new energy vehicles.

It is necessary to accelerate the transition of fuel-based energy structure and take measures,

for example, developing electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to achieve low-carbon

technology energy transition, transportation efficiency improvement and transportation structure

change and promote the development pattern of a green intelligent road transportation.

Develop electric vehicles.

In the past decade, great progress has been made in core

technologies, economy, ownership and charging infrastructure of the electric vehicles. In the

future, with the further development of lithium-ion battery technologies and breakthroughs in

new battery technologies such as lithium metal solid-state batteries and graphene solid-state

Strengthen the

batteries, the electric vehicles will be driven into a new stage of development.

construction of charging infrastructure network.

In accordance with the overall planning of the

global, continental and national highway network, an intelligent efficient interconnected charging

facility network with reasonable layout and extensive coverage will be built to meet the charging

Promote intelligent interaction between electric vehicles and the

needs of electric vehicles.

grid.

As the electric vehicle volume increases, charging demand is not only an important new

load of the power system, but also a flexible energy storage resource with adjustment ability.

The vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology can integrate electric vehicles to become a demand-side

response resource to solve the operational challenges brought by large-scale grid-connected

charging and improve the renewable energy generated power receiving ability of the power

system.

Development path of electric vehicles.

carbon emissions peak stage,

the electric

In the

vehicle should be promoted for rapid development, and the electricity consumption and

electrification rate should be improved rapidly. By 2030, the electricity consumption in the global

road transportation will reach 300 Mtce, and the electrification rate will increase from 0.3% to 8%.

carbon neutral stage,

In the

electricity will replace oil as the main object of energy consumption.

The penetration rate of the electric vehicle market will be further increased, with all new passenger

cars being electric vehicles and gradually replacing the existing internal combustion engine

vehicles, further increasing the electrification rate. By 2050, the electricity consumption will be

increased to 1.3 gigatonnes of standard coal equivalent (Gtce), and the electrification rate to 52%.

Column 4.8

Shenzhen Vehicle-to-Grid Interactive Operation

Management Platform

The Shenzhen Vehicle-to-Grid Interactive Operation Management Platform is a typical

project developed by China Southern Power Grid Company Limited that utilizes scaled

vehicle-to-grid (V2G) key technology to explore sustainable interactive scenarios and

business models, and form a multi-party participation, mutually beneficial vehicle-grid

interaction ecosystem.

The project adopts a market-oriented multi-scenario platform design that supports

complicated user interaction and management. It provides a series of “cloud” V2G

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

solutions, and innovates and develops “cloud-vehicle-pile” combined electric vehicle

condition monitoring, evaluation, early warning and disposal technologies. As of March

2023, a total of 121 charging stations had been installed, with over 7500 connected

devices, including more than 3,000 V2G interactive charging piles. The installed capacity is

approximately 158 MW, with a maximum power adjustment of 71 MW.

Main achievements of the project are as follows: Firstly, promote the sustainable

development of V2G. In the past two years, there have been 35 participations in vehicle-

grid interactions, with a cumulative response adjustment volume of 312 MWh, exploring

a new sustainable development path for deep interaction between power supply and

demand in the new power system. By 2030, the adjustable capacity of vehicle-grid

interaction is expected to exceed 1 GW. Secondly, promote the green transition of

transportation energy. By connecting with the power market, the project timely and

appropriately carries out vehicle-grid interaction, and plays a role in peak shaving, load

balancing, and congestion relief, supporting the real-time power balance and the safe,

economical, and reliable power supply of the new power system, and providing a good

environment for the green transformation of transportation energy. Thirdly, drive the

development of emerging industries. The project has built a new energy service format that

enables flexible and efficient interaction between EV users and the power grid, and has

opened up the market for smart devices such as smart charging piles and station smart

terminals, as well as related cloud services and app markets, driving the development of

upstream and downstream industries.

Figure 1 First V2G Bidirectional Interaction Demonstration Project in the

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

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Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Develop hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have not yet been promoted

on a large scale due to economic constraints. However, considering the long ranges and

convenient fueling, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have great potential for development in many

fields such as long-distance heavy-duty cargo transportation and public transportation, and will

become an important means of de-carbonization in the transportation sector. In the future, with

the cost reduction of clean energy power generation, the cost of water-electrolytic hydrogen

production is expected to continue to reduce, and the supporting infrastructure will be gradually

improved, so the large-scale industrial production of fuel cells will promote the significant cost

Tackle core technologies of hydrogen fuel cells.

reduction of hydrogen fuel cells.

Research,

development and innovation of key components such as stacks, membrane electrodes and

proton exchange membranes, related basic materials and vehicle core technologies should be

conducted to provide strong scientific and technological support for the development of fuel

Promote construction of hydrogen fueling infrastructure network.

cells.

Sufficient convenient

hydrogen stations with reasonable distribution should be built. For the construction and layout of

hydrogen stations, the upstream hydrogen supply capacity, storage and transportation capacity

and downstream vehicle needs should be taken into account to make a coordinated development

situation of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial chains, and enhance the market

competitiveness of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Development path of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

carbon emissions peak stage,

In the

hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be gradually promoted. By 2030, the global hydrogen consumption

in the transportation sector will be about 60 Mtce, accounting for 3% of the total energy

carbon neutral stage,

consumption. In the

the large-scale development of hydrogen fuel cell

vehicles will be achieved. With technological progress, industrial development and cost reduction,

hydrogen energy will develop rapidly. By 2035, the purchase cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

will be equivalent to that of electric vehicles. By 2050, the global hydrogen consumption in the

transportation sector will rapidly increase to 250 Mtce, accounting for 10% of energy consumption

of road transportation.

Shipping and Aviation

2

In the shipping and aviation transportation, the energy source is monotonous, almost entirely

oil. Global shipping dominates the energy consumption of the shipping transportation, with

a stable proportion; the energy consumption of aviation transportation keeps growing, and

global aviation gradually dominates the energy consumption of the aviation transportation. In

the context of economic globalization, international trade will continue to grow, promoting the

further development of shipping and aviation transportation. It is estimated that in 2050, the

global shipping will reach 190 trillion tonne-kilometres, and the global aviation will reach 750

billion tonne-kilometres. The shipping and aviation transportation are facing challenges such as

technological innovation, government management and global collaboration. It is necessary to

accelerate the transition of the oil-based energy structure and promote hydrogen replacement

to gradually form a development pattern of low-energy consumption low-emission shipping and

aviation transportation.

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In terms of shipping,

the replacement of traditional fuels with clean energy should be

accelerated. Clean alternative energy suitable for shipping should be greatly developed, a global

industrial chain from raw material production to fuel production should be cultivated, and new

ships driven by high-energy density batteries should be researched and developed as a powerful

supplement to short-and medium-distance water transportation; the development of port and

ship shore power should be promoted, port power facilities should be improved continuously,

a smart, safe and efficient port power service platform should be established, and the coverage

of port power facilities should be gradually expanded to promote “electricity replacement of oil”

In terms of aviation,

as a global shipping initiative.

the research, development and application

of hydrogen-powered and battery-powered aircrafts should be accelerated. The transition and

upgrading of the power systems of aircrafts should be intensified, the joint efforts of the industry,

universities and research should be pooled, the research and development of hydrogen fuel cells

and engines suitable for aviation should be accelerated, and relevant achievements should be

gradually demonstrated and applied on small aircrafts and short-distance aircrafts. The operation

efficiency of airports should be improved, and intelligent transition of airport control systems

should be implemented to promote the application of airport taxiing electric energy and hydrogen

replacement technology.

carbon emissions peak stage,

In the

popularity of hydrogen energy in the shipping is limited. By 2030, the hydrogen consumption

carbon neutral stage,

due to the influence of technologies and economy, the

in the shipping and aviation transportation will be about 60 Mtce. In the

hydrogen energy will develop rapidly on a large scale in the shipping. By 2050, the hydrogen

consumption in the shipping and aviation transportation will increase to 200 Mtce.

4.4.3 Building Sector

With the development of economy and society, the continuous growth of population and the rapid

advancement of urbanization in developing countries, the building sector has witnessed rapid

increase of energy consumption, and become the second largest energy consumption sector

in the world. The development of emerging economies and continuous growth of population

will drive the continuous growth of building area and energy consumption. The building sector

faces a series of challenges including low electrification, large building stock and lagged green

building development. Considering this, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of lifestyles

and energy-using habits of residents; promote electricity replacement in heating, cooking and

domestic hot water supply; widely apply intelligent energy-saving household electrical appliance;

promote building energy-saving renovation and green building; and improve energy efficiency

in building sector, aiming to meet the residents living needs in a clean, green, economical and

efficient way.

092

4

Coordinated Development between Clean Energy and Fossil Energy to Promote Inclusive Transition

Promote the electricity replacement.

The electrification technologies for heating, cooking,

domestic hot water supply and other areas in building sector have become more and more

mature, and the electricity cost continues to decline, laying a good foundation for comprehensive

electrification. In terms of heating: Heat pump drives the working medium by electric energy for

thermodynamic cycle, and with an energy efficiency ratio up to 200%, it has such outstanding

advantages as high energy efficiency ratio and zero CO₂emission. In terms of cooking, electric

hot pot, electric oven, induction cooker and other electric cookers are mature in technology,

convenient to use, rich in functions, clean and less CO₂emitted. In terms of domestic hot water

supply, the gas water heater, electric water heater and solar water heater are mainly applied

Promote heating by clean energy as the

currently, with a electrification rate of about 20%.

focus.

In areas rich in clean energy, guide the use of surplus clean electricity in the trough period

for energy storage and heating, and promote the use of geothermal energy, biomass, biogas,

solar energy and wind energy to provide thermal services for residential and public buildings.

In countries where central heating is the mainstay, promote the application of gas boilers and

electric boilers with higher efficiency, and in countries where distributed heating is the mainstay,

Continuously improve the technical level

promote clean energy heating and electric heating.

and economy of electrical equipment,

promote the innovation of technology and equipment of

high-power and high-performance electric heaters, electric cookers and electric water heaters,

so as to address key technologies affecting the thermal efficiency and stability of equipment, and

cater for the energy demand of residents in different scenes of life.

In the carbon emissions peak stage,

increase the electricity consumption and electrification rate

rapidly. Specifically, increase the electricity consumption in building sector to 2.4 Gtce, and the

In the carbon neutrality stage,

electrification rate from 33% to 44% by 2030.

further increase

the electrification rate, and develop electricity into the most important energy source. Specifically,

increase the electricity consumption in building sector to 3.4 Gtce, and the electrification rate to

68% by 2050.

093

Energy-Industry

Coordination for

Just Transition

5

Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition

The linchpin to just energy transition is the coordination between energy and

industry, including replacing old industries with new ones, accelerating the

cultivation of emerging industries, transforming fossil fuel industries, developing

new energy industries, optimizing and upgrading industries in the whole society,

ensuring fair social employment, leveraging the link role of interconnected power

grids, coordinating development of regions and countries, reducing energy costs,

improving access to energy, increasing decent jobs in clean energy industries, and

promoting just social transition.

5.1 Development of Emerging Industries

The coordinated transition of energy and industry will accelerate the reform of energy and power

infrastructure, thus allowing emerging industries to flourish. With the accelerated building of

widely interconnected, highly intelligent, open and interactive energy interconnections with multi-

energy integration, the modes of energy production, allocation and consumption are changing.

The cross-field coordination and integration of energy, transportation, communication and other

network infrastructure will reshape the development modes of related manufacturing and service

industries and provide new boosters for economic growth.

5.1.1 Flourishing Development of New Energy Industry

Flourishing industries related to new energy equipment manufacturing releases the

growth potential and expands the development space of global industry chains.

As a

clean energy-dominated, electricity-centered, interconnected and multi-energy integrated

modern energy system takes shape, the new energy and equipment manufacturing industry

chains will accelerate their iterative development driven by technological progress and

industrial policies, forming a new pattern of global industrial division of labor. The global

PV

market size of the

industry chain was about USD 220 billion in 2022 and is expected

to reach USD 700 billion by 2030^A. The integrated application of PV and other industries

diversifies to leverage local advantages and characteristics and provide new inclusive

and sustainable industrial development practices with green power as the core, such as

agriculture-PV complementation, fishery-PV complementation, PV desertification control,

clean heating and other low-carbon ecological development models. The market size of the

wind power

industry chain exceeded USD 80 billion in 2022 and is expected to exceed USD

170 billion by 2030^B. The offshore wind power will be more cost-effective and deep-sea wind

power will be developed. The market size is expected to reach USD 80 billion by 2030^C. The

energy storage

global installed capacity of

is growing, and various business models are

maturing. With technological progress and continuous improvement of global market, price

Source: https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/solar-photovoltaic-market.

Source: https://www.precedenceresearch.com/wind-energy-market.

A

B

C

Source: https://www.vantagemarketresearch.com/industry-report/offshore-wind-energy-market-1569.

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

and operation mechanisms, energy storage will be more cost-effective, and business models

will diversify and mature. From 2022 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate of the global

energy storage market is expected to reach 23%^A. Compared with the traditional energy

industry chain, the industry chain of new energy equipment manufacturing such as wind

power, PV, UHV power transmission, energy storage and hydrogen has a long chain, large

scale and wide coverage, and offers plenty of jobs. It will become a new engine for regional

economic growth and high-quality industrial development. In 2022, the number of employees

in the renewable energy sector worldwide reached 13.7 million, including 4.3 million in PV and

1.3 million in wind power, an increase of 600,000 and 100,000 respectively over the previous

year^B.

Energy transition will drive the transformation and development of transportation

equipment and infrastructure such as NEVs and green and intelligent ships, leading

a new round of transportation electrification.

In 2022, the global sales volume of NEVs

exceeded 10 million, with an average compound annual growth rate of 54% from 2016 to

2022. The sales volume in China, Europe and North America reached 5.9 million, 2.6 million

and 1.1 million respectively. The global inventory of passenger electric vehicles reached

26 million, with a market size of nearly USD 400 billion. It is estimated that the market size

will exceed USD 1 trillion by 2030. By 2050, the global inventory of NEVs will rise to 1.6

The NEV industry will shape a brand-new manufacturing

billion, accounting for 75%C.

industry chain.

The manufacturing of NEVs involves the “three electric systems” (battery,

electric motor and electronic control) in the midstream as well as positive and negative

materials, separators and electrolytes in the upstream. A new industrial division pattern will

take shape globally, which will drive the extraction of emerging mineral resources such as

lithium, cobalt and nickel in the upstream and the R&D of new materials and processes.

Africa, Central and South America and other regions rich in mineral resources will embrace

great development opportunities through the layout of relevant links in the upstream of the

charging piles

industry chain. More intelligent

will be installed and promoted worldwide. The

average annual growth rate of global charging infrastructure will reach nearly 30% by 2030^D.

The scale growth and intelligence of charging infrastructure will underpin the development

foundation for business models such as V2G, which is predicted to reach USD 15 billion

The green and intelligent ship industry will develop rapidly.

by 2027.

In the context of

energy transition, with the introduction of shipping decarbonization rules of the International

Maritime Organization (IMO) and green shipping policies of various countries, global R&D

efforts and investment are redoubled in port shore power, ship zero-carbon fuel, land-based

infrastructure, etc. It is estimated that the global market size of electric ships will rise from the

current USD 5 billion to more than USD 10 billion by 2030.

Source: https://about.bnef.com/blog/1h-2023-energy-storage-market-outlook/.

A

B

C

D

Source: IRENA, Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2023, 2023.

Source: GEIDCO, The Road to Global Carbon Neutrality, Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2021.

Source: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/real-time-electricity-tracker? gclid=Cj0KCQjwrMKm

BhCJARIsAHuEAPQbgjcsev-YHoQHCfyMf9k_0Rfv0tJzQnQ0ZKe5YmkHgENzi_9htigaAtWjEALw_wcB.

096

5

Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition

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Figure 5.1 Global Sales of NEVs, 2015—2022^A

5.1.2 Accelerated Integration of Energy and Information Industry

The accelerated integration of energy revolution and digital revolution adds new business

forms to energy interconnections.

Evolving new-generation information technologies and

intelligent technologies such as big data, cloud computing, IoT, blockchain and AI are applied in

energy and power system transition. This has brought forth new technologies and equipment in

the fields of new energy development, multi-energy conversion, advanced energy storage and

energy system control. It has also spawned new businesses, new forms and new models such

as comprehensive energy services, energy e-commerce, energy and power big data and virtual

power plants. More new market entities have emerged to constitute a new energy interconnection

ecosystem.

Column 5.1

SGCC New Energy Cloud Platform

The SGCC New Energy Cloud Platform is a comprehensive new energy service platform

invested and constructed by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC). It provides one-

stop services for new energy planning and construction, grid-connected consumption,

transaction settlement, etc. The platform is designed with 15 sub-platforms, including

power supply enterprises, power grid services, electricity customers, energy storage

services and big data services, covering all links of power-grid- load-storage. It also

involves four application service scenarios: optimal allocation of new energy, carbon

neutrality support services, technological innovation of new power systems, and new

energy industrial internet.

Source: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev-data-explorer? KcUQAvD_BwE.

A

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

The platform has been deployed and applied in 27 provincial grid enterprises within the

SGCC operation area. It provides operation monitoring and information consulting services

for more than 4.4 million new energy stations with an installed capacity of 700 GW, serving

nearly 15,000 upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain.

Its innovations include: First, it is a one-stop platform that serves the development of new

energy in an all-round way and provides whole-process, whole-link and full-scenario data

and professional services for the development and consumption of new energy. Second, it

is a supporting platform that serves green development and innovates new power systems,

with an all-power-source base, a flexible regulation capability base, and an adjustable load

resource base. Third, it applies various innovative technologies to ensure the safe and

efficient operation of systems and equipment.

Figure 1 Resource Map Function of SGCC New Energy Cloud Platform

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Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition

The accelerated construction of smart grids promotes the transition and reform of power

systems.

As the share of clean energy in primary energy continues to increase, power and

energy balance as well as power regulation and management will face new challenges. The smart

grid integrates cutting-edge technologies such as digital technology and information technology

into power generation, transmission, transformation, distribution and consumption, supporting

power

the safe, efficient and stable operation of the power system. For example, on the

generation side,

the smart grid provides generated power prediction and intelligent operation

and maintenance services of power generation equipment through electric power communication

power transmission and distribution side,

technology and AI technology. On the

the smart grid

enables intelligent dispatching and operation of grid, intelligent patrol inspection of transmission

lines, intelligent operation and inspection of substations and converter stations, intelligent

power load side,

operation and maintenance of distribution, etc. On the

the smart grid enables

demand management, forecasting and optimization to support decision-making in electricity

market transactions. The construction of smart grids will increase investment in new energy and

new digital infrastructure worldwide. In 2022, the global market size of smart grids came to about

USD 36 billion and is expected to exceed USD 100 billion by 2030^A.

5.1.3 Rapid Growth of Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Industry

Energy transition will continuously expand the market of energy conservation and

environmental protection industry.

Energy conservation and environmental protection industry

usually includes energy conservation, environmental protection and resource recycling, involving

R&D, production, technology and service of energy conservation and environmental protection

equipment, such as resource recycling equipment and engineering, industrial energy conservation,

and building energy conservation services. It blends with industrial production and urban life

services. With a long industry chain and a wide coverage, it offers plenty of jobs as a major engine

The building energy conservation market has expanded steadily.

for economic growth.

Green buildings with ultra-low energy consumption are a priority for the development of energy

conservation and environmental protection industry. The USA and Germany plan to achieve net

zero energy consumption in all buildings by 2050, while Japan has developed a policy roadmap

for building energy conservation from baseline buildings, ultra-low energy consumption, near-

zero energy consumption to zero energy consumption by 2030. The investment scale of building

energy conservation reached USD 210 billion in 2022 and is expected to maintain an average

annual growth rate of more than 5% in the next five years. The International Energy Agency (IEA)

estimates that for every million dollars invested in energy-efficient retrofits or energy efficiency

improvement of buildings, 9-30 manufacturing and construction jobs can be created to energize

The industrial energy conservation and environmental protection

local industrial value chains.

services are applied in a wider range and at a larger scale.

As AI and big data boost the

industrial energy conservation, intelligent energy emerges to promote the application of industrial

electricity-saving and waste heat utilization equipment. The industrial energy conservation service

market will maintain an average annual growth rate of 4% in the next five years, and the market

size is expected to reach USD 12 billion by 2028^B.

Source: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/smart-grid-market-1110.

Source: https://www.businessresearchinsights.com/market-reports/industrial-energy-efficiency-services-

market-108944.

A

B

099

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

5.2 Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries

The coordinated development of energy and industry will accelerate the green upgrading of the

global industrial system and bring new development opportunities to global green and sustainable

industries. The in-depth replacement and application of green electricity and green hydrogen in

the traditional high-energy-consuming metallurgical industry and chemical industry will accelerate

the green transformation of the industrial system. Fossil fuel-rich areas are expected to develop

in a more resilient and green way through the collaborative transformation of energy and industry.

The construction of green industrial parks will strongly support the coordinated development.

5.2.1 Transformation and Upgrading of High-Energy-Consuming Industries

The collaborative, high-quality and green transformation of high-energy-consuming

industries and energy systems will promote the inclusive and sustainable transformation

of industrial systems.

Traditional high-energy-consuming industries such as steel, non-ferrous

metals, construction materials and petrochemical industry are all pillar raw material industries,

accounting for 53% of global industrial energy consumption and 77% of industrial carbon

emissions. The global energy transition raises new requirements and indicates new directions for

the transformation and upgrading of traditional high-energy-consuming industries in industrialized

countries. Also, building a green power-centered and multi-energy complementary energy system

provides new opportunities for green and sustainable industrialization of countries at different

development stages. The coordinated transformation and development of high-energy-consuming

industries and energy systems will accelerate the reform of fuel, raw materials and production

modes in the industrial system.

The steel industry will accelerate the construction of an energy consumption system

with electric-centric approach and electricity-hydrogen-biomass energy coordination

and complementation.

To meet the development needs of urbanization and industrialization,

the steel production capacity of emerging economies in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa

will gradually increase in the medium and long term to become a main growth pole. With the

gradual replacement and elimination of outdated production capacity and the increase of scrap

steel storage in industrial powers, the input structure and production mode will shift from a coal-

based mode to new processes and techniques dominated by green electricity and hydrogen. It

is estimated that the scale of electric furnace steelmaking and hydrogen-based steelmaking will

reach 570 million tonnes and 150 million tonnes respectively in 2030, and increase to 1 billion

tonnes and 280 million tonnes respectively in 2050.

The non-ferrous metal smelting industry will adopt clean electricity, further improve the

level of electrification and resource recycling rate, and realize “green power mining +

smelting”.

The focus of smelting capacity will generally shift to countries and regions rich in

renewable energy, and large-scale and efficient new equipment and processes will be rapidly

applied. Outdated capacity will be gradually eliminated, and the level of electrification, digitization

and integration will be continuously improved, ensuring whole-process low-carbon development

of mining, smelting, production, processing and recycling. It is estimated that by 2060, the energy

consumption per unit product in the non-ferrous metal industry will decrease by nearly 40%

compared with 2020. The renewable electricity is expected to account for 90% in the electrolytic

aluminum industry.

100

5

Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition

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Figure 5.2 Forecast of Production Process Structure of Global Steel Industry

Column 5.2

Interconnected Development Model of Electricity,

Mining, Metallurgy, Manufacturing and Trade

Under the interconnected development model of electricity, mining, metallurgy,

manufacturing and trade, regional clean energy and mineral resources are leveraged to

build an industry chain for coordinated development of electricity, mining, metallurgy,

manufacturing and trade. The model provides a new scheme for coordinated and

sustainable economic and social development through the virtuous cycle of “investment-

development-production-export-reinvestment”. It is suitable for countries and regions with

rich renewable energy and mineral resources and in the initial stage of industrialization.

Africa is rich in clean energy resources, with theoretical potential of hydroenergy,

solar energy and wind energy accounting for 12%, 40% and 32% of the world’s total

respectively. Africa is also rich in mineral resources. Among them, gold, phosphate

and cobalt reserves account for more than 50% of the world’s total. Iron, copper, zinc

and aluminum reserves account for more than 20% of the world’s total. Manganese

ore reserves account for about 83% of the world’s total. Building African Energy

Interconnection and interconnecting the development of electricity, mining, metallurgy,

manufacturing and trade provide a solution to Africa’s power shortage. This solution

supports the construction and production of mines, metallurgical bases and industrial parks

with sufficient clean electricity, shifts the focus of trade exports from primary products to

high value-added products, and comprehensively improves the scale, quality and effects of

economic development in Africa.

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Based on the industrial base and resource endowment of each region, Africa can build

five regional economic circles: Gulf of Guinea, eastern Africa, Congo River, southern Africa

and Mediterranean Coast. Africa can build a fast, convenient and safe trade channel

between countries and regions, and provide more opportunities in industrial cultivation,

market expansion and economic development for various countries to rise together.

Within each economic circle, each region can build closely coordinated and distinctive

industrial development belts, continuously improve the basic industrial capacity, promote

the application of green processes, technologies and equipment, build modern industrial

central cities, establish globally competitive raw material bases as well as clusters of

metallurgical industry, processing and manufacturing, and develop strong growth poles.

Relying on leading enterprises and major projects with high industrial correlation and strong

driving force, Africa can build mining and metallurgical processing demonstration industrial

parks and turn industrial parks into cluster areas for advantageous industries, pilot areas

for innovative development and demonstration areas for attracting investment.

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5.2.2 Green Transition of Chemical Industry Driven by Green Hydrogen

The in-depth and large-scale application of green hydrogen in various ﬁelds deepens all-

round decarbonization.

As production, storage and transportation costs decrease and relevant

technologies mature, green hydrogen will be applied on a large scale in industry, transportation,

building and power generation. The current green hydrogen projects in operation are mostly at

10 MW and 100 MW levels. Considering the anticipated huge demand for hydrogen and scale

economies, many countries have planned GW-scale green hydrogen projects, as shown in Table

5.1. Studies show that the global market size of green hydrogen power generation will double to

USD 250 billion by 2030 and reach USD 1 trillion by 2050^A. The market size of hydrogen energy

and fuel cells will reach RMB 850 billion. Industries such as aviation, navigation, high-quality

industrial heat, chemical industry, and metallurgy cannot directly decarbonize with electricity, but

can indirectly electrify through hydrogen production based on clean electricity. It is estimated

by 2050,

that

the global demand for green hydrogen will amount to 360 million tonnes. The

demand for green hydrogen-based power generation and chemical industry will grow rapidly.

Green hydrogen will be applied on a large scale, with end-use hydrogen accounting for about

10% of energy consumption. Hydrogen energy will be optimally and extensively allocated across

continents and regions, with a transmission scale of about 50 million tonnes. North Africa and

West Asia transmit about 17.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually by pipelines and sea.

Oceania transmits about 13.3 million tonnes of liquid hydrogen or hydrogen compounds by sea.

South America delivers about 5.5 million tonnes to North America and about 8.1 million tonnes to

East Asia by sea.

Table 5.1　Global GW-Scale Green Hydrogen Projects Under Planning

Installed

capacity (GW)

Hydrogen

output (Mt/a) completion

Year of

Project

Location

Note

Supplied by 95 GW solar

power, for hydrogen supply

within Europe

HyDeal

Ambition

Western

Europe

67

20

3.6

-

2030

Supplied by 30 GW wind and

solar power, for hydrogen

supply to green steel and other

fields

AMAN

Power2X

Northern

Mauritania

-

Supplied by 16 GW onshore

wind power and 10 GW solar

power, for hydrogen export to

Asian countries

Asian

Renewable Energy

Hub

Western

Australia

14

10

1.75

2028

2040

Supplied by offshore wind

power, for hydrogen supply

to heavy industries in the

Netherlands and Germany, at

the feasibility study stage and

expected to reach 1 GW by

2027

Northern

Netherlands

North H₂

1

Source: Goldman Sachs, Carbonomics-the clean hydrogen revolution, 2022.

A

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

continued

Installed

capacity (GW)

Hydrogen

output (Mt/a) completion

Year of

Project

Location

Note

Supplied by offshore wind

power, in the early construction

stage, expected to reach 30

MW by 2025

Helgoland,

Germany

AquaVentus

10

1

2035

2021

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Hydrogen-Storage

Integration Project

of Beijing Jingneng

Power in Inner

Ejin Banner,

Inner

Mongolia

5

0.5

Under construction

Mongolia

Supplied by onshore wind

power and solar power, for

hydrogen export

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Fuels

Northwestern

Saudi Arabia

4

0.24

0.6

-

Supplied by wind and solar

power, announced in 2021,

for hydrogen export

Northeastern

Brazil

Base One

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3.4

2025

Supplied by solar power, for

hydrogen supply to green

fertilizer production and

hydrogen export, announced

i n 2 0 2 0 , i n t h e e a r l y

construction stage

1.6

1.5

Chile

0.12

0.25

2030

2029

Supplied by solar power,

mainly for hydrogen supply

to fuel cell power generation,

heating and heavy industries

Northern

Greece

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The chemical industry will shift to an electricity-hydrogen coordinated production system

with in-depth application of green electricity, green hydrogen and biomass energy.

It is

estimated that by 2060, the global consumption of three energy-intensive chemical products:

methanol, ethylene and synthetic ammonia will increase by 75%, 70% and 45% respectively.

With the accelerated evolution of the chemical production system featuring hydrogen-electricity

synergy, electric heating and electrochemical processes and equipment are expected to be

rapidly applied on a large scale in 2030 to improve the electrification rate and comprehensive

energy efficiency of process flows. Green hydrogen preparation and CCUS see reducing technical

costs, and electrically produced raw materials celebrate improving cost-effectiveness. As a result,

large-scale applications will be achieved first in China, as well as in European and American

countries between 2030 and 2040. By 2050, the scale of green ammonia and green methanol is

expected to reach 80 million tonnes and 60 million tonnes respectively.

Column 5.3

Green Power Supports the Low-Carbon Transition of

the Traditional Chemical Industry

Germany’s chemical behemoth BASF is a model of low-carbon transition in the chemical

industry. Upholding the concept of sustainable development, it proposed to reduce CO₂

emissions by 25% compared with 2018 by 2030 and achieve medium-term and long-term

goals of carbon neutrality by 2050.

BASF advocates electricity replacement in chemical production, gradually replacing high-

carbon-emitting fossil fuels with electricity. In September 2022, BASF, SABIC, and Linde

started the construction of the world’s first demonstration plant for large-scale electrically

heated steam cracker furnaces. The new technology can potentially save at least 90% of

the CO₂emissions emitted by conventional steam crackers.

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chem.vogel.com.cn/c1154857.shtml.

A

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

BASF uses renewable energy such as PV and wind power to power chemical production.

In Europe,

BASF has partnered with RWE to build an offshore wind farm with a capacity

of 2 GW to provide the Ludwigshafen chemical site with green electricity and enable CO₂-

In China,

free production of hydrogen.

PV power stations in BASF Shanghai Pudong

Innovation Park and BASF Caojing site can reduce CO₂emissions by more than 1,600

tonnes per year. BASF has secured 100% renewable electricity for its first plants at the

Zhanjiang Verbund site with the ambitious goal of powering the site with 100% renewable

electricity by 2025. In July 2023, BASF and Mingyang Group sealed an agreement to jointly

construct and operate an offshore wind farm with a total installed capacity of 500 MW in

Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province to supply renewable electricity to BASF Zhanjiang

Verbund site.

5.2.3 Regional Industrial Transformation and Upgrading

Clean Transition in Areas Rich in Fossil Fuels

1

The energy transition will promote areas rich in fossil fuels to shift to a more resilient

green development model.

Against the backdrop of accelerating global energy transition,

countries and regions supported by the consumption and export of traditional fossil fuels such

as petroleum, coal, and natural gas will actively promote diversified economic development

through macro-strategy and industrial policy adjustment relying on energy transition. The energy

interconnection construction will provide important opportunities for regional energy transition and

industrial transformation.

West Asian countries vigorously develop new energy and actively promote industrial

diversification.

Taking advantage of their competitive advantages in the fossil fuel supply

chain, West Asian countries have linked new energy development brought about by energy

transition with economic and industrial diversification strategies, gradually intensified

efforts in industrialization, informatization, and localization, formulated medium- and long-

term national economic development strategies, and stepped up efforts to realize short-

and long-term goals. For example, Saudi Arabia launched the Saudi Vision 2030 and the

United Arab Emirates the UAE Centennial 2071 Plan and the UAE Strategy for the Fourth

Industrial Revolution. West Asian countries are encouraging the deployment of renewable

energy and the electrification of urban and cross-regional transportation. According to

data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the installed capacity of

renewable energy in West Asia increased by 12.8% year on year in 2022, the largest growth

rate among all regions. West Asian countries are rich in renewable energy resources, with

a theoretical potential of about 12,720 PWh/year for photovoltaic power generation and

83 PWh/year for wind energy resources. Among them, the six member states of the GCC

have a good interconnection foundation and basically shaped interconnected power grids,

which can provide strong support for further development of regional clean energy, power

interconnection and outbound transmission, improvement of regional power supply reliability,

and medium- and long-term energy transition and industrial transformation.

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Table 5.2 Economic and Industrial Development Policies of Major Countries in West Asia

Country

Strategy

Key Content

Develop manufacturing, tourism, and information industries and infrastructure;

establish special economic zones.

Saudi Arabia Saudi Vision 2030

Build a resilient government for the well-being of the people and spread

positive energy; empowered by high technology, nurture a new generation

of young people who are ready to accept advanced technologies and

experience; develop a diversified economic structure based on knowledge;

UAE Centennial

2071 Plan

UAE

UAE Strategy

for the Fourth

Highlight key areas including innovative education, medical tourism, robotics in

healthcare, water and food security and digital economy; improve the level of the

Industrial Revolution national defense industry through the development of national industries.

Develop a diversified economy with a focus on finance, trade, tourism,

Kuwait

Qatar

Vision 2035

exhibition and convention, and other industries while boosting petroleum and

petrochemical industries.

Manage the extraction of exhaustible resources; convert abundant hydrocarbon

resources into financial wealth; invest in infrastructure and workforce quality

improvement. Accelerate economic diversification; develop Qatar into a regional

hub of knowledge and high-value-added industries and services activities.

National Vision

2030

Green Industrial Parks Help Countries Achieve Low-Carbon Transformation of

Industries

2

Green industrial parks are the key carrier to achieving high-quality coordinated

development of energy and industries.

Industrial parks are characterized by the concentration

of population, industries, and energy and resource consumption. As the parks usually involve

electricity, industry, logistics, infrastructure, and other high-value-added and high-emission

industrial sectors, their output, energy consumption, and carbon emissions account for a relatively

high proportion. For example, by 2022, China had nearly 20,000 industrial parks. The growth rate

of the contribution of the park economy to the national economy exceeded 30%. Among them,

there were more than 2,500 industrial parks that contributed over 50% to the national industrial

output value. Furthermore, their emissions accounted for over 30% of the overall social emissions.

As a platform for regional economic development, the green and low-carbon development of

such parks is of great significance to energy transition and industrial transformation and upgrading

and is also a key target for greenhouse gas control and emission reduction.

Column 5.4

Jiangsu Yining Energy Micro-Carbon Smart Energy Science

and Technology Innovation Industrial Park

Jiangsu Yining Energy Micro-carbon Smart Energy Science and Technology Innovation

Industrial Park is a park-level successful case of integrating generation, grid, load, and

storage with new energy as the main body. It makes full use of architectural landscape

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

and wind and solar resources to build multi-form PV and wind power generation

systems, forming a high-proportion new energy supply system of “self-generation and

self-consumption, surplus electricity on the grid”, and collecting and analyzing carbon

production factors in the park through digital technology to realize “visible, controllable, and

manageable” carbon assets.

The proportion of clean energy in the park exceeds 85%, and an AC/DC distribution

network has been built to improve the local consumption capacity of new energy such as

PV and wind power through prefabricated cabin energy storage and V2G charging piles.

Lead carbon batteries have been deployed in the building to store new energy for power

generation and supply power to loads of low voltage level. The ground source heat pump

and air source heat pump are combined with the cold and heat storage system to reduce

the cooling and heating energy consumption of the park. The park management is highly

digital, applying the latest 5G and WiFi6 technologies in all networks and smart terminals

in the park to realize interconnection and real-time sensing of people, vehicles, things,

energy, and carbon emissions. Based on the analysis of new technologies such as big

data and AI, the integrated operation center realizes visible, manageable, and controllable

park management to support agile business decision-making and innovation. The park has

made the whole-process tracking and management of carbon emissions a reality. Digital

technologies are used to connect people and things with carbon emissions and carbon

emissions with energy, for online, real-time monitoring and full lifecycle management

of carbon emissions in the park. With intelligent adjustment, linkage, and coordination

of energy consumption and supply systems and carbon management systems, the

consumption capacity and effective utilization of new energy have been improved.

Integrating energy, carbon, information, and value flows, the park keeps reducing its

carbon emissions to gradually achieve the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals. It

can save 3 GWh of electricity, reduce 5,600 tonnes of CO₂emissions, and 1,200 tonnes of

standard coal equivalent every year.

Figure 1 Jiangsu Yining Energy Micro-carbon Smart Energy Science and

Technology Innovation Industrial Park

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Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition

Countries have introduced policies to encourage the construction of green industrial

parks and the layout of emerging industries.

Relying on local resources to attract industrial

investment, countries are actively building low-carbon/zero-carbon industrial parks. On the one

hand, developed economies gradually bring efficient energy storage, hydrogen energy, smart

microgrids, CCUS, and other relevant green technologies into existing industrial parks in an

orderly manner to replace high-emission capacity, introduce emerging manufacturing capacity,

strengthen the digital and intelligent energy management, improve the energy efficiency of park

operations, and steadily promote the low-carbon and green transition of parks. On the other

hand, developing economies are vigorously building low-carbon industrial parks. Combined with

regional renewable energy development and energy interconnection construction, they develop

comprehensive collaborative energy systems featuring multi-energy conversion, multi-energy

complementation, and multi-grid integration, deploy advanced green technologies and green

processes, promote the decarbonization of emerging manufacturing clusters with high quality,

and enhance the low-carbon competitiveness of the manufacturing industry.

Column 5.5

Kalimantan Industrial Park Indonesia —

the World’s Largest Green Industrial Park

At the end of 2021, the construction of the world’s largest green industrial park

commenced in Bulungan Regency, North Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. The project,

covering an area of 16,000 hectares, is jointly built by developers from Indonesia, China,

and UAE. The park is for high-end and advanced manufacturing industries such as lithium

batteries, semiconductors, solar panels, green aluminum, and industrial silicon. The

Indonesian government estimates that about 100,000 jobs will be created during the park

construction and as many as 200,000 workers are expected to be employed in the long

term.

The green electrolytic aluminum smelting and processing will become a pillar industry of the

park. On the one hand, Indonesia is abundant in bauxite with reserves of up to 1.2 billion

tonnes, ranking 6th in the world. However, its lack of smelting capacity leads to low added

value of the mining industry and the failure to benefit domestic economic development and

employment for a long time. On the other hand, as countries are required to achieve the

goals of the Paris Agreement, the development of electrolytic aluminum and other energy-

intensive industries are facing challenges. The extensive development model of coal-

electricity-aluminum integration will gradually transform into green electrolytic aluminum

production driven by hydropower and solar energy and green smelting technology. PT

Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s second-largest coal miner, plans to invest USD 730 million

in building an aluminum smelter in the park. Hydropower stations on the Mentarang River

and Kayan River in West Kalimantan Province and PV power stations in nearby areas will

provide significant support for green electricity supply in the park. It is estimated that the

power infrastructure in the park and nearby ports need around USD 12 billion and USD 1

billion worth of investment respectively.

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Kalimantan Industrial Park will grow into a vital carrier and engine to drive energy transition

and industrial upgrading in Indonesia in the medium and long term. The park construction

will make North Kalimantan a critical hub for green energy and manufacturing, enabling

Indonesia to enhance its comprehensive strength in the manufacturing industry under the

background of global manufacturing pattern transfer and reshaping and better support

urbanization and industrialization.

5.3 Interconnection Stimulates Regional Development and Mitigation

Synergy

Through power grid interconnection, the scope of energy allocation will be expanded, which

can help efficiently connect the supply and demand sides, greatly reduce the cost of energy

development and utilization, and improve the flexibility of regional resource utilization.

Solar energy, wind energy, hydroenergy, and other clean energy sources are characterized

by volatility, randomness, and cross-time-and-space complementation. Through

interconnection, it is possible to fully coordinate time, seasonal, and resource differences,

reduce the costs of clean energy development, achieve mutual complementarity and

efficient utilization of multiple clean energy sources, stimulate regional development, and

realize regional mitigation synergy.

5.3.1 Development and Outlook of Global Power Grid Interconnection

To facilitate the diversification of energy supply and clean transformation, European, African,

Southeast Asian, and Gulf countries speed up power grid interconnection, and many large

European power grids feature

power transmission projects have gained major breakthroughs.

high-level overall development.

The interconnected power grids in Europe are dominated by

onshore AC interconnection and supplemented by cross-sea DC interconnection. Altogether

39 operators from 35 countries in Europe have joined the European Network of Transmission

System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), forming the world’s largest transnational

interconnected power grid. The Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2020 released

by the ENTSO-E contained 141 power transmission projects (85 transnational power

transmission projects) in 38 countries. The EU has put forward the Trans-European Networks

North

for Energy (TEN-E) strategy, setting an interconnection target of at least 15% by 2030.

American power grids boast a mature framework.

The main goal of power grid construction

in North America is to provide a channel for the transmission of electricity generated from

renewable energy and to secure the stability of power grids and reliability of power supply. From

2021 to 2025, there are 4,897 routes under planning or construction, including 197 routes with

Asian countries greatly differ in their development of

a capacity of more than 450/500 kV.

110

5

Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition

power grids.

Countries including Japan, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan have built

Africa is weak in power grid interconnection in

the 400/500/765 kV AC main framework.

general.

Five regional power pools have been established in Africa. Among them, the power

grids of five countries in North Africa have achieved synchronous interconnection and been

connected with that of West Europe and West Asia; three synchronous grids (northern, eastern,

and western) have been shaped in East Africa; the highest voltage level in South Africa is 765

South America enjoys high-level power grid development.

kV.

Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela,

Colombia, Uruguay, and other countries have formed a relatively strong main framework of 500

kV AC power grids.

The overall goal of future global power allocation is to develop a GEI backbone grid, widely

interconnecting large-scale clean energy bases and load centers for global allocation of clean

energy and cross-time zone and cross-seasonal large-scale mutual support.

Before 2035, the global power ﬂow will be dominated by inter-regional and transnational

power exchanges within continents, and inter-continental power exchange will be in its

initial stage.

Asia

“One horizontal and three longitudinal” interconnection channels will be built in

and Europe

, namely Asia-Europe north horizontal, Asia-Africa, Europe west longitudinal, Europe

central longitudinal, Asia east longitudinal, Asia central longitudinal, and Asia west longitudinal

interconnection channels. “One horizontal and three longitudinal” interconnection channels will be

Asia, Europe, and Africa

built in

longitudinal, Africa east longitudinal, and North Africa-West Asia interconnection channels. “Three

America

, namely Europe-Africa west longitudinal, Europe-Africa central

horizontal and one longitudinal” interconnection channels will be built in

, namely North

America south horizontal, South America north horizontal, South America south horizontal, and

America east longitudinal interconnection channels. By 2035, the total scale of inter-continental

and inter-regional power flow in the world will reach 330 GW, including 46 GW of inter-continental

power flow.

By 2050, clean energy bases will enter the stage of large-scale development, and global

power flow will form a pattern of global wide-range optimal allocation, multi-energy

complementation, and cross-time zone mutual support of clean energy.

“Two horizontal

Asia and Europe

and six longitudinal” interconnection channels will be built in

, with the newly-

added Asia-Europe south horizontal and Europe-Africa east longitudinal interconnection channels.

Asia, Europe,

“Two horizontal and three longitudinal” interconnection channels will be built in

and Africa

, with the newly-added Africa east longitudinal interconnection channel to constitute a

ring grid in Africa. “Four horizontal and three longitudinal” interconnection channels will be built in

America

, to further strengthen the North America south horizontal interconnection channel and

enhance the power transmission capacity of clean energy bases in the central and western United

Arctic Interconnection Channel:

States to load centers in the east and west.

It is expected to

build the Arctic energy interconnection channel in around 2050 with faster moves to promote the

development of clean energy in the Arctic. By 2050, the total scale of inter-continental and inter-

regional power flow in the world will reach 660 GW, including 110 GW of inter-continental power

flow.

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

Column 5.6

Brazil Belo Monte UHV Transmission Project

Promotes Green Power Consumption

In vast Brazil, 80% of the electricity load is concentrated in the developed southeast region,

while sources used for electricity generation are mainly in the northern Amazon River

Basin, with an extremely unbalanced distribution of supply and demand. The distance

between hydropower bases and load centers ranges from 1,000 km to 2,500 km. UHVDC

technology can effectively address the challenge of long-distance hydropower transmission

faced with the Belo Monte project.

In February 2014, State Grid Corporation of China and Eletrobras of Brazil jointly won

the bid for the Belo Monte UHVDC transmission project (“Belo Monte project” for short),

to transmit electricity from the Belo Monte Hydropower Station, the second largest

hydropower station in Brazil. The Belo Monte project is composed of Phase I and Phase

II, with a rated transmission capacity of 4 GW and a voltage level of ±800 kV. In December

2017, the Belo Monte Phase I project was completed and put into operation with a total

length of 2,084 km. In October 2019, the Belo Monte Phase II project was completed and

put into operation with a total length of 2,539 km.

The Belo Monte project transmits clean hydropower from the Amazon Basin in northern

Brazil to the load center in southeastern Brazil, which not only effectively solves the

problem of clean hydropower transmission and consumption in northern Brazil but also

provides a large number of jobs. It is capable of meeting the electricity needs of more than

22 million people, equivalent to 10% of Brazil’s total population, in core cities such as Sao

Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The Phase I project created more than 9,000 direct and more

than 21,000 indirect jobs during construction; the Phase II project created around 16,000

jobs. They fully promoted the development of local upstream and downstream industries.

Figure 1 Rio Converter Station of Brazil Belo Monte 800 kV UHVDC Phase II Project^A

Source: State Grid Corporation of China, State Grid builds ‘electric superhighway’ for Brazil, https://

www.chinaservicesinfo.com/s/202309/15/WS65041a07498ed2d7b7e9b315/state-grid-builds-electric-

superhighway-for-brazil.html.

A

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Energy-Industry Coordination for Just Transition

5.3.2 Regional Development and Emission Reduction Synergy

Investment in GEI energy systems can stimulate investment in relevant infrastructure

construction and directly contribute to economic growth.

By 2050, it is estimated that the

cumulative investment in energy systems will reach USD 97 trillion, contributing 4.6% to global

economic growth. Among them, Asia will have the largest cumulative investment, standing at USD

52.7 trillion, contributing 4.3% to economic growth. The cumulative investment in Europe and

North America is expected to amount to USD 14.8 trillion and USD 12.7 trillion, contributing 6.1%

and 4.2% to economic growth respectively. The cumulative investment in Africa and Central and

South America will be USD 9.1 trillion and USD 7.4 trillion, contributing 6% and 5.2% to regional

economic growth respectively. The cumulative investment in Oceania is likely to total USD 1.1

trillion, contributing 4.4% to economic growth.

Central and

South America

Figure 5.4 Economic Growth Driven by Energy System Investment in Six Continents.

The development of clean energy, upstream and downstream industries and enterprises

will be driven, creating new growth points for the global economy.

Power grid investment can

drive twice as much social investment. The energy network featuring multi-energy complement

dominated by clean energy, clean intelligent power and advanced manufacturing technology

provide power support and infrastructure construction guarantee for industrial transformation

and upgrading, so that clean energy can empower high-quality economic development. It is

imperative to promote the development of advanced manufacturing and service industries based

on clean energy, boost industrial transformation and upgrading with technological innovation,

and transform the advantages of clean energy resources into economic advantages. The transfer

of green and zero-carbon industries will drive the economic growth of underdeveloped regions,

promote regional coordinated and win-win development, form power grid interconnection

between underdeveloped countries rich in clean energy resources and neighboring relatively

developed countries, and realize mutual promotion between energy technology investment and

energy transmission and allocation.

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Figure 5.5 Inter-Regional Power Grid Interconnection Promotes Renewable

Energy Consumption and Mitigation^A

It is necessary to accelerate the extensive allocation and large-scale development and

utilization of clean energy, promote all regions to achieve mitigation goals, and speed

up the global mitigation process.

Inter-regional power grid interconnection can expand the

coverage of power grids and enable more high-quality wind and solar resources to be developed

and utilized, thus improving the economy of clean energy power generation, increasing renewable

energy power generation and greatly reducing CO₂emissions from the power sector. Compared

with the global baseline scenario without inter-regional interconnection, the construction of inter-

regional UHV transmission projects will increase renewable energy power generation by 12.3%

and reduce emissions by 55 GtCO₂in 2050, accounting for 5.5% of the cumulative emissions

of the whole society. For example, inter-regional interconnection will reduce coal-fired power

generation by 91% and CO₂emissions by 23.7% in South Asia in 2050^B.

Source: Guo F, van Ruijven B J, Zakeri B. et al., Implications of Intercontinental Renewable Electricity Trade for

Energy Systems and Emissions, Nature Energy, 2022, 7, 1144–1156.

A

B

Source: Guo F, van Ruijven B J, Zakeri B. et al., Implications of Intercontinental Renewable Electricity Trade for

Energy Systems and Emissions, Nature Energy, 2022, 7, 1144–1156.

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Column 5.7

Ethiopia-Kenya ±500 kV DC Transmission Project

The Ethiopia-Kenya ±500 kV DC Transmission Project is a key project planned by the

governments of Ethiopia and Kenya, with financing support from the World Bank and the

African Development Bank. It is the first transnational DC transmission interconnection

project on the African continent and also the trunk line for power interconnection planning

in East Africa. The project construction started from Wolayta/Sodo 400/132 kV AC

substation in Ethiopia and ended at the 440/220 kV AC substation at Mount Suswa in

Kenya. The transmission capacity of the line, with a total length of about 1,045 km, is 2

GW. The project commenced construction in 2016, and was put into trial operation in

2022.

Figure 1 Transmission Line of Ethiopia-Kenya 500 kV DC Project

The project realizes the extensive allocation of clean energy through power grid

interconnection, helps regional low-carbon coordinated development and mutual benefit. It

not only drives Ethiopia to earn foreign exchange by exporting surplus electricity, but also

provides stable and sufficient power for Kenya, thus promoting the economic and social

’

development and people s livelihood improvement in Ethiopia and Kenya. In addition, the

project has realized localized project management. In the process of project promotion

’

and implementation, full play has been given to Ethiopia s advantages in language, culture

and management of local human resources, providing employment opportunities for about

2,700 local people.

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5.4 Guaranteeing Social Justice

By developing clean energy in an intensive and interconnected manner, the economy and

reliability of energy supply will be greatly improved, and the costs of economic development will

be significantly reduced. The process of low-carbon energy transition will create a large number

of jobs, enhance the quality of labor force and human capital, effectively drive rapid economic

growth and vigorous social development, and enable underdeveloped regions and vulnerable

groups in society to share the fruits of sustainable development.

5.4.1 Enhancing Energy Economy

The competitiveness of clean energy will be improved.

Large-scale development and

utilization of clean energy and expansion of the optimal allocation scope of clean energy will

effectively reduce energy supply costs and enhance energy economy. With the progress of

conversion technologies such as wind energy, solar energy and green hydrogen and the rapid

reduction of costs, the competitiveness of clean energy will comprehensively exceed that of fossil

fuels. By 2050, the LCOE of onshore wind power and PV is expected to drop to 2.5 cents and

3 cents respectively, which are significantly lower than that of fossil fuel power generation^A. The

average cost of green hydrogen production is USD 1~1.5/kg, with obvious economic advantages

over blue hydrogen and gray hydrogen. By 2050, the global LCOE will be 2.8 cents/kWh lower

than the current level, and the annual costs of electricity will be reduced by USD 1.8 trillion.

The efficient utilization of clean energy will be realized. First,

the development is more

efficient. When a large UHV corridor connecting large-scale bases with load centers is completed,

the UHV power transmission distance can reach more than 5,000 km. Large power grids will

make full use of the differences in load characteristics in different regions to balance various

renewable energy in different regions and realize the joint, efficient and coordinated operation of

Second,

various energy.

the allocation is more efficient. Relying on GEI, large-scale power can be

efficiently transmitted and allocated around the world at the speed of light, instead of being limited

to a single country or continent. This will realize cross-time zone compensation in the Eastern and

Western Hemispheres and cross-seasonal regulation in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres,

Third,

thus greatly reducing the total installed capacity worldwide.

the consumption is more

efficient. Large power grids will expand the scope of clean energy consumption to the whole

world and ensure the full development and utilization of new energy resources. At the same time,

they will realize two-way interaction with users on the power consumption side, guide adjustable

loads to participate in system regulation, promote energy conservation and consumption

reduction, and improve the operation level of the energy system and the efficiency of energy

utilization.

The benefits of transnational and intercontinental interconnection will be brought.

GEI

can realize mutual complementation and support of power across countries and continents,

coordinate the resource difference, time zone difference, seasonal difference and electricity price

difference in different regions, reduce reserve capacity, improve the economy and operation

efficiency of the whole system, and significantly enhance investment benefits. At the same time,

power interconnection can realize load smoothing in different regions, provide flexible regulation

resources, reduce redundant construction of energy sources and energy storage, and effectively

Source: IEA, World Energy Statistics, 2018.

A

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save overall investment. For example, compared with the local development model, in order to

increase the interconnection capacity by 94.5 GW, Northeast Asia needs to add only RMB 300

billion of power grid investment, saving investment of about RMB 1.1 trillion in energy sources

and energy storage.

New momentum will be injected into economic development.

The large-scale development

of clean energy and the promotion of smart grid technology will improve the economy and

reliability of energy supply, provide safe, clean, low-carbon and efficient energy guarantee for

economic and social development, and significantly reduce the costs of energy consumption

and economic development in the whole society. Developing GEI can transform resource

advantages into economic advantages, accelerate the formation of an industrial system based

on clean energy, drive the vigorous development of strategic emerging industries such as new

energy, new materials, new types of energy storage, intelligent manufacturing and EVs, realize

multi-industry and cross-cutting coordinated transition, and foster new boosters of economic

growth.

5.4.2 Improving Energy Accessibility

Clean energy power supply will be realized.

GEI will promote the revolution in energy

production through clean replacement, and promote the coordinated development of clean

energy such as hydro, wind and solar power. The use of energy by mankind will be completely

transformed from high-carbon, extensive and polluting to zero-carbon, intelligent and clean. By

2050, clean energy will account for 70% of primary energy. As a large-scale allocation network

of global energy, GEI can enable clean energy to be transmitted with low cost, low loss, high

efficiency and high quality, optimize the allocation of energy resources among continents, regions

and countries, promote the development of an extensively interconnected global energy sharing

platform, and provide inexhaustible power for the sustainable development of human society. GEI

will meet the energy and electricity demand of global economic and social development in a clean

and green way, promote the energy consumption revolution with electricity replacement, greatly

improve the level of electrification in the whole society, and convert water and carbon dioxide into

fuels and raw materials such as hydrogen and methane through electricity to meet the needs of

sustainable human development. By 2050, clean energy power generation will account for 90.5%

of the total. Clean power supply with low costs and efficient services will cover every corner of the

earth, driving rapid economic growth and social prosperity.

Solutions will be proved to problems such as no access to electricity, poverty and

health.

The development of GEI will realize modern energy services with wide coverage and

low costs around the world, providing fairer and more inclusive development opportunities for

By 2030,

the least developed countries.

the global population with no access to electricity will

no one will have no access to electricity. Through base and distributed

by 2050,

be halved;

development, the LCOE of PV and wind power in Africa can be reduced to 2 cents/kWh and

1.7 cents/kWh by 2035. The universal power access in regions with concentrated poverty-

stricken population such as Africa and Asia will accelerate the promotion of key poverty

alleviation, give full play to the role of electricity in guaranteeing and improving industrial

production and living quality, comprehensively eradicate poverty, and promote social equity

and justice. Sufficient green energy will reduce environmental pollution, enable human beings to

have cleaner air, water and food, enjoy better medical and health services, and improve human

well-being.

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Column 5.8

Practice of Grid Power Supply and Distributed

Power Supply to Address No Access to Electricity in Africa

’

Africa s sustainable development is constrained by a serious shortage of energy and

electricity. More than 640 million people in Africa live in areas with no access to electricity.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest access rate to electricity in the world, with a per capita

power consumption of only 180 kWh/year. The construction of power grid or distributed

power supply system according to local conditions will help see to it that no one has no

access to electricity.

1. Grid Power Supply Provides Power Guarantee for Schools

In May 2018, the Abay Silto School Power Supply Project, the first GEI energy aid project,

was successfully completed, providing civil power supply to the school in Gelan, Oromia,

about 45 km southeast of Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. A 15 kV line from the

nearby Bole-Lemi substation was built to supply power to the school. The project has

a total line length of 7.5 km and 120 power poles. Upon completion of the project, the

electricity cost of the school has been reduced by nearly 80%, and advanced teaching aids

such as computers and projectors have been used in classrooms. This project has laid a

foundation for tackling no access to electricity in surrounding villages.

Figure 1 Grid Power Supply to Address No Access to Electricity at Abay Silto School

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2. The Distributed Power Supply System Allows Communities Access to Electricity

Distributed PV or other renewable energy power generation is another effective way to offer

access to electricity and improve power coverage. Nigeria is the most populous country

in Africa. About 40% of its population had no access to electricity, and power shortage

’

and outage seriously restricted its economic development. In December 2020, Nigeria s

national PV assistance program

“Solar Home System” (SHS)

was officially implemented. Five

million SHS and mini-grids will

be installed in communities with

insufficient power services or off-

grid ones across the country to

provide clean electricity for about

25 million people in remote areas.

The SHS program also involves

manufacturing and assembling

of PV modules, encourages solar

equipment manufacturers or

assemblers to build factories in

Nigeria. It is expected to create

250,000 jobs.

Figure 2 Distributed PV Power Generation Helps Address

No Access to Electricity in Africa^A

Global energy security will be more reliable.

GEI can realize low-cost and sufficient clean

energy supply, and foster a safe and stable energy supply and demand pattern, green and

low-carbon energy development model, mutually beneficial and win-win energy cooperation

relationship, and universal and efficient energy governance system. Energy development will be

less affected by factors such as geopolitics, natural disasters, financial manipulation, commercial

speculation and monopoly operation to better support economic and social development. With

its strong resource allocation capability, the global power network can ensure large-scale access

to centralized and distributed energy sources such as hydro, wind and solar power generation,

thus realizing flexible conversion of power supply and consumption relations. Advanced

digital and intelligent technologies can help accurately predict the electricity load, dynamically

adjust the power system structure, and ensure the safe and stable operation of transnational

and intercontinental power grids. GEI, robust and intelligent, is highly resistant to risks. It can

automatically predict and identify most faults and risks, efficiently respond to various natural

disasters, and greatly improve its security capability.

5.4.3 Increasing Decent Jobs

Increasing investment in clean and low-carbon energy transition will boost employment

growth. First,

investment in energy transition will bring direct employment growth in three

aspects: developing renewable energy, enhancing the flexibility of power grids and energy, and

Source: https://www.seetao.com/details/209512.html.

A

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

improving energy efficiency^A. Every USD 1 million invested in developing renewable energy and

improving energy efficiency will create nearly 3 times as many jobs as in fossil fuels^B. The energy

transition and technological advances will also change what workers do and how they work.

Education and training programs will help workers in traditional industries acquire the necessary

Second,

skills for new jobs, increasing employment opportunities for them.

the collaboration

between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will bring new employment

opportunities. The low-carbon energy transition will directly drive the development of upstream

industries such as production and processing of key raw materials (copper, nickel, lithium, rare

earth, etc.), manufacturing of power generation equipment and core components, construction,

operation and maintenance of power generation systems, and promote the coordinated transition

of downstream major energy-consuming sectors such as industrial manufacturing, transportation

and building, playing an important role in solving employment problems and reducing

Third,

unemployment rate.

promoting the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure will

create a large number of jobs. Energy transition will inject strong impetus into the transformation

and upgrading of the industrial structure of the whole society, promote the vigorous development

of core industries of the digital economy and strategic emerging industries, continuously bring

new economic growth points and new employment opportunities, and promote high-quality

economic and social development.

Fostering the synergy of the whole energy and power industry chain will increase

investment in various ﬁelds.

higher than that of direct ones, with a ratio of about 2:1 .

The number of indirect jobs driven by investment is significantly

C

By 2050,

investment in the energy

system will create nearly 50 million jobs worldwide: in particular, nearly 27 million in Asia or more

than half of the global total, 4 million in Europe and 1.8 million in North America, about 16 million

in Africa, about 1 million in Central and South America, with an advantage in clean energy, and

close to 0.5 million in Oceania.

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Source: IEA, Global Renewables Outlook: Energy Transformation 2050, 2020.

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B

Source: Garrett-Peltier H, Green Versus Brown: Comparing the Employment Impacts of Energy Efficiency,

Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels Using an Input-Output Model, Economic Modelling, 2017, 61: 439-447.

Source: IEA, Net Zero by 2050: Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, 2021.

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Column 5.9

Cases of Energy Transition and New Employment

1. Investment in Energy Transition and Job Creation in the Great Lakes Region of the

United States

The Great Lakes region of the United States is on the south of the five largest lakes in

North America. Since the 1930s, manufacturing and population have continued to migrate

from this region due to multiple factors such as emerging industries, international trade,

skills and education. From 2014 to 2019, the Great Lakes region had the lowest share of

employment in the 25 most productive industries, with the vitality of all major industries

slowing. In recent years, the federal government has issued a series of laws to encourage

investment in clean energy power and create new opportunities for the development of a

world-class export and innovation center in the Great Lakes region. The state governments

have also actively capitalized on the opportunity of energy transition investment to create

new economic growth drivers and jobs for local people, and introduced policies related to

workforce development and just energy transition. Since 2021, the region has attracted

investment of more than USD 40 billion in new energy transition, especially in areas such

as EVs and batteries and new types of electrolysers. In 2022, the Great Lakes states saw

21,000 more jobs related to new energy^A, and their investment in manufacturing increased

by 150% above the pre-pandemic average^B. According to the latest data from the United

States Census Bureau, the most dynamic metropolitan areas in the high-tech sector were

located in the Great Lakes region. A study found that with supportive policies, Michigan

could add 56,000 jobs in EVs by 2030.

Figure 1 GM Builds a Battery Factory in Lansing, Michigan

Source: The United States Department of Energy, US Energy & Employment Report, 2023.

Source: https://rmi.org/a-strategy-for-accelerating-energy-transition-investment-in-the-great-lakes/.

A

B

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2. Integrated Multi-energy Complement Project of Wind, Solar and Thermal Power

Generation in Inner Mongolia Creates Jobs

’

Inner Mongolia s coal output accounts for about 1/4 of China s total, but the development

’

model with coal s dominance has caused serious damage to the local ecological

environment and crowded out other industries. In order to achieve the SDGs, Inner

Mongolia has given full play to its advantages in wind and solar resources, encouraged

integrated multi-energy complementary projects of wind, solar and thermal power

generation, created a large number of new jobs, and solved the unemployment problem

caused by coal withdrawal through policy guidance and strengthened skills training for

workers. Inner Mongolia has built a 10 GW PV power generation base in Ulan Buh Desert,

Dengkou County, distributed wind power bases in Urad Middle Banner and Urad Rear

Banner, and China-Mongolia Electricity Cooperation Demonstration Zone to promote

diversified energy supply guarantee and alleviate the pressure of wind-solar grid integration.

It has also developed PV sand and desertification control modes such as PV in Kubuqi

Desert. The development of new energy bases has brought a large number of jobs in

manufacturing industries of high value-added equipment such as wind power, PV and

energy storage.

Take the PV industry chain program of LONGi Green Energy in Ejin Horo Banner as an

example. With a total investment of RMB 39 billion, it will build a monocrystalline silicon rod

and slice project with an annual capacity of 46 GW, a high-efficiency monocrystalline cell

project with an annual capacity of 30 GW and a high-efficiency photovoltaic module project

with an annual capacity of 5 GW. After the program reaches its full design capacity, it will

contribute RMB 3 billion in tax revenue and create about 17,000 jobs.

Figure 2 Kubuqi 2 GW PV Sand Control Project in Western Inner Mongolia Base

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Coordination for a

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Resilient Energy Transition

Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

As global warming continues, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather

events are on the rise. This poses significant challenges to ensuring a stable

energy and electricity supply and maintaining the smooth operation of production

and daily life. The climate sensitivity of energy and power systems has increased

dramatically in response to these changes. Climate change and extreme weather

events have become pivotal factors impacting the operation and development

of the energy and power industries. The resilient transition of energy and power

’

systems is crucial for the industry s growth.

6.1 Climate Change Impacts on Energy and Power Systems

As climate warming and climate anomalies intensify, the relationship between energy systems,

power system infrastructure, and the climate system becomes more intricately woven. Extreme

weather events, functioning as “risk multipliers”, will heighten the challenges associated with

ensuring the safe and stable operation of energy and power systems.

6.1.1 Assessment of Climate Resilience Impacts on Energy and Power Systems

Deep Coupling Between the Electricity Supply System and the Climate Environmental

1

System

Extreme weather has caused the dilemma of a “bad summer harvest”, and the uncertainty

of hydropower has increased significantly.

Extreme high temperatures and droughts

trigger changes in the seasonal characteristics of hydropower. Extreme high temperatures are

often accompanied by high-pressure climate systems, leading to decreased rainfall and increased

evapotranspiration. It is easy to form a composite extreme high temperature and drought event,

resulting in insufficient surface runoff and a drop in river water level, thereby affecting hydropower

output. For example, China has been affected by the western Pacific subtropical high this year.

Since July, the rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin has been 46% lower than that of the same period

in normal years. The water inflow from Sichuan hydropower has been reduced by 50%. In August,

China’s hydropower generation dropped by more than 10% year-on-year. Affected by persistent

hot and dry weather, many rivers in Europe are seriously short of water. As of the end of July,

the average water storage rate of reservoirs in Norway, a major hydropower country, was 68%,

about 10 percentage points lower than the average level for the same period in the past 10 years.

Long-term climate warming is superimposed by short-term high-pressure static and stable

weather, and the wind power support capacity continues to be lower than expected.

On

the climatic scale, due to climate warming, the air pressure difference between regions narrowed,

resulting in a long-term trend of decrease in the average wind speed; on the synoptic scale, the

high-pressure climate system caused static and stable weather, which further led to a short-term

’

weakening of wind speed. For example, in July this year, Chinas average wind power output was

about 63.39 GW, which was only 19% of the installed capacity, and the power balance intensified.

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Extreme high temperatures have caused PV output to decrease rather than increase,

reducing the availability of solar energy resources.

On the one hand, long-term climate

change leads to a decrease in direct radiation and sunshine duration; on the other hand, extreme

high temperatures can lead to a decrease in the output power of PV modules or even damage

the modules, affecting the power generation performance of the system. For example, this year,

’

China s installed PV capacity in Sichuan increased by 5% compared with the same period last

year, but PV power generation in July fell by 6% year-on-year.

Inland nuclear power plants are vulnerable to extreme heat due to cooling water issues.

Extreme heat and droughts have caused river water levels to drop and temperatures to rise,

reducing water consumption for cooling nuclear power units and reducing nuclear power

generation capacity. For example, France was affected by the continuous high temperatures this

summer, and the water level of the river used for cooling nuclear reactors fell to the lowest level in

20 years. In June, nuclear power generation fell by about 27% year-on-year.

The Climate Resilience of Energy Infrastructure Faced a Major Test

2

Extreme weather conditions such as high temperatures, cold waves, storms, and

thunderstorms reduce the performance of grid equipment or directly damage the equipment,

endangering the safe operation of the power grid.

Cold weather can easily lead to icing of wind

turbine blades, equipment damage, and reduced capacity of energy storage equipment; storms

can cause wind turbines to stop due to exceeding the limit wind speed. In January 2021, affected

by low pressure and cold waves, heavy snowstorms continued to occur along the coast of the

Sea of Japan. The output of solar power generation was insufficient, and wind power was shut

down on a large scale, resulting in power outages in many places in Japan, affecting more than

45,000 households. In February of the same year, the extreme cold wave in Texas caused a large

number of gas and wind turbines to be out of operation due to faults such as cracked pipes and

icing on the blades, causing about 5 million people in many areas to experience power cuts in turn.

Extreme high temperatures have led to overheating, damage to transmission lines, and

a reduction in transmission capacity. Storms have caused faults such as tripping and

disconnection of transmission lines, forcing power grids to enter an incomplete operation

mode.

In the summer of 2003, due to continuous high temperatures and soaring loads, some

transmission lines in the northeastern United States experienced overload trips, which eventually

led to the “8·14” power outage in the United States and Canada, affecting nearly 55 million

people. In September 2016, extreme storms caused twenty 275 kV and 132 kV transmission

lines of power grids in southern Australia to collapse. A total of four 275 kV transmission lines and

one 132 kV transmission line were tripped and shut down, resulting in a large-scale power outage

in south Australia, affecting about 1.7 million people.

The Sharp Increase in the Climate Sensitivity of Electricity Demand and Modes

3

Peak loads caused by climate change and extreme weather events are increasingly

prominent.

The highest load in summer is positively correlated with temperatures. Studies have

shown that in extreme cases, for every 1 °C increase in the maximum summer temperature, the

maximum load may increase by 4.5%. With the improvement of people’s living standards and the

development of the tertiary industry, the cooling load, which is highly sensitive to temperature, is

increasing year by year.

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The duration of extreme events was an important factor affecting the variation of load

characteristics.

Statistics have shown that when the average temperature within a region rises to

about 24°C, the cooling load begins to appear; when the temperature is close to 30°C and lasts

for more than a week, the cooling load accelerates, and the duration directly affects the extreme

value in summer; after the temperature drops, the high load will persist for 2-3 days due to the

lag in load return. Since August 2022, China’s Central Meteorological Observatory has issued a

high temperature red warning for 12 consecutive days. The extreme high temperatures boosted

the load of the power grid in Sichuan to record highs, up to twice the annual average load. With

the joint efforts of the government, power grid operators, and all parties in the industry, relying on

multiple measures such as inter-regional power support, new load management, and enterprises

giving priority to electricity use for the people, Sichuan achieved power security under extreme

events.

6.1.2 A Mechanistic Framework for Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Energy and

Power Systems

Mitigation and adaptation are two key strategies for addressing climate change. They

complement each other, and both are essential in collectively reducing the climate risks

faced by human society. Mitigation

involves making long-term adjustments in economic

systems such as energy and industry, as well as natural ecosystems, to reduce greenhouse

gas (GHG) emissions, increase carbon sinks, and stabilize or decrease atmospheric GHG

concentrations, thereby slowing down the rate of climate change. In this process, the

climate risks that have already occurred will not be eliminated, and potential climate risks

will continue to accumulate, even during the period after achieving global carbon emissions

Adaptation

peak and carbon neutrality.

refers to reducing the adverse impacts and potential

risks of climate change by strengthening the risk identification and management of natural

ecosystems and economic and social systems, taking adjustment measures, making full

use of favorable factors and preventing unfavorable factors. Regional disparities are evident

in the impacts and risks of climate change. The practical and effective implementation

of adaptation measures is imperative to mitigate the adverse effects and risks faced by

nations and regions. Such measures are urgently needed to safeguard economic and social

development.

From a scientific perspective, climate risks arise from the interaction of hazards, the

exposure of risk carriers, and their vulnerability. Climate change does not necessarily lead

to disasters; it is only when it intersects with exposure and vulnerability that risks may

emerge. Hazards

refer to the changes in both natural and human-induced climates, determining

the likelihood of risk occurrence. Climate change risk factors primarily involve two aspects: one is

the average climate condition, such as temperature and precipitation trends, which are considered

gradual events; the other is extreme weather and climate events, such as tropical cyclones, storm

surges, heavy rainfall, river floods, heatwaves, cold spells, droughts, etc., categorized as extreme

Risk carriers

events.

effects, including individuals, livelihoods, environmental services, various resources, infrastructure,

Exposure and vulnerability

refer to the socio-economic and resource environment that suffers adverse

and economic, social, or cultural assets.

are two attributes of the

risk carriers. Exposure refers to the number of risk carriers located in positions where they could

potentially experience adverse impacts. Vulnerability indicates the possibility or tendency to be

adversely affected.

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Energy-Meteorology Coordination for a Resilient Energy Transition

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From the perspective of enhancing resilience, mitigation affects the climate system by

influencing hazards to reduce climate risks. Adaptation, on the other hand, targets the

socio-economic system by mitigating exposure and vulnerability to decrease climate risks.

In terms of mitigation,

climate hazards faced by energy and power systems mainly include

traditional climate disasters such as high-temperature heatwaves, low-temperature cold waves,

heavy rain and floods, snow and ice storms, typhoons, wildfires, and other singular climate

events. It also encompasses compound climate events like extreme heat without wind, extreme

cold without sunlight, and extreme drought without water. The de-carbonization of the energy

industry is crucial to slowing down climate change. Promoting emission reduction in the energy

industry will effectively curb the risks of climate change, reducing the hazards that contribute

In terms of adaptation,

to climate-related disasters.

the source-grid-load components of the

energy and power systems are to some extent influenced by climate change. Compared to

fossil fuels, renewable energy is more susceptible to fluctuations in the climate system and the

impacts of climate change, leading to higher vulnerability. With the increase in grid infrastructure,

exposure to various extreme events intensifies, contributing to the increased vulnerability of the

grid facilities. The load is mainly divided into primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well

as residential electricity consumption. The electricity load in the tertiary industry and residential

sectors is more vulnerable to extreme high and low temperatures during peak electricity usage

in summer and winter, making them more susceptible to adverse impacts. As the most critical

infrastructure supporting socio-economic development, the energy and power industry plays a

vital role. Enhancing the adaptability of the energy and power systems to climate change and

reducing facility exposure and vulnerability will provide robust safeguards for the supply of energy

and power.

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Overall Strategy for Promoting a Resilient Transition Through Energy and

Meteorological Collaboration

Figure 6.2

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Energy-Meteorology Coordination for a Resilient Energy Transition

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6.2 Coordinated Development of Energy and Meteorology

The key measures for adapting to climate change in the new power and energy systems include

the construction of climate-adaptive power and energy systems, the promotion of the integrated

development of energy and meteorological technologies, and the advancement of policy and

market mechanisms.

6.2.1 Building Climate-Resilient Power Systems

Constructing a Diversified Power Source System Prioritizing New Energy

1

In the planning phase, we need to scientiﬁcally analyze the power generation capacity of

new energy sources and, during operation, conduct high-precision forecasts for the power

output of new energy sources to enhance our ability to withstand climate risks.

We need to

strengthen the integration of power prediction and high-precision climate prediction on the power

supply side, establish a fully functional database and model calculation platform, and improve the

accuracy and precision of new energy power prediction in the face of long-term climate change

and short-term extreme weather events by adopting advanced technologies such as advanced

sensing, real-time communication, data fusion, state estimation, and situation prediction. This will

facilitate the site selection, planning, design, development, and operation of new energy bases.

Column 6.1

High-Precision Wind and Solar Power Forecasting Technology

in Germany Promotes New Energy Consumption^A

Germany has adopted a power balancing mechanism based on a balancing group^B, which

is combined with meteorological numerical forecasting technology to provide accurate

forecasts of new energy output within 15 minutes, so as to ensure the balance of power

generation and loads in the German power grid and to maintain the stability of the power

grid. It uses meteorological information to accurately forecast both load and power

generation in the spot market, thus effectively reducing the cost of system balancing.

The innovations of this technology are: first, the sources of predictive data are diverse. In

addition to adopting various mathematical prediction methods, Germany has long been

utilizing multiple weather forecast models to predict renewable energy generation. Along

with various standard weather forecast data, Germany incorporates multiple additional

sources, such as image data from satellites, real-time data from weather radar and weather

balloons, and weather forecast data from navigation and spaceflight. The increasing volume

Source: Zhou Yingya, Yan Luokai, and Liao Yu, Germany: The Secret of High Consumption, Energy Review,

2016, 02, Issue 86.

A

B

The mechanism of balancing groups is at the core of the design of the German power market. On one hand, it

ensures that electricity can be traded like securities, and on the other hand, it guarantees the balance between

power generation and consumption, maintaining the stability of the power grid.

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of data requires advanced big data technology for more effective solutions to renewable

energy prediction challenges. Secondly, comprehensive consideration is given to various

influencing factors. Morning fog can introduce systematic errors into predictions for PV

power generation, and previous errors caused by dust storms have resulted in a critical

shortage of system reserves. An increasing number of influencing factors are included

in prediction models, including snow accumulation, cold fronts, hurricanes, atmospheric

convection in cloud layers, power grid transmission bottlenecks, and the operational

status of renewable energy stations. Thirdly, there is an enhanced timeliness of predictive

information. By refining meteorological models and incorporating real-time observational

data from renewable energy sources, Germany has introduced two specialized products

for renewable energy predictions. This has shortened the forecast release time to 15

minutes and extended the prediction period to 45 hours.

Achievements: The first one is that it guarantees the consumption of renewable energy.

Germany arranges the power generation plans for traditional fossil fuel power plants, such

as coal-fired thermal power, based on early and precise wind and PV power generation

forecast curves. This aims to maximize the consumption of new energy. The second one

is that the power grid is kept safe and stable. Germany achieves balance in each microgrid

or distribution network area and ensures the equilibrium between power generation and

consumption in the power grid. The collaboration between the balancing group and the

transmission system operator is crucial for maintaining the balance of power supply and

demand. This partnership preserves the stability of the power grid and enhances the

overall security of the system. The third achievement is that it has facilitated transactions in

the power market. The balancing group mechanism ensures that electricity can be traded

like securities, reducing intermediate costs for both electricity supply and demand parties,

including transmission and distribution costs as well as transaction costs. The better the

forecasting and balancing control of the balancing group, the less balancing power the

system needs, resulting in higher commercial benefits.

We need to establish a mechanism for complementary fluctuating power sources,

strengthen the construction of non-climate-sensitive power sources, and promote the

diversiﬁed development of the power generation structure.

As the proportion of renewable

energy integration into the grid continues to rise, the power system faces both stochastic

fluctuations in load demand and uncertainty of power inputs. Particularly under the influence

of extreme weather conditions, the reliability of the power system significantly weakens. This

necessitates the deployment of controllable power sources such as thermal, hydro, natural

gas, and biomass power generation for multi-source complementarity. This ensures that the

performance of the power system can quickly recover during the insufficient energy stage^Ain the

evolution of accidents under extreme weather conditions.

Power outages induced by extreme weather typically involve four stages in the power system: equilibrium

stability, energy insufficiency, capacity insufficiency, and returning to stability. The energy insufficiency stage

refers to the impact of long-term climate change and short-term extreme weather on fuel supply facilities and

the performance of power generation equipment. This can lead to insufficient energy supply at a given time.

A

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We need to deploy backup energy sources tailored to local conditions, considering a

coordinated approach to backup capacity that adapts to the impact of extreme weather.

The sufficiency and reliability of backup energy sources are critical factors in altering the course

of accidents and determining whether a power crisis can be promptly resolved. The standards for

reserve capacity should not only consider traditional factors like load and maintenance reserves

but also take into account the severity and duration of extreme weather hazards. In coordination

with the available local backup energy source types, scales, and attributes, a reevaluation of the

safety and cost-effectiveness of system reserve capacity should be conducted, thus establishing

the optimal reserve capacity and optimizing the layout of backup energy sources to suit local

conditions.

Building a Highly Intelligent, Proactive and actively Restored Power Grid System

2

Before accidents occur, we need to take various preparatory measures and enhance the

power grid’s ability to predict accidents.

In the case of foreseeable accidents and climate

disasters such as typhoons and blizzards, which can be predicted well in advance, targeted

contingency plans should be prepared. Combining accident prediction models, the risks facing

the power system should be predicted and assessed, allowing for proactive deployment and

issuing warnings before accidents occur. In the face of rare and extreme disasters such as super

typhoons, the power grid should be able to adapt to unforeseen circumstances. This means

identifying weak links in the power grid and implementing improvement measures. Advanced

operational control systems, including corrective control, emergency control, active splitting, and

islanded operations, should be deployed. These measures will enhance the overall capability of

the power grid to respond to climate risks.

During accidents, proactive defensive measures should be taken at the planning, design,

operation, and scheduling levels to minimize the impact of climate-related risks.

At the

planning and design levels, we need to strengthen the resilience of power grid components and

increase grid redundancy through the formulation of climate adaptation plans. This fortifies the

grid structure, enabling it to withstand damage to primary and secondary systems from extreme

events. At the operation and scheduling levels, when dealing with extreme events, we need to

coordinate various controllable resources to rapidly compensate for power shortages, enhance

system stability, and reduce the impact range of disruptive events.

After accidents, we need to promptly initiate emergency recovery and repair mechanisms,

ensuring a continuous power supply to critical loads and swiftly restoring power grid

operations.

Under routine disturbances, the power grid needs to be able to utilize advanced

protection and automation measures to promptly clear, locate, isolate faults, and restore power

supply. In scenarios of widespread power outages caused by extreme events, the power grid

needs to be capable of rapidly repairing damaged equipment and have comprehensive black-start

plans. It should also effectively mobilize distributed power sources, energy storage, microgrids,

mobile power generation vehicles, and other resources to ensure a continuous power supply to

critical electrical loads.

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Column 6.2

State Grid Ensures 100% Green Power Supply for the 2022

Beijing Winter Olympics Through Meteorological Services

“100% green power” means that all venues of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics have

achieved a reliable supply of green power throughout their entire lifecycle. However,

the secure and stable operation of the power grid faces three major challenges - low

power prediction accuracy, difficulty in load peak shaving, and high risk of meteorological

disasters. Reliable support and assurance from meteorological services are urgently

needed.

In the innovation of meteorological services for electricity, there are three aspects: First,

innovation in new energy scheduling technology is promoted. Key technologies that take

into account meteorological factors are developed, including multi-scale forecasting of

new energy resources, power prediction, and optimization of scheduling strategies. This

ensures the effective scheduling and consumption of new energy. The resource forecasting

system, taking into account large-scale climate effects and small-scale local effects, can

achieve a forecast duration of 72 hours, a temporal resolution of 15 minutes, and a local

spatial resolution of 30 m × 30 m. The forecast error has been reduced from 25% to 10%.

Second, an intelligent panoramic platform for power transmission is built. The micro-terrain

and micro-meteorological information around critical power lines in the Beijing Winter

Olympics competition zones is scrutinized, and satellite monitoring is utilized for early

warning. A precise warning platform for short-term risks of power-related meteorological

disasters is established. Third, a power security assurance system is established.

Coordination and communication between the power and meteorological departments

Figure 1 Green Power Supply for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics

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are strengthened, and a specialized meteorological safety assurance system for Olympic-

related equipment is established. Meteorological analysis, warnings, and information

sharing in the core area are emphasized. Precise guidance for equipment operation and

maintenance is provided based on meteorological analysis, warnings, and information

sharing in the core area. Tailored operation and maintenance strategies are formulated in

response to meteorological warning information.

Achievements and values: First, there is an improvement in energy conservation and

carbon reduction benefits. The Beijing Winter Olympics has become the first Olympic

Games in history to entirely utilize green and clean electricity. In total, approximately

400 million kWh of green electricity consumption was reached, equivalent to reducing

the burning of 0.128 Mtce and cutting emissions by 320,000 tCO₂. Second, advanced

experience for carbon neutrality in global large-scale sports events is provided. Through the

deep integration of electricity and meteorology, supported by meteorological information

and services, we have ensured 100% green power for the Beijing Winter Olympics. This

serves as a reference for future large-scale sports events and urban carbon neutrality.

Forming a Flexible, Diversified, Open, and Interactive Demand-Side Load System

3

We need to establish a long-term demand-side management mechanism and achieve

orderly electricity consumption through extensive collaborative relationships.

Extreme

weather conditions have led to a sharp increase in the imbalance between power supply and

demand. Demand-side management involves multiple entities, including the government, market,

and dispatching, making coordination more challenging. Relying solely on power companies and

market mechanisms may not be sufficient to address the situation. We need to establish a long-

term collaborative mechanism on a larger scale, forming a close cooperative relationship led by

power companies with the cooperation of power users and backed by government guarantees.

This is crucial for effective intervention during energy shortages and preventing the evolution of

power outage accidents.

We need to tap into the deployable power supply resources on the demand side to

enhance grid resilience through comprehensive energy supply.

A collaborative mechanism

between the distribution network and the electrified transportation network needs to be set up.

This will enhance vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology and its related applications for electric vehicles.

Pre-disaster design and planning of optimized scenarios for the participation of multiple types

of electric vehicles, including electric cars and buses, in disaster prevention and recovery are

essential. During disasters, coordination with other energy storage devices on the demand side

and the original Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) systems will provide continuous power supply

to the load.

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6.2.2 Constructing Climate-Adaptive Energy Systems

Promoting Energy Infrastructure Adaptation to Climate Change

1

We need to build and maintain new energy infrastructure with full consideration of climate

risk to reduce climate-related losses of the energy system.

Climate change, especially

climate extremes, has a significant impact on various aspects of energy production, supply,

transportation, storage, and consumption. When constructing new energy production facilities,

energy transport infrastructure, and electric power transmission facilities, it is crucial to conduct

a thorough assessment of climate change and the frequency, intensity, and trends of climate

extremes in the region. Comprehensive consideration should be given to the impact on different

types of energy systems at various stages. This information should then be used to formulate

plans for the construction and maintenance of energy infrastructure, facilitating the optimal

allocation of various energy resources.

Column 6.3

A Cold Wave Storm Triggers a Major Power

Outage Event in Texas, USA

In mid-February 2021, Texas experienced extreme cold weather due to a winter storm.

The entire state faced frigid temperatures, dropping below zero, with some areas reaching

as low as –26°C—significantly below the average winter temperature of over 10°C. The

extreme cold weather severely impacted the operation of the energy and power systems in

the state. This was shown in two aspects: first, the demand for heating led to a significant

short-term increase in energy demand, power load, and electricity demand. Starting on

February 10, the daily maximum load in Texas began to exceed the forecasted values. On

the night of February 14, the actual load reached the peak of this event, approximately

69.22 GW, exceeding the usual winter maximum load by more than 10 GW. Secondly,

the cold wave severely impacted the natural gas and power supply systems, leading to a

severe shortage in short-term supply. The cold wave led to the shutdown of power units

totaling 45 GW, accounting for 43% of the total installed capacity.

The rolling blackouts in Texas during this event affected more than 4.5 million residents,

covering all 254 counties. This led to at least 70 fatalities and economic losses exceeding

USD 195 billion. Due to the tight power supply, electricity prices surged in the Texas power

market. On February 16, the wholesale electricity price peaked at over USD 10/kWh, with

some areas reaching USD 12/kWh, marking a 100-time increase within a week. The price

of natural gas also soared from the usual USD 0.085/m³ to USD 14.26/m³, experiencing an

increase of nearly 170 times.

The major power outage event in Texas was the result of a comprehensive failure of

multiple systems caused by extreme weather. It reflects the combined effects of various

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February 16, 11:00 p.m. EST

February 17, EST

Proportion of users without power (%)

40 60

0

20

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100

Figure 1 Map of Power Outages in Texas on February 16-17, 2021

factors, including development philosophy, infrastructure, management systems, market

mechanisms, etc. This incident highlights deeper issues such as aging energy and power

facilities in Texas, weak interregional power assistance, loose management systems, and

inadequate emergency plans.

In the future, as energy and power systems increasingly rely on natural elements, there is a

need to strengthen early-stage research and technological reserves for the security of high-

proportion clean energy power systems. This involves achieving dynamic matching and

coordinated optimization between “power source-grid-load-storage systems” and weather

and climate systems. Additionally, attention should be given to the role of traditional fossil

fuels in addressing extreme events, reinforcing the synergy of power and other energy

infrastructure.

Promoting the Collaborative Disaster Resilience in Other Critical Infrastructure

2

Optimizing urban power grids and vital infrastructure like natural gas pipelines, water

supply systems, and transportation networks is of great importance. This is crucial for

addressing extreme events and climate-related risks.

The coupling of urban power grids

with critical infrastructure, such as urban natural gas pipelines, water supply systems, and

transportation systems, is becoming increasingly interconnected. Power outage incidents further

lead to the failure of vital urban lifeline systems, including transportation, communication, and

water supply, posing a serious threat to public safety. It is crucial to fully consider the coupling

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relationships between the power grid and other systems such as gas supply, water supply, and

transportation. Establishing precise mechanisms for the allocation of power generation resources

and electricity usage resources is essential.

Column 6.4

Coordinated Load Recovery Decision Making Technology for

Power-Water-Gas Supply Systems

The complex coupling among critical infrastructure poses a challenge. In the event of a

major power outage triggered by extreme events, insufficient consideration of this coupling

in recovery decisions may lead to the consequence that even if the power supply of a

specific critical infrastructure is restored, it may still be unable to operate normally. Through

developing a mixed-integer second-order cone programming model that considers the

coordination of critical infrastructure with the goal of maximizing the operational capacity

of the infrastructure, we can provide optimized decision support for the recovery of the

distribution network.

Disasters

Natural gas system

Electric power system

Hospital

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Natural gas pipelines

Mobile power

generation

vehicle

Micro gas turbine Electric vehicle

Water supply

pipeline

Transportation system

Emergency center

Natural gas flow

Water supply station

Traffic flow

Power flow

Water supply flow

Figure 1 Coordinated Disaster Response of Urban Power Grids with Other Critical Infrastructures

In the case of building an infrastructure-coupled system based on the improved IEEE-13

bus standard example, mathematical modeling is applied to three types of infrastructure—

the water supply system, the gas supply system, and the hospital—and their coupling.

The distribution network provides power to the hospital, water supply station, water

pump station, and gas supply station. The water supply station utilizes the recovered

electricity to supply water to the gas supply station and the hospital through the water

pump station. The gas supply station uses the restored electricity and water directly to

supply gas to the hospital. The hospital utilizes the supplied electricity, water, and gas to

restore its operational capacity. In this example, the hospital is located at bus 7; the gas

supply station is established at bus 12; water supply station 1 is positioned at bus 2, while

water supply station 2 is placed at bus 9. The three water pump stations are sequentially

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positioned at bus 4, bus 11, and bus 13. The remaining six buses are ordinary load buses,

with three distributed generators (DGs) respectively positioned at bus 3, bus 5, and bus

8. The topology of the water supply system network is composed of buses connected

to the hospital load, buses connected to the gas supply station load, buses connected

to the water supply station load, buses connected to the water pump station load, and

one ordinary load bus. It includes 8 buses and 7 lines. The gas supply system consists

of buses connected to the hospital load and buses connected to the gas supply station

load.

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The results of the example are obtained through a comparison between considering

and not considering the results of collaborative recovery of infrastructure with a total DG

capacity of 780 kW. In the scenario without considering infrastructure collaboration, water

supply station 2 is not restored, resulting in insufficient water supply to the hospital, and

the hospital’s operational capacity is at 90%. In the scenario considering infrastructure

collaboration, all water supply facilities are restored, and the hospital’s operational capacity

is restored to 99%. The recovery model, considering infrastructure collaboration under

the same power capacity, enhances the operational capacity of critical loads, making the

recovery strategy more efficient. It further demonstrates the collaboration between key

infrastructures and emphasizes the necessity and practicality of considering infrastructure

collaboration in the recovery strategy.

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6.2.3 Promoting the Integrated Development of Energy and Meteorology Technologies

Technological innovation is crucial for the integration of energy and meteorology. Based on

the investigation of the current application status and typical projects, and closely related to

the pathway of energy-meteorology integration, a development technology system for energy-

meteorology integration is proposed, consisting of 4 major domains and 12 technology

categories.

Climate sensing technology encompasses methods with the capability to comprehensively,

rapidly, and accurately perceive climate and meteorological elements, along with the

operational status of the power grid. It involves predicting the future operational situation

of the power grid and issuing warnings for potential climate and meteorological risks.

Firstly,

it covers climate and meteorological monitoring, forecasting, and the study of the

mechanisms. This entails establishing a comprehensive observation system for natural disasters

and daily weather conditions, enhancing the ability to predict extreme weather events, and

placing importance on summarizing, analyzing, and forecasting future climate and meteorological

Secondly,

parameters.

it involves intelligent monitoring of power networks and equipment. This

includes measurement devices for the entire transmission and distribution network system,

such as Phasor Measurement Units (PMU), and data acquisition and monitoring systems like

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA). It also encompasses intelligent monitoring

and detection devices for equipment, such as fault indicators, inspection robots, and sensor

Thirdly,

monitoring networks.

it incorporates power system warning technologies that utilize

methods like data fusion, state estimation, and probability situations to analyze and assess the

operational situation of the power grid under normal scenarios and the fault situation of the power

grid under contingency scenarios and extreme scenarios.

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Column 6.5

Pangu-Weather AI Model

Huawei Pangu-Weather is a large weather forecasting model based on artificial intelligence

(AI) and big data. It can provide more accurate and precise predictions for meteorological

elements and weather-related disasters compared to traditional numerical forecasting

methods.

The traditional numerical weather forecasting method is widely used in weather prediction,

extreme disaster warning, climate change forecasting, and other fields. However, as

computational power is limited and physical models become increasingly complex, the

limitations of this approach are becoming more apparent. Researchers are beginning to

explore new paradigms in meteorological forecasting, using deep learning to predict future

weather conditions.

Researchers from Huawei Cloud have introduced the 3D Earth-Specific Transformer

(3DEST) to handle complex and non-uniform 3D meteorological data, thus creating the

Pangu-Weather AI Model. The core of the method involves using a 3D variant of the visual

transformer to handle complex and non-uniform meteorological elements. Additionally,

a hierarchical temporal aggregation strategy is employed to train models with forecast

intervals of 1, 3, 6, and 24 hours, reducing iteration counts and errors. Its computing

speed is over 10,000 times faster than traditional numerical weather forecasts. It only

takes 1.4 seconds to complete a 24-hour global weather forecast, including variables such

as geopotential, humidity, wind speed, temperature, and sea-level pressure. The model

achieves a horizontal spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, a temporal resolution of 1 hour,

and covers 13 vertical levels, enabling accurate predictions of fine-grained meteorological

features. The model’s prediction accuracy and precision are comparable to the state-of-

the-art numerical models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

(ECMWF). Its capability to capture signals of extreme weather events, such as typhoon

paths and extreme cold waves, surpasses that of traditional models.

Planning and operation technology refers to the technology of identifying the weak links

of the power grid and taking improvement measures to optimize, adjust, anticipate,

and prevent the long-term and short-term impacts of climate change from planning and

operation. The first aspect

involves enhancing the planning of optimizing the grid structure

of the transmission and distribution networks to enhance adaptability, encompassing five key

areas: generation and load forecasting technologies, transmission network structure optimization,

distribution network structure optimization, multi-form storage planning, and demand-side

The second aspect

response technologies.

involves optimizing and adjusting the operation

mode of the power grid under extreme weather conditions, including three key areas: power grid

operation mode, emergency warning mechanisms, and enhanced decision-making for critical

The third aspect

equipment.

involves coordinated preventive strategies for power grid operation,

including a series of actions to be taken during power system operation, such as disconnecting

parallel transmission lines, reducing load levels that may occur during extreme weather,

rescheduling to minimize the impact of extreme events on power lines, and preparing backup

resources.

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Emergency recovery technology refers to the techniques employed when the normal

functioning of the power grid is disrupted. In such situations, the power system promptly

initiates emergency recovery and repair mechanisms to ensure the continuous supply

of essential loads and swiftly restore the power grid’s functionality to its normal state.

First,

there is disaster prevention and mitigation technology, which includes grid de-icing,

Second,

lightning protection, and wildfire prevention in the power grid.

there is the optimization

of emergency personnel and maintenance workers, materials, and equipment deployment.

Emergency supplies include communication, lighting, power supplies, and auxiliary materials.

Regarding supplies such as batteries and mobile power supply vehicles, optimization in

Third,

deployment is necessary to minimize the duration of power outages for critical loads.

there are emergency control and recovery technologies for the power grid, including emergency

frequency control technology for AC and DC hybrid power grids, self-healing technology for urban

distribution networks, microgrid group control technology, and information intrusion defense

technology.

Column 6.6

　　　　The Grid De-Icing Technology Effectively Addresses

　　　　Extreme Rain, Snow, and Freezing Disasters

The ice disasters on power grids are widespread in more than 100 countries, including

China, Canada, the United States, Japan, and others, and are highly destructive. The

continuous increase of ice accumulation on power lines can lead to circuit tripping,

tower collapse, wire breakage, and even a catastrophic event, resulting in widespread

power outages and paralysis of the power grid. There have been over 1000 recorded

incidents of ice disasters on power grids. One notable event occurred in January 2008

in several southern provinces of China, where more than 700,000 power transmission

towers collapsed due to ice, leading to a halt in railway operations for seven days.

This event resulted in direct economic losses exceeding RMB 25 billion and power

interruptions for nearly ten million users. The prevention and control of large-scale ice

disasters on power grids have become a pressing technical challenge for the global power

industry.

In response to the characteristics of ice disasters on power grids, State Grid Hunan

Electric Power Company Limited has achieved automatic emergency decision-making for

ice disasters on the power grid by combining ice disaster forecasting technology with real-

time monitoring and warning technology for ice coverage. Firstly, a system for forecasting

ice disasters on power grids has been established, incorporating long-term, medium-

term, and short-term forecasting techniques for ice coverage on the power grids. The

accuracy rates for these forecasts are 100%, 83.9%, and 98%, respectively. Secondly,

real-time monitoring, warning, and decision-making technologies for ice disasters on the

power grids have been established, and a monitoring and warning system for ice coverage

on the power grids has been developed. Thirdly, improvements have been made in the

technology for preventing and controlling ice disasters on the power grids, as well as in

the development of complete sets of equipment and anti-ice flash composite insulator

devices. A series of DC de-icing equipments, including fixed and mobile types, has been

developed.

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This technology has significantly reduced incidents of tower collapse, wire breakage, and

ice flashover tripping accidents. It has enhanced the power grid’s ability to resist ice and

snow disasters, improved power supply reliability, reduced the impact of ice-related power

outages on the national economy and people’s daily lives, maintained social harmony and

stability, and demonstrated notable social benefits. The technology has been promoted in

China, saving more than RMB 7.1 billion in investment for upgrading power transmission

lines against ice.

Figure 1 Severe Icing on Transmission Towers Due to Heavy Snowfall

Multi-system coordination refers to the technology where the power system collaboratively

utilizes internal and external resources to collectively address the impact of climate

change. Firstly,

there is the coordination of power source-grid-load-storage systems and

transmission and distribution. This involves the integrated use of controllable resources such as

microgrids, energy storage, and coordination between the main grid and the distribution network

to achieve secure power supply for critical loads and coordinated operation of power source-grid-

Secondly,

load-storage systems in both time and space dimensions.

there is the coordination

of electricity, water supply, and gas supply. Taking into account the normal operation of critical

infrastructure and aiming to maximize load functionality, coordinated protection strategies are

Thirdly,

determined.

there is the convergence of the three networks—energy, transportation, and

information. The forms and connotations of the three major networks have continually enriched

and evolved, showing a trend from weak and isolated networks to large interconnected networks.

This has become a crucial global infrastructure. Adapting to future climate risks requires the

coordinated collaboration and innovative cooperation of the three major networks.

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6.2.4 Establishing Improved Policy and Market Mechanisms

Establishing Advanced and Scientific Systems of Technical Standards

1

Promptly enhance the adaptability of equipment and facilities to extreme weather

conditions by reﬁning planning standards and evaluation systems.

The increasing frequency

and intensity of extreme weather events, as evidenced by numerous significant power outages,

underscore the need for a reassessment of the impacts of risks such as high temperatures, low

temperatures, freezing rain, etc., on power system equipment and facilities. Research efforts

should be focused on enhancing relevant design standards. By bolstering the climate resilience

of equipment and facilities during the insufficient energy phase of accidents, we can effectively

withstand the impacts of extreme weather events, thereby altering the course of accidents and

preventing major power outage incidents.

Strengthen climate risk assessment and deploy systems using energy and weather

integration technologies ahead of time.

Major outages induced by extreme weather in various

countries have shown that climatic elements have become an important factor affecting the

reliability of power systems. Undertaking research on advanced technology systems for integrating

electricity and weather in a moderately proactive manner can provide valuable references for the

future development of power systems, enabling them to adapt to extreme weather conditions and

avoid significant economic losses caused by similar power outage incidents.

Building a Precise and Full-Functional Climate Sensing System

2

Improve weather forecasting accuracy and promote precise weather forecasting services

for power operations. This will enable accurate prediction of risks in power supply.

The

escalating scale, frequency, and uncertainty of extreme weather events require shorter intervals,

longer forecasting cycles, and more comprehensive parameters in weather predictions. This

is essential for accurately estimating power shortfalls, ensuring sufficient response time, and

effectively preventing or reducing energy insufficiency issues within the system.

Establish warning standards and promote weather warning services for the power

emergency response system, ensuring the security of production and daily life.

By

establishing a graded alert standard, enhancing the timeliness and accuracy of extreme weather

alerts, and creating guidance for energy conservation and power outage warnings, it can facilitate

close coordination among the government, power companies, and electricity users. This helps

avoid unplanned power outages, minimizing the impact on electricity users to the greatest extent

possible.

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Forming a Market Mechanism and Emergency System that Combines Price

3

Guidance with Safety and Reliability

Refine the power market mechanisms to establish clear pricing signals.

Addressing

energy and capacity shortages in power systems during extreme weather conditions requires

improvements in market mechanisms. This involves refining the electricity market and fostering

collaboration between capacity markets, ancillary service markets, and other relevant sectors. By

establishing a pricing mechanism that accurately reflects the electricity supply-demand dynamics,

we can provide clear signals to guide the government, power companies, and electricity users.

Improve the emergency response system of the power grid to ensure safe and stable

operation.

In response to climate events that have significant impacts on the power system and

on the basis of improving the emergency plan system of power supply and building a complete

set of laws, systems, and mechanisms for emergency response, it is necessary to enhance the

monitoring and early warning systems, improve information and command structures, bolster

emergency teams, ensure material support, conduct training exercises, facilitate recovery

and reconstruction, and provide technological support. These measures will enhance the

comprehensive emergency response capabilities of the power industry to address unforeseen

public safety incidents. This, in turn, ensures the secure and stable operation of the power system

and safeguards national security and social stability.

Building a Climate-Adaptive Society with Broad Citizen Participation

4

Actively mobilize resources from the government, businesses, communities, and the public

to establish a society that adapts to climate change.

We need to strengthen the government’s

leadership and governance capacity, comprehensively engage in actions to help corporations

adapt to climate change, and foster a positive atmosphere in which the community adapts to

climate change. We also need to cultivate a broad public consensus on the concept of climate

adaptation and maximize the synergistic value of a society adapted to climate change and a

power system adapted to climate change.

Column 6.7

　　　The Copernicus Climate Change Service in Europe

　　　Contributes to the Transition of the Power Industry

The Council of Europe and the European Space Agency launched the Copernicus Global

Monitoring for Environment and Security in 2003. The programme primarily focuses on the

coordinated management and integration of satellite data and on-site observational data

to achieve dynamic monitoring of the environment and security. Under this plan, climate

change services are spearheaded by ECMWF, with the participation of 260 European

companies or organizations. They have established a globally focused climate database

oriented towards user needs. This database provides free data and open technical

services to users, including the wind energy sector, assisting them in achieving sustainable

development goals in response to climate change.

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Energy-Meteorology Coordination for a Resilient Energy Transition

The features and innovations of the Copernicus Programme are reflected in: first, it

provides climate data services for global wind resource assessment. It has established

a user-oriented global climate database, providing wind energy resource maps covering

various heights, including 50 m, 100 m, and 150 m, across the globe. Secondly, it has

established a new service system integrating multiple models. In seasonal forecasting,

results from climate model predictions from six institutions, including those from Europe,

the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the United States, are brought in. This

provides seasonal forecasts of wind speed, humidity, and temperature on a standard

isobaric surface at 1° x 1°, 10-m wind speed at six-hour resolution, and 12-hour resolution

globally for the next six months.

Achievements and values: Firstly, it stimulates the development of upstream and

downstream industries. The Copernicus Programme received a total investment of about

EUR 8.2 billion between 2008 and 2020, bringing direct economic benefits of EUR 16.2

billion to EUR 21.3 billion. Secondly, it improves the energy and climate service systems.

The Copernicus Programme has launched two projects: the European climate and energy

integration project and the energy and climate information project. These projects focus

on providing customized climate services for the energy sector, particularly in medium- to

long-term climate forecasting and estimation. This initiative assists energy enterprises in

planning for seasons in advance, enhancing the potential for climate resource development

and utilization. It also aids in effectively addressing climate change risks and mitigating the

potential impact of climate extremes on wind energy resource development.

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Main Conclusions

7

Main Conclusions

By building an energy system with clean production, electrified consumption and

wide-area allocation, the Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) can better realize

the inclusive, just and resilient energy transition, promote high-quality economic

development, ensure social justice, and reduce the global climate risk. It is not

only a safe, collaborative, cooperative and win-win development plan, but also a

practical plan that can be implemented, copied and operated.

7.1 GEI Promotes Inclusive Energy Transition

GEI takes into account energy needs and energy security of countries at different stages of

development, supports multiplier development of new energy through the coordination of clean

energy and fossil energy, accelerates the clean energy development, promote carbon neutrality

through inclusive energy transition.

Safeguard energy demand for economic and social development.

From now to 2050, the

average annual growth rate of global GDP is more than 3%. The vast majority of developing

countries are undergoing rapid industrialization and urbanization, and need efficient and sufficient

energy supply. In 2050, under GEI carbon neutral solution, the primary energy demand will be

about 19.3 Gtce, and the electricity consumption will be 82 PWh, which is much higher than that

of other typical carbon neutrality scenarios. It provides a strong guarantee for the sustainable

development of the global economy and society with high electrification and more efficient use of

energy.

Coordinated development of clean energy and fossil fuels.

The fossil power is transformed

from “electricity type” to “capacity type”, which mainly plays the role of safe supply guarantee,

flexible regulation and emergency backup support. The utilization hours of power generation

equipment are greatly reduced, and the power generation capacity is continuously reduced, so

as to realize decoupling of fossil power growth and carbon emission growth. Biomass, green

ammonia blending and other technologies are applied to achieve low-carbon transformation of

traditional fossil power supply, and zero carbon and negative carbon emissions are achieved

through technologies such as CCS and BECCS. Stable power sources such as fossil fuels and

hydropower can drive the development and utilization of three times the scale of wind and solar

energy. Compared with the baseline scenario, the average annual growth rate of global clean

energy consumption is increased by 4 times. In 2050, the proportion of installed capacity and

power generation of clean energy will increase to 90%, of which, 27.1 TWh installed capacity and

52 PWh power generation come from wind and solar power will become the main power supply.

Accelerate global carbon neutrality.

The whole society shall achieve the goal of carbon

neutrality in three stages, i.e. peaking period, rapid mitigation period and neutralization period.

By 2030, carbon emissions peak of the whole society shall be reached, the peak value of carbon

emissions shall be controlled at 44.5 GtCO₂and the peak value of carbon emissions from energy

activities shall be 35.9 GtCO₂. The whole society shall achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The

energy and power sector shall achieve carbon peak before 2030 and net-zero carbon emissions

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Inclusive, Just and Resilient Energy Transition: GEI Solution and Practices

around 2060. Among mitigation driving factors, the cumulative mitigation contribution of energy’s

“clean replacement” and “electricity replacement” is about 80%, which plays a leading role.

According to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities stipulated in UNFCCC,

developed countries need to take the lead in achieving net-zero emissions of electricity by 2035,

and net-zero emissions of the whole society by 2050 or earlier, and strive for emission space for

developing countries.

7.2 GEI Promotes Just Energy Transition

GEI promotes regional coordinated development and mitigation with a wider range of energy

interconnection, reduces energy cost and mitigation cost of the whole society, promotes the

development of green industry, improves energy accessibility, increases decent employment, and

achieves just energy transition.

Promote regional development and mitigation synergies.

Interconnection of global power

grids can accelerate large-scale allocation and large-scale development and utilization of clean

energy, and promote economic development of underdeveloped regions through energy

investment, energy transmission, and green zero-carbon industry transfer. Clean energy

investment drives two times of social capital investment, contributing 4.6% to global economic

growth. Power grid interconnection can make full use of time difference, seasonal difference and

resource difference of clean energy distribution, promote regional emission mitigation, accelerate

the process of carbon neutrality in various countries, and promote coordinated governance of

global energy, climate and environment.

Reduce the cost of social transformation.

Reduce energy investment. By 2050, the cumulative

investment in energy systems shall be about USD 97 trillion, accounting for no more than 2% of

the global GDP, which is lower than other carbon neutral scenarios. Reduce the cost of energy

use. The cost of electricity supply is reduced by 20% compared with the current cost, which

greatly reduces the energy burden of developing countries. Reduce the mitigation cost of the

whole society. The average marginal abatement cost is about USD 94 per ton of carbon dioxide,

which is lower than other carbon neutral scenarios.

Promote social justice.

Increase decent employment. Nearly 50 million jobs in the world shall

be increased by 2050, with the largest number of new jobs in Asia, Africa, Central and South

America. Improve energy accessibility. By 2050, the problem of population without electricity shall

be completely eliminated in Africa, Asia, Central and South America.

7.3 GEI Promotes Resilient Energy Transition

GEI ensures energy security and stability by improving the adequacy, flexibility and reliability

of energy systems, enhances infrastructure resilience, reduces climate risks, and achieves

transformation of energy resilience.

Safeguard energy security and stability.

On the production side, the phase-down of fossil

power source shall be optimized and a flexible resource system shall be built to ensure safe and

stable operation of energy and power systems under extreme weather conditions. By 2050, some

countries will retain a certain amount of fossil power as a peaking power supply and emergency

backup power supply. The installed capacity of new energy storage such as pumped storage and

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7

Main Conclusions

electrochemistry shall exceed 3.5 TW. On the consumption side, the flexibility of new power loads

is enhanced through technologies such as electrification, electro-hydrogen collaboration, and

virtual power plants. On the configuration side, the complementarity of power in different regions

is realized through power interconnection. By means of interconnection of power, hydrogen, heat

and other configuration systems, the flexibility of different energy systems is fully utilized, and

the cross-regional and cross-variety energy support capabilities under extreme conditions are

improved.

Enhance infrastructure resilience.

In the face of climate change and climate extremes, we

shall build a highly intelligent, active response and active recovery power grid system, deploy

backup power sources according to local conditions, enhance climate-proof level of energy

and power infrastructure, and build a climate-adaptive power system. We shall collaboratively

optimize key infrastructures, such as power grid and natural gas pipeline network, water supply

system, transportation system, and improve the collaborative disaster response capacity of key

infrastructures. We shall promote the development of energy and meteorological integration

technology, establish and improve policy and market institutional mechanisms.

7.4 Comprehensive Benefits of Energy Transition

GEI promotes the transformation of energy inclusion, justice and resilience, creates multiple

benefits of economy, society, climate and environment, and fully implements sustainable

development goals.

Create Ninefold Comprehensive Benefits.

The comprehensive benefits of GEI to promote

energy inclusion, justice and resilience transformation are huge. By reducing energy costs,

creating decent jobs, stimulating economic growth, and reducing climate risks, the comprehensive

benefits created by GEI shall accumulate to more than USD 800 trillion, which is equivalent to the

comprehensive value of nine USD for energy investment of one USD.

Comprehensively Promote Sustainable Development.

With the concepts of power grid

interconnection, clean replacement and electricity replacement as the core, GEI has different

degrees of positive synergy effects on the 17 sustainable development goals. With the goal of

implementing the Paris Agreement, GEI will comprehensively promote the realization of the UN

2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

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9 times

dollar of energy investment

1

USD

can be worth up to

trillion

870

USD

97

dollars in social welfare

9

trillion

Investment in energy system

Social welfare

Inclusive transition

Just transition

Resilient transition

GEI carbon neutrality

solution

Benefits in

2050

27.1

52

14

Installed capacity of

wind and solar power

Fossil fuels and hydropower

TW

PWh

drive a

expansion

threefold

Electricity generation

of wind and solar

in new energy development

Accelerating

clean

Accelerate fossil

fuel phase-out

Reduce fossil fuel

subsidy

development

Trillion USD

Inclusive

Final energy

consumption

Achieving highly clean

and electrified energy

consumption

Gtce

PWh

15.1

82

2030

2060

transition

Ensuring energy

demand for

development

Electricity consumption

Achieving global

carbon peak before

Meeting the temperature

control goals of the Paris

Agreement

Promoting

global carbon

neutrality

Achieving global carbon

neutrality before

Clean energy investment

Contribution rate

to global economic

growth

drives a

increase

Promoting regi-

onal cooperative

development

two-fold

4.6%

in social investment

Energy system

investments

Trillion USD

97

20%

94

Reducing energy

transition costs

Reduction in elect-

ricity supply costs

Reducing

social

transition

costs

Marginal

abatement cost

USD/tCO₂

Just

Increasing decent

employment

Creating new jobs

=10 million

=100 million

transition

Promoting

social equity

and justice

Enhancing energy

accessibility

Number of electrified

unelectrified population

Reducing SO₂emissions

Reducing NO_Xemissions

million tonnes/year

SO₂

64

100

14.6

Synergistic mitigation and

pollution reduction

NOx

Achieving

sustainable

development

Reducing fine particulate

matter emissions

million tonnes/year

TW

Enhancing energy

Installed capacity of

the new-type storage

’

system s resilience,

Ensuring

energy

security

3.5

22

flexibility, and reliability

Resilient

transition

Coordinated mitigation

and adaptation to reduce

climate risks

Avoiding climate losses

Reducing

climate

risks

Trillion USD

Figure 7.1 GEI Promotes Energy Transition to Create 9 Times Comprehensive Benefits

152